2019 Phillies Season Discussion

[nycphils]

From that article:

Kepler, 26, who is having a breakout season, has taken that lesson to heart. He said he had been too passive, partly because he looked up to Joe Mauer, who won three A.L. batting titles with the Twins. Mauer was so skilled with the bat that he could take pitches and be successful.

“But I’m not as good as Joe Mauer, so I’ve got to swing early on,” Kepler said.

Being around the Twins’ aggressive hitters kept Kepler mindful about pouncing on the first pitch he could drive. He is seeing fewer pitches per plate appearance and hacking at the first pitch more often.

“Pitching is getting better so you have to take your chances early on and not let too many go by,” he said.
Only the Pittsburgh Pirates’ All-Star first baseman, Josh Bell (11.3 percentage points), has had a larger spike in his swings at pitches in the strike zone than Kepler (10.9 percentage points) since last season, according to FanGraphs.

Scott Kingery is 3rd after Bell and Kepler.

[Patchmk88]

An interesting comparison to the Phillies hitting philosophy under Mallee. The Twins are cranking it while the Phillies are not.

Would you say our hitting philosophy under Mallee is to see a lot of pitches?

[flyers19rw]

Others may disagree but I would say that it is. See a lot of pitches in order to get walks and increase the on base potential as well as to drive up the opponents pitch count in order to get into their BP where, theoretically, you’re facing weaker pitchers than the starters.

[andyb]

Others may disagree but I would say that it is. See a lot of pitches in order to get walks and increase the on base potential as well as to drive up the opponents pitch count in order to get into their BP where, theoretically, you’re facing weaker pitchers than the starters.

That was and is certainly a benefit to the strategy. The benefit is probably decreasing these days as going through a batting order twice regardless of the number of pitches might be more of a factor in removing the pitcher. So teams are only trying to get 5 innings and/or 18 batters out of a starter and they don't really care if it takes 80 pitches or 100 pitches.

The remaining variable is the quality of the bullpen. Before this year the bullpen had better stats and now it has reversed. That could be because the starters' records are better from not having to pitch the 6th inning or the 3rd time through the lineup. Or it could be more bullpen innings by mediocre pitchers. Hard to tell for now.

[Austinfan]

I don't think the goal is to necessarily see a lot of pitches to draw walks.

At the beginning of a game, you want your first two hitters to take a few pitches so the team can see what the pitcher is throwing, after that it's more about just being disciplined, if you don't chase bad pitches you get yourself into better counts, which is a huge advantage for a hitter.

Hitters should know what they can handle, if you can't hit low and away sliders, then don't try and hope they're called a ball, rather than swing and miss or make weak contact. Worst that can happen is a called strike, which isn't much worse than the probable outcome of swinging. Same with high FBs, if your history says you can't handle 'em, lay off them. With less than two strikes, force the pitcher to make a good pitch, don't make his life easier.

If you follow this approach, you'll get ahead in the count, get more pitches in your sweet spot, and a byproduct will be you walk more.

[schillingfan]

I believe the best philosophy is enhance each player’s strengths and work around their weaknesses. Most hitters don’t have Hoskins eye.

[zambonir]

"selective aggression" is the stated philosophy. The question is, are players following it, not getting good enough guidance on following it, or just not executing.

Of course Mallee got fired by the Cubs, but they already fired his successor after one season too. I seem to recall the Phillies doing something similar (firing Thompson, bringing back Gross, who eventually got fired again himself). It's just what you do when you don't dump the manager (and can't blame the players, which is also like blaming the GM).

[phillychuck]

At the beginning of a game, you want your first two hitters to take a few pitches so the team can see what the pitcher is throwing

This is urban legend. Watch the dugout, nobody is looking at the at-bats at the beginning of the game that closely, and you can't see much from the dugout anyway. They've already seen the guy they're facing, at least on film and probably live before. This is American Legion stuff.

[LoneStarPhan]

Phillies Acquire Jose Pirela

This move leaves me wondering why.

[phillychuck]

This move leaves me wondering why.

OF depth in AAA?

[LoneStarPhan]

This move leaves me wondering why.

OF depth in AAA?

Well at least that major hole in the organization is plugged.

[Austinfan]

Jose Pirela

Pirela had a pretty good season two years ago, then imploded.
He's played 2B and OF, so he's good organizational depth.

[julio]

Pirela is occupying a 40-man roster spot. Generally, that's not something you want to do with a guy whose job is to fill out a AAA roster.

I have to think there's more to the story here...

[phillychuck]

Pirela has been a slow-mover through the minors, about 15-20% above the league average hitting once he settles into a level. He's killed AAA pitching in his last few stops there. The projection systems have him as about a replacement level (0 WAR) MLB player, which really isn't good. Who is he replacing at the big-league level? How is he any different than Gosselin or Rodriguez or Romine or Robinson? Puzzling move to me...

[andyb]

Love of flexible utility players might be love of mediocrity. Maybe he is a bit better defensively than the others. Miller does not seem plus anywhere.

[zambonir]

Miller's hurt. Rodriguez has been hurt. They must think they need the body. Also, maybe there's a trade coming?

Probably didn't make Logan Morrison very happy.

[Austinfan]

Gosselin is tearing it up in Lehigh, sometimes with these guys they learn how to hit in their late 20s, having utility skills keeps you around long enough to make adjustments, whereas if you're a 1B/LF type patience runs out much faster.

[bkox]

Why the Phillies traded for Jose Pirela, and why they could soon finally turn to a 5-man bench. https://t.co/BksR2XyTPs

— Corey Seidman ( @CSeidmanNBCS ) July 27, 2019

not sure I like how we have to post tweets now with the new twitter.

[zambonir]

Not sure what you're seriously trying to say about Phil Gosselin, it's a nice story if he gets another minor league deal next year. He's not gonna be on the 40 this off-season (if he even gets back on before that).

(Also it seems that Pirela has options, unlike Miller, Rodriguez or even Gosselin. So he can come and go if they want him, including the 5-man bench possiblity.)

[Austinfan]

Some guys do learn how to hit later in their careers, Coste comes to mind, finally got to the Show at age 33.

Catchers and utility guys have the advantage that they can hang around AAA and get call ups and multiple shots to make the roster (see Blanco a few years ago, a couple decent seasons at 31-32).

A player like Cozens is probably finished b/c he's basically a RF with little bench value, whereas Quinn, despite struggling, can play SS and CF/LF as well as pinch run, so he'll hang around and get multiple shots at showing he can play.