2019 Phillies Season Discussion

[Austinfan]

I'd focus on building the lineup first, go back to two decades ago, starting in around 2004 they build a lineup around a group of young hitters, then made that horrible Garcia trade instead of being patient with young pitching. Pitching is so variable (see the Mets the last few years) that I'd make sure I have the lineup (and talent behind them) before pouring a lot of resources into pitching (Arrieta, Robertson, Neshak, Hunter show the perils of pitcher free agents).

If you can build a team that can score 5+ runs a game, you only need a few key pitchers and you can patch around the rest of your staff. If you can't hit, you need a deep, quality pitching staff, and that's much harder to maintain.

[allentown]

All teams should be optimistic going into the season.

Yes, although there have been seasons in which that was next to impossible for Phillies phans and players. Still, there was 1993 as proof that magic can happen. While every team can have optimism going into the season and bad teams have had very good ST records leading to undue optimism -- during the past two seasons the Phillies have played well and had a very good record for big chunks at the start of each season. Both seasons they collapsed. This is different than many Phillies years, when they gave hope by winning toward the end of a losing season. Our expanded stat analysis department and the higher ups need to determine why these collapses happened. Last season's collapse was post-trade-deadline. This year injuries to pitching played a big role, but so did problems with the offense. Even before all of the pitching injuries, there were SPs who started this season as lesser selves of their 2018 version. Management introspection is vital for improvement. There are problems with our baseball people/analytical staff which still need fixing.

[Austinfan]

I think the biggest problem is a lot of prospects were overrated and didn't step up.
Some was bad drafting, some was that RA's trades weren't that productive in hindsight.

Hoskins, Kingery and Nola are pretty much it.
Almost every other young player was obtained in trades by RA before he left other than SD.
[Alfaro], Eickhoff, Williams, Eflin, Pivetta, Velasquez, Arano, DLS - and none have become core players

Too many misses, Quinn, Franco, Cozens, Altherr, Knapp, Walding, Pullin, Dugan, Perkins, Green, Asche, Buchanan, Gonzalez, Murray, Milner, Anderson.
Crawford until he was traded
players obtained in trades: Joseph, Valentin, Thompson, Lively, Appel, Gilbert

[mdougherty12]

The Ken Giles trade was Klentak, not Amaro, so Velasquez, Appel, etc. are on his ledger. De Los Santos is a Klentak acquisition, too.

[zambonir]

The Amaro era is certainly on Amaro, most notably that with the exception of Hamels they waited so long to trade everyone that none of the guys they got in return were actualy ever expected to be great. They were a mix of modest prospects and lottery tickets, for aging, flawed players (Rollins, Utley, Ruiz, the unpopular Papelbon. That Robert Hernandez actually turned into some useful pieces briefly says it all.)

In addition to VV, Appel and De Los Santos being Klentak, Arano was an internal player no?

But every GM makes an internal scouting decision about every player he inherits and Klentak has whiffed repeatedly, including on Herrera. And every time he's decided to stick with guys he might have been on the fence about (from Williams and Crawford to Herrera and Franco to the starting rotation) it has not worked out.

From a PR perspective they would have been better off if last year's team had been .500 wire-to-wire and this year's team was making a late run for the wild card instead of resting on its early-season record (even if injuries were to blame). On paper there is nothing wrong with going from 66 to 80 to 86 wins (we hope) and expecting things to bear fruit in a manager's third season (and the GM's fifth). But that would be a much better argument if they hadn't set up 2019-2020 as win-now years.

It's all well and good to say you should develop hitters like in 2004 but that only works if you have the players. Our 100% homegrown 2017 starting 8 (if you include Herrera) won 66 games and only two players are left. The '03-'06 Phillies won 85 games or more every season.

[allentown]

Too many misses, Quinn, Franco, Cozens, Altherr, Knapp, Walding, Pullin, Dugan, Perkins, Green, Asche, Buchanan, Gonzalez, Murray, Milner, Anderson.
Crawford until he was traded

First of all: I cannot accept the notion of "Crawford until he was traded." Crawford remains Crawford with the skills which caused the Phillies to draft him and for the majority of baseball writers/draft analysts to declare him the last of the top prospects remaining on the board when he was drafted. What changed was the instruction, coaching, and pattern of utilization he experienced in a different farm/MLB system. In other words, the Phillies approach was ruining him and his career was saved by a change of scenery. Crawford is a plus and a hit for our scouting side and a big black mark against our development and MLB manager/coaches sides.

Second: A lot of those guys you as 'misses' and evidence of bad drafting simply are not. Most are less than primo-round draft picks or not-that-large international bonuses. Dugan was done in by a string of injuries, but displayed strong hit skill on the farm. Quinn is not as good a hit guy, but showed good speed and D in the minors and has hit well of late for the Phillies. His problem also is injury. I can't lay either Dugan or Quinn on the scouts or point to them as evidence of bad drafting. The other guys on your list: mostly non-primo picks whom we got too excited about and who had their moments on the farm and even in the majors, as Asche did. Walding was a 5th rounder. He did better than your average 5th rounder. Asche a 4th rounder who logged two decent, if not good, seasons in Philly. That counts as a success for scouts on a 4th round pick. He regressed in the majors. Major league coaching? Cozens probably was a draft-day reach as a 2nd-rounder. He was more a football player and an example of drafting for raw power. At Reading he was able to translate raw power to in-game power. Can't know, but suspect we could have gotten him in the third round. He flamed out against the more experienced junk ball artisans in AAA. He's not our worst 2nd-rounder, but was a big gamble in that round. Zach Green was a 3rd rounder from whom we perhaps expected too much. He had a good age 24 season at Reading/Allentown, then a cup of coffee with the Giants, but not enough bat for a 1B, which is what his defense settled down to. He's an example of we haven't done especially well developing H.S. hitters. I see Altherr as a success and one of our better H.S. position picks -- a 9th rounder who logged one quite good year in Philly and had good D plus a just above .700 OPS in the majors. That's not an example of bad drafting. He's a guy who perhaps loomed too large in our thinking as fans who closely follow the minors. That's because the overall farm was so weak and he stood out.

[California_Dreamin]

Look, anyone who doesn't feel this years Phillies are an unmitigated OFFENSIVE disaster is merely fooling themselves. They are and if management doesn't spend the entire off season finding out why then this entire year has been a waste of time.

Nearly EVERY team in baseball is hitting the crud out of the baseball this year, almost everyone BUT the Phillies. Heck, just yesterday, in one day alone we saw TWO guys who possibly don't have baseball cards yet hit 3 home runs in a game. We saw several teams hit 3-6 home runs in a game, we saw multiple teams score double digit runs and one team scored 23 runs!

The Phils might not score that many on this weeks road trip. I don't want to hear about injuries, suspensions, slumps or Tastycakes changing whats in their cream filling. This team has a seismic problem offensively and while I believe it is philosophical, its not important what I think but what can be done to fix it.

I admit it, I absolutely loathe Kapler and its not just his managerial style but his daily blather which seems so phony to me. Yesterday he laments the fact that the Phils need to find a way to manufacture runs....yet it is precisely HIM who has almost had an apoplectic refusal to do things that help manufacture runs.

The team never hits and runs, rarely steals bases [I would let Quinn run EVERY time he gets on], doesn't know a baseball bunt from a football punt, and is the leader of a team that strikes out and has less success getting runs in from 3rd base and less than two outs than almost any contender in baseball. And I use the word contender loosely.

And NO MORE talk about how this Kapler led group has only had such and such days under .500 since he took over. Balderdash. Since August 1 last year, over 1 year of play the team is several games under .500 and given the state of the team right now, by the time King Cole and the Cubs leave town next Thursday, I think theres a good chance they are under .500 this year.

Phillie phans should be justifiably angry. The league is hitting up a storm, most teams at least play exciting offensive ball and the Phillies? A single is seen as almost as newsworthy in Philadelphia as the signing of the Declaration of Independence. Come to think of it, the signers probably would have hit just as well, even at their age. And they certainly had a better plan of attack than Kapler's Kalamity.

[zambonir]

I don't want to hear about injuries, suspensions, slumps or Tastycakes changing whats in their cream filling.

It's Tastykakes (and kreme). I don't think we can overlook this as a factor though, if true.

I actually don't care that much if they don't manufacture runs. Small ball isn't going to help them score five runs a game, let alone eight. I care that they aren't hitting home runs (or doubles). And that they aren't really even getting guys on base. Those awful RISP/LOB games from a week ago look great compared to two of these last three games in SF. The way they beat the Giants Friday is how they are supposed to win.

We're not gonna get a new manager who loves bunts and hit-and-runs next year, that's for sure. Not sure we've had one since Larry Bowa even.

[julio]

Phillie phans should be justifiably angry.

Because we're being denied something we're entitled to?

Disappointed, because the season has not gone as we expected - as we assumed it would? OK, I can see that. But anger?

Perhaps this is just a choice of word I wouldn't agree with, but it seems to me CD is expressing an emotion that, to me is just out of place. This is a baseball team. Not life. Not important. Anger?

Also... I have to add... this season - the roller-coaster, the disappointment - reminds me of 1979, when a Phils club that was expected to be dominant, fell to a fourth-place finish. Stuff happens.

[zambonir]

In some ways there is no point about debating anything, because people are either slaves to their paradigms or slaves to their emotions, even if there's still room for nuance. A lot of fans do indeed get very angry, or very sad. Any fan who doesn't - I'd include myself - can't really find common ground for a shared experience or even conversation. I still argue with Hank over at the old Phils listserv all the time, but he gets personally aggrieved by every 9th inning baserunner, strikeout with RISP or even injury (blaming the players personally, or blaming the team for abusing them, as folks here are more wont to do). I don't. It's like we're watching a different sport.

To me being a baseball fan is a masochistic choice. I still enjoy that aspect of it intellectually but pain and anger are a fair response. It is part of the entertainment product - the thrill of victory, the agony of defeat - and to say it's not a valid emotional responose is no different from saying joy wouldn't be valid in response to wins. Either way, still not life, or important. But we're not really here to talk about what's important in life.

[jimbomill]

Look, anyone who doesn't feel this years Phillies are an unmitigated OFFENSIVE disaster

It sure seems that way. Our two best RBI producers (Harper at 80 and Hoskins at 69) are now Table setters, batting 1 and 2 yesterday. Can't say the move worked, I think Hoskins is batting under .100 the past week.
I can understand our bullpen woes, (no Hunter/Robertson et al) but our hitters aren't doing their job and that's on the player. However, the lineup, which is the manager's onus, is simply not working, also. It is a team-wide malady.

[Lucky_Beagle]

I agree....Harper was not signed to be a lead off hitter. He is not being paid to be a lead off hitter. I understand Cutch was injured, but the team has to be able to find someone else capable of lead off.

[BostonRoss]

To me being a baseball fan is a masochistic choice.

Well, being a Phillies fan is, anyway!

Whatever way you choose to characterize your negative emotions when things aren’t going well for the Phillies, we’ve all had them so many times over the years that we have found ways to deal with them. I like to think that I don’t need to tie my self worth to the fortunes of my favorite teams. I believe that it’s true that only once in my lifetime has Philadelphia had back to back years with championship teams. You don’t get to be my age without figuring out how to deal with that.

[Lawman]

This. I get thew pitching not being all that good. But, and I've said it before. I expected more from this offense. I'd liek to understand why we're not getting it.

[David_Criss]

Looking like Arrieta may have thrown his last pitch for this season. Am I wrong for hoping he has the surgery now and goes on the IL? Its not like he is helping the team on the mound, but who replaces him then? Irvin, DLS, Pivetta, Eflin - might be nice to get a couple more looks at some of those guys in the rotation as the season winds down.

[Austinfan]

Yeah, I see the rest of this season as an audition for next year.
Unless there's a miraculous turnaround, they're not going to end up within sniffing distance of the wildcard.

The Phillies do have serious talent on the way, Howard, Moniak, Bohm, Stephen, Medina and a bunch of young RPs.
Stott a year or so behind, Simmons looking like a wildcard, along with Aparicio.

Harper is a foundation piece, while the other contracts won't be a problem when the young talent arrives (Cutch, Arrieta). Realmuto's extension would be my priority, then shop for pitching patches.

This organization isn't a disaster area as some would suggest, they can do better, but the drafts overall have been pretty solid since 2014, even 2015, whiff on Randolph but hit on Kingery.

[jimbomill]

Am I wrong for hoping

Not in my opinion. He's eating innings, but not many as they appear to be small bites and not many of them

[Lawman]

then shop for pitching patches.

Question is do you back up the truck for Gerrit Cole?

[jimbomill]

Question is do you back up the truck for Gerrit Cole?

Oh yeeaahhh. Not sur if he'd come here, though.

[Taudawg]

Cole is going to get 5-6 years easy, plus there's the QO. As great as he is, I wouldn't be in on him. This will be his 4th season out of the last 5 over 200 innings. He is the only "ace" in this years' free agency so price will be driven up. Lots of 2s and 3s. I would prefer 2 of those at less money and years and no qualifying offer attached. Too many areas to fix to put 30 mil a year in one pitcher.

I do think the Phillies should start thinking about next year and playing the kids. Haseley should be playing every day and perhaps Quinn as well.

I wonder if they've placed anyone of waivers or will? Would someone take the rest of Juan Nicasio's year and salary? Probably not.