2019 Phillies Season Discussion

[julio]

I wonder if they've placed anyone of waivers or will? Would someone take the rest of Juan Nicasio's year and salary? Probably not.

You can easily tell if they've asked waivers on a player. That player may or may not be DFA'ed pending the waiver claim period (48 hours), but after that period, the player MUST be either outrighted or released (if not claimed). So if nobody is claimed, outrighted or released, nobody has been placed on waivers.

Since the trade deadline passed, Dylan Cozens has been released (8/1), Mitch Walding has been outrighted (8/3), and Yacksel Rios has been claimed off waivers (8/3). That's all, so far.

[Austinfan]

Cole is the type of pitcher you add in 2-3 years, after you've won 90 games and want that piece to take you to the next level, though I'd prefer to have a deep enough farm to trade for someone like that with 3 or so year left (Verlander), if the window is wide open you bite the bullet and overpay.

[andyb]

I think they go and get one starter, with their preference being a trade for a controllable arm. Then they really hope Howard is ready by midseason next year.

[Austinfan]

If Smyly finishes strong (he's consistently throwing 92-93, so looks like he's past the TJ) I think they give him 2-3 years, hopefully Arrieta can return from surgery. Not sold on Velasquez but he could fill in for a year before moving to the pen. Still need two other starters (want at least 6 to start the season).

[andyb]

Smyly is still giving up home runs. He is probably not that well suited for CBP. If they keep him it is most likely year to year as depth. Vargas might be more likely to be back than Smyly (it can be done for 1 year and $6 million).

[Lawman]

Courtesy of MLBTR, here's the available FA starters. I've highlighted the few that interest me.
Starting Pitchers

Brett Anderson (32)
Chris Archer (31) — $9MM club option with a $1.75MM buyout
Jake Arrieta (34) — can opt out of remaining one year and $20MM unless Phillies exercise a two-year, $40MM option
Homer Bailey (34)
Clay Buchholz (35)
Madison Bumgarner (30)
Trevor Cahill (32)
Andrew Cashner (33) — $10MM vesting/player option
Jhoulys Chacin (32)
Yu Darvish (33) — can opt out of remaining four years and $81MM
Gerrit Cole (29)
Marco Estrada (36)
Kyle Gibson (32)
Gio Gonzalez (34)
Cole Hamels (36)
Matt Harvey (31)
Jeremy Hellickson (33)
Felix Hernandez (34)
Rich Hill (40)
Derek Holland (33) — $6.5MM club option with $500K buyout
Dallas Keuchel (32)
Corey Kluber (34) — $13.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Wade LeBlanc (35) — $5MM club option with a $450K buyout
Wade Miley (33)
Shelby Miller (29)
Matt Moore (31)
Ivan Nova (33)
Jake Odorizzi (30)
Martin Perez (29) — $7MM club option with a $500K buyout
Michael Pineda (30)
Drew Pomeranz (31)
Rick Porcello (31)
Jose Quintana (31) — $11.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Clayton Richard (36)
Tanner Roark (33)
Tyson Ross (33)
Hyun-Jin Ryu (33)
Ervin Santana (37)
Drew Smyly (29)
Stephen Strasburg (31) — can opt out of remaining four years and $100MM
Julio Teheran (29) — $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Jason Vargas (37) — $8MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Edinson Volquez (36)
Michael Wacha (28)
Adam Wainwright (38)
Zack Wheeler (30)
Alex Wood (29)

[allentown]

[quote="andyb, post:1469, topic:51324"]
I think they go and get one starter, with their preference being a trade for a controllable arm
[/quoteanI think that would be a mistaken priority. I think Cole should be the priority (or another #1/#2 SP FA). We need to add talent to the organization, not swap the deck chairs. We should still have cap space to extend Realmuto/Nola and sign a top FA. Going forward, our young guys like Howard, Baum, Stott, Haseley, and Medina/Moniak/Garcia/Morales/Marchan, will be worth a lot in producing while helping us stay below the lux cap over the next 6-8 years. Several of these guys can help the team next season. We are still at the stage of this cycle where it makes sense to use our $ resources. I am 180 degrees diametrically opposed to AF's position on this issue. A big contract today can be borne. A big contract two or three years from now is going to be much more constraining. This is what ended the last Phillies golden era: too many big FA contracts late in the cycle at a time when our home-grown core was also big $ and we had little/no cheap performers up from the farm. Keep raiding the farm and this cycle will abort, before it is fully underway.

[Austinfan]

Problem with a big FA contract to a pitcher is the first three years you have a good chance of getting value, the last three years? If you think the Phillies are already a 90 win team that just had bad luck, it might be worth it, if you think the Phillies are an 80-85 win team then we're two years too early to make that move.

To me, build the lineup, build the farm system, get to where this team was around 2006/2007, then make the big move, but not a Garcia trade. A Halladay/Lee trade (but not Oswalt, that was a silly move, as was Pence, once you're good enough, try to sustain excellence long enough to get lucky).

[EDmuch]

For the time is NOW thinking, Corey Kluber could be an interesting choice. Of course we have to see how he pitches once he gets back on the mound. But he has been a horse through out his career.

[Dirk41]

The idea of another year of Jake Arrieta is really sad

[andyb]

It is not necessarily a "problem" per se if you have an organization producing a steady stream of young talent (or if you trade prospects for less expensive veterans). It is a problem that any good GM with the ability to have a $200 million payroll should be able to manage. The Dodgers and Yankees do it all the time. You don't make expensive free agents your entire strategy. But they should be part of it if you have money and lack talent at a position.

This was part of the cost of the Crawford and Alfaro and Sanchez deals. Giving up close to 20 years of service time on those players to get 4 years of Segura and 2 years of Realmuto. Those deals robbed us of some flexibility, less because the players we traded for were expensive but more because playing Crawford and Sixto and Alfaro and paying them less would have allowed us to pay more in other places.

[zambonir]

At this point it seems like they need two starters. One in trade and one in free agency. Unless you think Howard starts the year in the rotation. But yes, they will be trying to win the NL East and make the playoffs next year. What they probably need is to trade (or non-tender?) Cesar and get another Kingery/Whit Merrifield type to start the year, and then hopefully Bohm takes over 3B and Kingery goes to 2B full-time.

Arrieta has been a competent 4th starter, just not the 2nd starter we paid for. But that was the price of getting him to sign with a 66-win team. If he has successful surgery and makes some adjustments he can be a very useful piece at the back of the rotation next year.

I just wonder if any of of the three homegrown(ish) starters will be in the rotation next year.

[Taudawg]

The only certainties for 2020 rotation is Nola and Arrieta. There's not much else they can do with Jake but hope he can be a #3-4. If the he pitches okay and the Phils are out of contention next year, he could be flipped at the deadline. I think they pick up Vargas' option year and he is their #5. Sign or trade for another pitcher and let VV and Eflin fight it out for the final spot. That's still not a strong rotation when compared to what our division opponents will roll out.

I prefer two new starters and Vargas at 5.

[Lawman]

and then hopefully Bohm takes over 3B

I'm thinking that Bohm should be pushed to AAA by the end of this year?

[zambonir]

Well, it kind of is the end of the year already.

I dunno. Reading inflates power and his BA is way down there so if he did go to LV he would probably finish on a down note. But, it would be a challenge that allowed him to come back strong in Allentown next season. And of course Haseley pretty much made the direct jump to MLB.

Can't completely rule out giving him the call-up either, of course. Service time be damned.

[Taudawg]

2020 schedule is out

Philadelphia Phillies Schedule

Hope springs eternal

[julio]

Can't completely rule out giving him [Bohm] the call-up either, of course. Service time be damned.

If Bohm doesn't get a September cup of coffee, IMHO that would not be about his service time clock, but about 40-man roster slots this November 20th.

[andyb]

Wednesday game is on ESPN and should be Nola vs Hamels. If we are talking 2 pitchers (and depending on their decisions regarding the 2 lefties currently in the rotation), then it would be logical to think of Cole on a short deal (1 or 2 years with vesting options) for one of the pitchers we need. It will be good to see him back in Philly also.

Look at how his FIP has dropped back to normal levels once he got out of Texas. He is not 100% of what he used to be, but he might be 80% to 90% and changeup pitchers tend to age pretty well if they can maintain the proper separation of speed on their pitches.

[Austinfan]

I'd much rather go for Hamels than Cole THIS winter, pitchers like Cole are always available (1 or 2 every free agent session), but it'll be much easier to land one after the team is a proven contender. Hamels would be a great story, a perfect foil for Nola. Nola - Hamels - Arrieta - Smyly - Velasquez with Medina, Howard in AAA and maybe move Suarez back to AAA to start and make room for LH RPs like Gilbert, Davis, Singer, etc.

One the Phillies have hit the 90 win mark, and are considered a real contender, they should have both the money and panache to land a top FA pitcher without a gross overpay.

[andyb]

Teams do not and should not have to wait till they get to 90 wins before they consider top free agents. That is just a silly benchmark. We all seem to agree here that this was something like an 86-88 win team if our injuries had not been so severe. One does not need to wait till some magic 90-win level to go after free agents.

Free agents are not the ONLY thing we should do. But getting a top starter is going to cost us money or prospects. They do not grow on trees and we can't just wait for the farm system to churn them out (and we did narrow our top starter options in the minors from 2 to 1 with the Sixto trade). We need to do one of those things. Each method of acquisition has risk. Hopefully the GM will make the right choice.