2019 Phillies Season Discussion

[Lawman]

The Phillies are currently projected to finish with a below .500 record.

They rank 9th in the NL in RS, 10th in OBP, 11th in SLG. They rank 10th in ERA. 14th w/ a rotation FIP and last with a bullpen FIP.

They need to do more then "shuffle the deck." The numbers don't lie - this is a bad-mediocre team. They need to figure out what is wrong on an organizational level.

[zambonir]

But if all is lost, it really doesn't matter what they do now. The numbers may not lie but it's obviously mostly because there isn't enough talent. If they decide not to be buyers at the deadline and the season spirals into irrelevancy the coaching staff will be gone eventually too. If they think there's still a chance the injuries, bad luck and slumps can be arrested, well, the same people who have gone 6-16 also went 33-22 before that. What changed since then? The only answer is the roster (which also overachieved. Nola went 6-0 despite not pitching that great and the bullpen issues didn't actually cost them many games up to a certain point).

[bkox]

Matt Breen (matt_breen)

Matt Gelb (MattGelb)

[zambonir]

So you can fire 25 guys.

(Boy, i hope it's not these 25 all season though.)

Kind of ballsy of him, and may come back to haunt him, but if things go badly getting a new manager in August isn't going to do anything for next season, and could also be the kiss of death for the interim guy. Just ask Ryne Sandberg (and Pete Mackanin to some extent).

[andyb]

Let's hope making the playoffs does not depend on Fernando Salas.

[BostonRoss]

Let's hope making the playoffs does not depend on Fernando Salas.

Seems like a safe bet.

[zambonir]

I remember when J.C. Romero looked as bad as Fernando Salas. So has Nicasio.

Hey, listen, the bullpen full of proven guys didn't work, 'cause they all broke. And neither has the bullpen of throwing every young arm against the wall, because not one has stepped up as truly ready. A dumpster dive is always welcome (and probably better than claiming Trevor Rosenthal). For now.

[Lawman]

I think you have to decide how much "not enough talent" is there? On the 25 man roster, are you 5 players away? 3? 7? And, away from what - what's your goal? Will trading talent to make a run at the WC this year impede your ability to trade talent in the offseason to make a run at 1st place next year?

I think 1-2 minor moves is one thing, but I don't expect a major acquisition. Either this team, as currently constructed, stops the bleeding and plays well, or no playoffs. And, in which case, I suspect Kapler - or at least some coaches - won't be back next year.

[zambonir]

As things currently stand, they clearly need to acquire a position player and starting pitcher for this team to live up to its potential, and probably always would have (i.e. even before McCutchen's injury and Herrera's suspension they might have needed an OF, or 3B, and still do). The offense is not consistent enough to survive at 75% strength and between that and the poor defense the rotation needs an upgrade. The only question is what kind of position player it should be, a clear-cut starter (at 3B or in CF) or a bench upgrade to replace Kingery and occasionally spell Bruce.

For now they've got a couple of more weeks to see if anyone (Franco, Quinn, Haseley if he's close) look like pieces of the puzzle.

Where they might have to stand pat is the bullpen but that also remains to be seen.

Obviously if they don't win more over the next 3-4 weeks and also need as many as 4-5 players, maybe you walk away. Or maybe you just get a couple of pitchers and hope what you already have (perhaps including Herrera, and even Bohm) can add something after the deadline.

A lot also depends on controllability. If you acquire a starter or reliever who is also signed next year then you've made your deadline deal and your off-season deal at the same time.

[allentown]

I think you have to decide how much "not enough talent" is there?

This is a big issue. To make it an even bigger issue, the problem is not simply a talent shortage on the 25-man roster, there is also a talent shortage on the 40-man and among the younger players not yet subject to Rule 5 after this season. The Braves and Dodgers lead us in all of these categories. To get where we want the team to be requires sticking to a realistic plan to catch and pass both Braves and Dodgers.

Money is a big tool. It was necessary to add one of Machado/Harper, with Machado preferred. We need to add more FA talent, but that awaits the off-season. In general, I think we've over-spent on FA relievers over the years, but thankfully are moving more in the direction of growing our own. This season's budget spends too much on the pen.

The team is not in a position to trade young prospects for established talent. We are not at all well situated to be a buyer at the deadline -- back to the too weak at all levels. The odds of advancing in the playoffs, even if we go all in at the trade deadline are poor. The odds of even reaching the playoffs aren't good.

I want to see the remainder of this season, including the deadline action, geared to next season. Foremost is shaping next season's lineup and 25-man. First thing in my mind is finding a role for Kingery. He should play 2B or CF. LF is as dumb as 3B or SS. If the team craves a super sub, that is obtainable in FA, especially if we go with a guy who is more D and less O than Kingery. I think Hernandez should be traded -- not a bad player, but Kingery needs his spot. We need to make a final decision on Maikel Franco (I think we almost certainly need a new 3B, but if Bohm is close that can be a FA on a short contract) and Quinn (despite a good game with bat last night, I think his O is nearly as big a problem as his durability). We need to decide which of young pitchers are a part of the future rotation. More of those that don't fall into that slot need to be transitioned to the pen in the minors this season.

The international season is looking to be a mess. Perhaps the big $ need to go to Asia and Cuba and letting the LA staff take a lot of fliers on third-tier arms. Our record on LA position players isn't good and I'd be surprised if we can productively spend the money there, having had our top guy implode. We need to do better in LA. I think we've been going pitcher light/position player heavy both internationally/draft. It hasn't worked, or at least is far from clear that it is working.

Things may look different in 3 weeks, but if things remain much as they are today, at the deadline I trade Hernandez and a reliever and #5 starter type for young minor league prospects. Hope is good, but it can annihilate a good future. Now seems very much not the time to go all in. Middleton may need to enforce this as others may want to go all-in to save their jobs.

[Lawman]

Agreed, 100%.

[Austinfan]

I'd wait on Quinn, they just shifted him to RH full-time, which means he'll need time to get used to batting RH against RH pitchers (totally different angle), but he has more power, contact and confidence batting RH. Given the alternatives, it's a good situation to let him take his lumps.

Nothing wrong with Kingery playing a few positions, it certainly hasn't hurt his bat, same with Bohm as he works his way up. This adds to bench depth, since it allows more options for substitution whether they start or come off the bench.

[zambonir]

Middleton may need to enforce this as others may want to go all-in to save their jobs.

That would not be my read on Middleton. I think Klentak would the first to slow things down with MacPhail right behind him. Middleton pushed for Arrietta and he pushed for Harper over Machado. Stories this week have said not everyone agrees with the current path, which I interpret to mean someone wants to either shake things up or double down. That doesn't seem like Klentak, whose job is also probably safe for one more manager.

[allentown]

I don't entirely disagree with your read, in fact it confirms my view. It is Middleton who has consistently pushed to acquire FA talent for $ only. It is Klentak who has consistently preferred the RAJ route of saving $ by trading talent for guys on multi-year deals with other teams. I never thought Klentak had any desire to sign larger $ FA. I think Middleton's approach makes more sense than Klentak. Frankly, I don't know/understand MacPhail. The organization certainly hasn't focused it's draft/international bonus $ on acquiring pitching talent, so the could then concentrate on acquiring hitters by trade/FA. How much is he driving any of these decisions? I certainly agree that Klentak would not have added Arrietta or Harper without a strong push from Middleton. Instead, he lost a pick to sign the lesser Santana and traded our top two prospects of the past two years in the Segura and

[LoneStarPhan]

Hunter pitched two scoreless innings with Reading tonight. Two hits, two Ks, no walks. I hope he can make it back to the Phillies soon and pitch well. It will really help them if he can be effective in a late inning set up role.

[zambonir]

It seems to me that Middleton and Arrieta were on the same page about the timetable. Last year was meant to add a little stability and get them to .500 (close enough), this year they were supposed to make a run. Harper raised those expectations in the media from 89 wins and maybe the division to, World Series, but if they were really thinking the latter they would have gotten a pitcher. In some ways they are right where they expected to be, evaluating the team for four weeks before deciding how to deal with the trade deadline.

I think MacPhail lets Klentak do his job. The only difference here is that you have both him and Middleton where before you only had Monty. But it was pretty clear Amaro and Monty were in sync (or Amaro did what Monty wanted) which is why he kept his job for so long. I think it's the same thing here, unless we're back to Top 10 draft positions Klentak will still be the GM in 2021.

[billgtrman]

GM, agree 100% with what you said. Where teams like LA , Atlanta and St Louis (& others) seem to always to have stud young pitchers to bring up or in the system, when it happens to the Phillies it almost like WOW this is amazing they have a good live arm and more than 1 or 2 effective pitches. It's also drafting & analyzing/scouting good talent from other countries and college ball, where the Phillies seem to lack.

[allentown]

I thought at the start of the off-season that simply reaching the playoffs would be a success for the 2019 Phillies. That has been my consistent goal and I would be content if they nab the 2nd wild card spot. I think where I differ from many is that reaching the 2nd wild card justifies trading away top minor league talent at the trade deadline.

[Lawman]

I think where I differ from many is that reaching the 2nd wild card justifies trading away top minor league talent at the trade deadline.

To clarify. You feel that reaching the playoffs as a WC team justifies trading away top minor league talent?

[allentown]

Sorry for the confusion. I don't want us to trade significant prospects for a shot at sneaking into playoffs as a wildcard. That harms the future too much. We have already traded Sixto and Crawford, but the aim in doing so was to field a stronger team than that, one with a realistic chance to advance in the playoffs. I don't see that possibility at this point. Maybe after the last two wins the Phillies turn things around...?