2019 Phillies Season Discussion

[Austinfan]

At some point you have to sink or swim with your kids.

We have a lot of good arms, the bullpen injuries have given a number of kids a taste of the Show, and that should help their development in AAA and maybe the team come August or so.

Suarez has been hampered by injuries, but give him a dozen AAA starts with a 93-94 FB, slider and good changeup.

De Los Santos has a live arm, but his slider needs work, has potential but really inconsistent.

Point is you need to know what you have in your organization going into the offseason, and the only way to find oiut is to play the kids - it's not like we're one trade from 95 wins.

[phillychuck]

As far as the the non-MLB, top-level arms go, De Los Santos has been a batting practice pitcher, Anderson has not even been able to get people out in AAA, Irvin has been good in AAA but mediocre in the show, Eickhoff is either done or a long way from working his way back, and Romero is throwing AAA BP. What seemed like a deep stable of arms isn't deep so much as awful.

[zambonir]

Hard to see any of 'em in next year's rotation.De Los Santos might have a future in the pen or be a good starter two years from now. They are all tradeable if anyone wants 'em (find a team that is further from contention, and doesn't have $, in a deal for someone who makes $).

Still think it is premature to say this team can't get back in the division race. But that day may come. One nice thing about having an analytics-minded front office is they see the same thing Fangraphs does, unless Middleton feels otherwise they aren't going to overestimate their probability. They certainly didn't last year (and arguably not even this off-season, by not adding pitcher or additional reliever on unacceptable contract terms).

[phillychuck]

An amazing stat--the LV Iron Pigs have used 33 pitchers so far this year. 33 before the all-star game. Just, WOW.

[LoneStarPhan]

I see Nick Williams went 4 for 5 tonight for the Iron Pigs and has a .419 BA. If he continues to hit well at AAA, he may well return to the Phillies later this season.

[Austinfan]

Williams is more likely to be traded for a pitcher.

Bruce in LF, Harper in RF, Haseley in AAA/Philly, not a lot of room for a LH OF who can't play CF and is mediocre defensively in the corners.
With Cutch back, Moniak coming on, and Bruce with one year left on a low cost deal (for the Phillies), Williams has no future here next season.

[California_Dreamin]

Boy, do I disagree. I think Nick Williams is a solid hitter and should be left alone in LF. Frankly, given the way the game is today, hitters are WAY more valuable than pitchers. I mean we have gone from "what, Steve Carlton only pitched 297 innings this year, cut his salary!" to "hey give me 5 innings and you are in the rotation for keeps!" Very sad, and with no evidence in my view that arms are being saved. Heck LHV has already used 33 pitchers and its not even July.

Right now Nick Williams is probably going to net you one of the bottom 11 of those 33 and I think it would be a huge mistake to move him when you will only get pennies on the dollar. As much as I like what Jay Bruce is doing right now I am skeptical that he is an everyday player.

If I had my druthers, Williams would play LF only. It wasn't that long ago that we all were very excited about his future. In fact, he and Crawford were two of our pinup guys! Crawford sure seems like a coming star and if Williams ever becomes one I would prefer it be with the Phillies.

If Neshek/Robertson/Arano/Hunter should show the Phillies anything its that are now becoming almost a dime a dozen whereas good hitters are becoming increasingly valuable.

[zambonir]

Williams just doesn't have a future here and the 2019 team needs someone who can play defense (and CF) more than anything right now. Bruce might not be an everyday player but Williams isn't either, at this moment. And McCutchen will be back in LF next year, probably on Opening Day.

I wouldn't trade him for nothing, no. Keep him in the org if he doesn't help you get an important deadline piece (key word "help"). But he's not going to get the chance to beat out Bruce and he can't even beat out Miller or Rodriguez for a bench spot since all he is is a hitter (and not yet a good one in the bigs).

[Austinfan]

And the 2020 team will have Cutch and Bruce in LF, a platoon of Earl Weaver's dreams, as well as Cutch swinging over to CF at times and maybe one of them gets cross-trained at 1B.

Harper of course, eats all the PA in RF.

And with Haseley, Quinn and maybe Kingery, it's awfully crowded, and that's before Moniak may push to be promoted.

[Florida_Sunshine]

Kingery needs to be our second baseman. It's likely unfortunate the Phillies have found no trade partner for Hernandez, but then it is time to let him go in the offseason. His money and position can be put to better use elsewhere.

[Lawman]

Starling Marte is a free agent after this season. Bats right handed and is listed as a CF by MLBTR. Picking him up, if he's available, allows him to either platoon w/ the LH Bruce in LF with Kngery in CF, or allows him to play CF and Kingery 2B or 3B.

[DurhamBull]

Bruce has been a superb pickup for the Phils, but keep in mind that his OPS with the Phils is about 200 points higher than his career average right now.

[phillychuck]

There is absolutely no evidence right now that shows Kingery would be a better 2B than Hernandez. Why not trade Kingery if the perception around the league is he's more valuable? Or why not keep both? I think Cesar gets no respect with Philly phans, but he's been a great player for us when he hasn't been hurt. I really don't get the "his money could be put to better use elsewhere" idea at all.

[julio]

There is absolutely no evidence right now that shows Kingery would be a better 2B than Hernandez. Why not trade Kingery if the perception around the league is he's more valuable?

Cesar Hernandez is 29, will be in his last year of arbitration in 2020; he'll get a raise from this year's $7.75 million salary; he'll be a free agent in 2021.

Scott Kingery is 25, is signed (with club options) through 2026, and won't make as much as Hernandez is making this year until 2024.

The reason there's no evidence about Kingery's defense at second base is that he basically hasn't played there since he was called up. But regardless of the defense question - you've got a guy who's 29, and a year from FA, versus a guy who's four years younger, and under control for eight years. Unless the older guy is demonstrably better (and not marginally so), this is a pretty easy choice.

This comparison kind of reminds me of something I might have seen concerning Placido Polanco vs. Chase Utley (with David bleeping Bell thrown in), along about 2003 or so.

[zambonir]

I feel like they are probably going to ride Cesar's contract out, right now there's no question the position player group is better with both of them. We'll see if that changes depending on other pieces. If nothing else, the past few days aside, Cesar is still better than Quinn or Franco, and so is Kingery, so having the latter to play their positions is still a plus.

I know the recent losing streak inspired a spate of "the Phillies aren't the Dodgers" but if Kingery is as good as Chris Taylor or Kike Hernandez there's no reason he can't succeed in the same way (and he is in fact doing so).

[phillychuck]

Maybe I wasn't clear. The Phils are better now and next year keeping both players; Cesar is a GOOD, MLB player. He's put up 12 WAR for the Phils over the last 5 seasons despite the awful 2nd half last year. I wouldn't rush to move on from him. Interesting you bring up Polanco, Julio, as they should have kept him and moved him to 3B when Utley came up. Lucky for us Kingery can apparently play anywhere but pitcher...

[LoneStarPhan]

I certainly agree that there is no need to force a trade of Hernandez but I do not oppose a trade that brings back his value.

[LoneStarPhan]

I saw posted on a fan site Facebook page that the Phillies half way point record of 43-38 was the same record they had in 2008, 2009, and 2010. It is one game under where they were after 81 games last season. The point is that this record is not so bad in spite of the concern many of us have felt and/or expressed in the past couple weeks.

[Florida_Sunshine]

To clarify, it is not that I am down on Cesar, it is that I think we need to find a position best suited for Kingery and allow that to let us look at other positions and fill them. IMO, Kingery is our future at 2B, not Cesar. Now if we did not have Kingery, I would be all for Cesar and his new contract, etc. But we will need his money elsewhere. Whether that starts in a year or two years is not material in my book.

[zambonir]

I don't think anyone thinks Cesar will be here past free agency. But, apparently, 2B is not a position of scarcity around the league and therefore his value in hand has consistently exceeded his trade value. I would also go so far as to say Kingery's value (be it in hand or trade, not that he's getting traded) is greater for playing multiple positions. Guys like Zobrist (before this year), Merrifield and Taylor are more valued than guys who just play 2B or 3B (but for the cream of the crop).

It will work itself out soon enough, whether in a month or six months. Kingery could be our 3B or CF next year, he could stay in the utility role that includes those positions, or they could hand 2B to him.

Seems to me the main problem with the super-utility guy is 3B tends to be their weakest position (or they can play it but not well). They all play middle IF and CF and can manage at either corner OF spot, but the arm and the footwork doesn't translate the same way. Miller doesn't really play it. Merrifield rarely plays it. Dietrich not good defensively.

It still would not surprise me if Kingery is never truly the starting 2B, even as Cesar moves on. Who knows what the roster will really look like (or even who the manager will be) in 2021 but right now it wouldn't surprise me if they acquire or develop more Swiss Army knife type guys.