2019 Phillies Season Discussion

[zambonir]

For every Chris Coste there are 99 not-Chris Costes, that's why he got a book deal.

Nothing wrong with AAAA players who end up making the most of their chances but not really what the Phillies need right now. Heck, Williams tearing it up in Lehigh doesn't even help.

[bkox]

There are 111 pitchers with at least 50 GS from 2017-19. Pivetta ranks 106th in ERA. Eflin ranks 93rd, Velasquez 94th. If they can find better roles, like Pivetta in bullpen, it forces Phillies to reconsider 2020 rotation: https://t.co/UGarjQ8fpW

— Matt Gelb ( @MattGelb ) July 29, 2019

[EDmuch]

That really is an indictment of the astonishing inability of Klentak and his minions to effectively evaluate baseball talent. Maybe there is still room in baseball for baseball men rather than computer geeks.

[phillychuck]

Or maybe there are good and bad baseball men, and good and bad computer geeks. The Red Sox are probably the most computer-oriented team in the majors right now, and I envy their success. Dodgers may be a close second.

[julio]

Maybe we'd all be better off if we didn't condemn individuals by lumping them into "out groups" that we choose to mock.

[Austinfan]

Problem is most top starters had a bad year or two starting their career, Nola is an exception, go back and look at Halladay's first seasons:
22: 149 IP, 3.96 ERA, 5.36 FIP
23: 67 IP, 10.64 ERA, 6.47 FIP
24: 105 IP, 3.16 ERA, 2.23 FIP
25: 239 IP, 2.93 ERA, 2.97 FIP

The point is simply that with young pitchers, you have to focus less on performance and more on projection.

To me, Eflin has the highest upside because he has velo, 94-96, and a full repertoire of pitches, he needs to improve his secondary offerings and his command, but we're talking tweaks.

Pivetta belongs in the pen because he's a two pitch pitcher at 26, has a velo uptick in the pen, but shows no signs of either developing movement on his 4 seamer or developing a 3rd pitch.

Velasquez is on the bubble to me, he has the stuff to start but his command problems drive up his pitch count, He'll probably end up in the pen as a two pitch (FB/slider) RP because he hasn't been able to master the changeup.

DLS is headed to the pen if he can't develop that third pitch, that seems to be the back breaker for potential starters these day, having three pitches you can command at different speed and movement to keep hitters offbalance.

[andyb]

Pivetta's problem is not that he is a 2-pitch pitcher, it is that his curveball has been dramatically less effective this year than last. Plus it has been used more as teams now are calling for fewer fastballs.

You May Wish to Reconsider Nick Pivetta

It is hard to ascribe blame here. The pitcher and team and maybe even the baseballs (the seams are a bit different this year) could all be contributing to his decline. Even though his last couple of bullpen outings have been decent, I would decidedly not close the book on him as a starter. Both he and Velazquez have the raw ability to miss bats and one needs that in a rotation.

The Phillies probably made a mistake in devoting 3 rotation spots to young pitchers with uneven track records. We really did not have much adequate depth at AAA (Eickhoff, De Los Santos, Suarez, and Irvin are all lacking something as starter candidates).

[EDmuch]

PC, of course you are correct. But it seems awe inspiring how our franchise is able to pinpoint and hire the more inept in each group.

[EDmuch]

Consistent with the analysis in the Fangraphs article, Pivetta has been fairly impressive in his 3 multi inning relief appearances.

[nycphils]

The most analytics driven teams (non Phillies division) are probably the Astros, Red Sox, Dodgers and Rays. I don’t think analytics in general are the issue.

[EDmuch]

I meant misuse of analytics. I did not mean to criticize the use of analytic in general.

[zambonir]

They promised us the Phillies would finally have analytics. They didn't promise us they'd be good at it.

Seriously, if this era does fail, that will definitely be the question, along with whether MacPhail and Klentak (both of whom were essentially part of the same old Phillies cronyism, just from a different family tree) were the best men for the job. Kapler is my favorite hire of the three tbh, even if he does fail. At least he was a risk, and not a crony (except of Maddon and Friedman and Theo, nothing wrong with that).

With the exception of Kingery (and, duh, Nola and the equally proven Hernandez)) Klentak has yet to truly hit on an internal evaluation of the players he inherited. Including his belief that Hoskins could play LF, his decision to stick with Williams (until he didn't), Herrera and Franco, the young starters (at both MLB and AAA) and possibly the trades (i.e. Segura and Realmuto slightly disappointing and Crawford/Alfaro might pan out).

Plus whatever had them believing in the durability of Arrieta, Cutch and Robertson bit them too.

[Austinfan]

Cutch is durable, that was a fluke injury, could happen to any player.
There's a reason I argued against giving Arrieta 5-6 years, how many pitchers with a lot of mileage last that long?
But the bone spur is a re-occurence of a 2010 injury, not exactly expected.

Sometimes it's just a matter of luck, SD and Arano?
Hunter appearances last five years: 60, 58, 47, 61, 65, so it's not like he was injury prone
Robertson appearances last five years: 63, 60, 62, 61, 69, ditto
Sometimes it's common sense, Neshek at 38.

[zambonir]

I agree it's mostly luck. But analytics-based front offices sell the idea that they have metrics which more reliably predict durability and injury.

And I would say Arrieta's bone spur actually was to be expected - he didn't re-injure himself per se, it grew back (stemming from scar tissue, wear and tear, minor injury).

[bigegypt0417]

I agree it's mostly luck. But analytics-based front offices sell the idea that they have metrics which more reliably predict durability and injury.

And I would say Arrieta's bone spur actually was to be expected - he didn't re-injure himself per se, it grew back (stemming from scar tissue, wear and tear, minor injury).

Arrieta has done exactly what he was brought here to do...he's a middle of the rotation starter who eats innings. Even if he accepts his 2020 option and cleans up his elbow he's still a useful part of the rotation.

[zambonir]

He was brought here to be a clear #2 who got paid for winning the Cy Young Award; I don't mind that he's an overpaid #3 or 4, he's definitely an asset and pay has nothing to do with performance (especially future performance). But even this year's rotation was based on the fantasy that either Arrieta or one of the other guys would be a clear #2. And if Arrieta wasn't here this year they would have signed (or could more easily afford to currently trade for) another starter.

[zambonir]

Sidenote to today's trade: disappointing Rios never developed into a useful bullpen piece, though it feels like we are keeping others who are just as marginal. Guess we're finally out of 60-day candidates too.

[David_Criss]

Can't Cozens go to the 60-man? Rios makes sense though if you had to choose, especially given if Velasquez, Pivetta, Alvarez, Morgan, Dominquez, Neris, Robertson and Suarez along with Arano and Davis pretty much set for the 2020 pen and who knows if they try to re-sign Hunter.

[bigegypt0417]

He was brought here to be a clear #2 who got paid for winning the Cy Young Award; I don't mind that he's an overpaid #3 or 4, he's definitely an asset and pay has nothing to do with performance (especially future performance). But even this year's rotation was based on the fantasy that either Arrieta or one of the other guys would be a clear #2. And if Arrieta wasn't here this year they would have signed (or could more easily afford to currently trade for) another starter.

The phillies could absolutely afford to trade for another pitcher but the type of pitcher they need to help them isn't currently available or would cost more than anyone would want to give up.

[zambonir]

That's true right now, yes. But if they hadn't signed Arrieta last year it wouldn't have fundamentally altered the final result in 2018, and they'd almost certainly have Corbin or Keuchel (or even Morton) now. Which might not have fundamentally altered this season either, granted!

I'm not saying it was an egregious mistake, Arrieta's been better than most people think. But he was not signed to be a a middle-of-the-rotation innings-eater, particularly not last season.

Cozens can only be moved to the 60-day if he's called up the major leagues first. Could happen; more likely someone else will be moved off the 40 between now and tomorrow night anyway. Fundamentally, at least two of our starters are now relievers (Pivetta and whoever else) so it makes sense they'd lose a reliever (and we can only hope Robertson or Seranthony come off the 60). Next year doesn't matter (also who knows Rios might clear).