2019 Phillies Season Discussion

[zambonir]

This team - with McCutchen, Herrera, Franco and Hernandez - is not supposed to be worse than the theoretical team you mention, and is probably still better (even with what's happened to Herrera and Franco). It, too, had a deep bench on paper (Kingery, now that we know he's good, Quinn, who people wanted to start, Williams, who was a starter last year). 1 injury and two failed starters and suddenly you don't have a deep bench.

Haseley and Bohm are not Rollins, Utley, Howard (and that's only two guys). Neither of them may even be ready next year (or they could have a Kingery-like season). And you still can't pencil Quinn into any line-up.

This swoon won't last forever though. Segura and Hernandez are not this bad. Harper will deliver, however streakily. But they do need more. And the HR thing really doesn't make sense.

[Austinfan]

The 2004-2006 Phillies were working players into the lineup, and those players weren't stars until they were stars, Howard/Hoskins both 5th rd picks, Kingery/Rollins 2nd rd, Utley/Bohm 1st rd and so on.

2004: Lieberthal, Thome, Polanco, Rollins, Bell, Burrell, Byrd, Abreu
2005: Lieberthal, Howard, Utley, Rollins, Bell, Burrell, Lofton, Abreu
2006: Lieberthal, Howard, Utley, Rollins, Bell, Burrell, Rowand, Abreu
2007: Ruiz, Howard, Utley, Rollins, Nunez/Helms, Burrell, Rowand, Victorino
2008: Ruiz, Howard, Utley, Rollins, Feliz, Burrell, Victorino, Werth

We have Harper, Hoskins, Kingery right now as core players.
We need to develop two to three more.

[zambonir]

Yeah but that makes 2020 2005, if you're relying on Bohm and Halseley. And it's not even certain they'll be ready/productive in 2020. They did not sign Harper (let alone trade for Realmuto and sign McCutchen) to be 2-3 years away.

It is a thing that could happen, especially with Herrera and Franco no longer looking like they can bridge the gap, but it would likely mean 2019-2021 was a failed era, by which time Hoskins won't be around much longer and Harper won't be young. If so Sixers/Flyers history could easily repeat for Klentak.

[LoneStarPhan]

Phillies are starting the final 16 games up to the All Star Break tonight. This is a huge string of games for the team. With 7 games against the Mets and 6 against the Marlins, they should be able to win several more than they lose. It is important to win these series with NL East teams.

We have already completed 6 games in this stretch of NL East games with a 1-5 record. If they play like this through the next 16 games vs. NL East opponents, the season may be lost beyond salvation. For me, anything less than 8-8 is unacceptable and really I think 10-6 or better is needed to feel good about the season after the all star game.

[Florida_Sunshine]

Kingery, now that we know he's good

Uh oh, now you did it. I kept wanting to point out that we now need to start realizing that AT's evaluation of Kingery from 2 years ago is finally coming true. Kingery is a stud, needs to count as a good draft pick and a player we developed.

I just didn't want to put the jinx on him.

[bkeich]

Unfortunately Kingery’s .414 BABIP is not sustainable, so unless he learns to walk more I can’t really see him as “core”. He could be a quality player because of his speed and defensive flexibility, but he isn’t yet a sure thing. It wasn’t that long ago that he was one of the worst players in a ML uniform, I suspect both are not true, I just hope he is closer to what we are seeing now, but he isn’t going to hit .330 normally as is.

Maybe knock .030 off his numbers and that is his Hugh end of normal, still pretty good if that’s what he is

[zambonir]

Well, he's not necessarily immune to ups and downs. But he is currently a great bench player who has not suffered from additional playing time, and would be getting it no matter what (if we had a great 3B and CF we'd see him in the middle IF right now I imagine).

I have always counted him as a success, since development and drafting process is essentially over once he was signed and called up. If he had been botched that would be on the major league operation.

He's not gonna be this and he may not be Utley but he should be a quality 2B for a long time. To me "core' is any member of a starting 8 who is worth giving 550 PAs.

[julio]

He's not gonna be this and he may not be Utley but he should be a quality 2B for a long time.

It's important that we not expect Kingery (or anybody) to be what Chase Utley was. All that gets us is disappointment when he doesn't quite measure up. Those of us who have been around long enough ought to remember how nobody ever did (or ever will) quite measure up to Mike Schmidt. When you've enjoyed the career of a player of that caliber, you don't replace him with an equivalent younger player. Doesn't work that way.

[andyb]

The way Kingery has developed is interesting. I threw up a half hearted Javy Baez comparison in one of the game threads. It is not completely ridiculous though. He is not quite the defensive player Baez is but probably has more raw speed. 20 HR power and 20 SB speed coupled with loud contact (i.e. exit velocity) and you can have a pretty good player. He may never have a good walk rate, but that might be OK if he continues to make good contact and does not expand the zone too much.

Juan Samuel is another comparison. Kingery is not as fast, but better defensively.

The trick is to use Kingery in a way that maximizes his skill. I am more interested in seeing him at leadoff now just because of the lethargy the teams seems to be in. Segura and Harper fit better in the 2 and 3 slots. Moving them around has not really helped them. Let's try Kingery up top and see what happens (or Quinn if he starts to hit).

[Philsmania]

He's not gonna be this and he may not be Utley but he should be a quality 2B for a long time.

It's important that we not expect Kingery (or anybody) to be what Chase Utley was. All that gets us is disappointment when he doesn't quite measure up.

See also how many thought/expected Crawford would be the new Rollins.

[Austinfan]

Watching Kingery, his success is no fluke.
He's starting to work counts more, as he gets more confidence in his ability to hit with 2 strikes.
He's got a great stroke, really quick bat that generates power.
Biggest flaw is probably his recognition of breaking balls, but he's not Hernandez bad and has upside there.
The BABIP is unsustainable, but with his speed and exit velo, he should be north of .350.

(I thought Hernandez had turned the corner before he hurt his foot last year, and that his start this year confirmed it, but like Franco, is regressing to his career norms or worse).

[allentown]

See also how many thought/expected Crawford would be the new Rollins.

And in 99 PA, Crawford now has a .354 OBP and .756 OPS for Seattle. Hasn't demonstrated base-stealing ability. He has +0.5 WAR -- not bad for 100 AB.

[zambonir]

I think part of it is not just living up to players like Schmidt, Utley or Rollins, but also having expectations of how the pieces of an offense fit together. The '08 and '09 team's three big offensive stars were all infielders, and the two middle IFs in particular meant the 3B didn't have to be as big a bat. So long as Cutch, Harper, and Hoskins are meeting expectations our 2B doesn't have to be an All-Star bat, especially with big bats at C and SS too. Crawford would have still been fine if Franco and Herrera were productive (of course right now Segura has disappeared but he'll be back).

[BostonRoss]

I admit to being a little worried about Harper. He has the worst bWAR of any starter on the team (even Bruce's two weeks). Actually, I'm not sure who the starting 3B is, but he's barely ahead of Miller, who's played four games. (Harper is well ahead of Franco.)

It is true that Harper had a bad first half last year. Through 75 games last year he was hitting only .219, but his OPS was .836, well ahead of where it is this year. He only hit two homers in June 2018 (same as this year so far), but he had hit 18 going into June, compared to 10 this year.

Harper did recover nicely in the second half of 2018, but his BABIP in the first half was only .226, almost 100 points below his career average. It was .378 in the second half, which of course is not likely to be repeated. Furthermore, his BABIP this year is 320, right at his career average. So if his first half in 2018 was a bit unlucky, that doesn't seem to be the case this year.

It's still early, and Harper is young; so I expect at least some recovery. But how much?

[NCPhilsphan]

The problem is much more than just the roster as now constructed. You see teams like the Braves, Nats, Dodgers, Astros, and Cubs with so many super talented you g players and just as many talented young guys in the upper minors. The Phillies don’t gave that even after so many losing seasons. The Phillies are not even close to those teams in terms of talent evaluation. Yes Kingery and Hoskins are nice players but look at what guys Like Acuna, Soto, etc are doing. Even the Mets seem to have found a diamond in Alonso. They need better scouting and development of players. At this point you have to wonder who the real Nola is. The sad part is the Phillies have spent so much money for this mess.

[zambonir]

News of Former Phillies 2019

Discussion above about Williams, Haseley, Quinn, etc.

I don't think Williams or Haseley is the next guy up in this OF so long as Quinn is back. For either to return you'd have to DFA Rodriguez or Miller - or Franco. Not that any of them are great losses. But it seems like what they need now is either a RH-hitting OF to pair with Bruce (and to have off the bench instead of Franco) or a more proven CF option.

It actually would be nice to see what NIck could do with 10 starts in a row but would you really bench Bruce for him? And if he went 0-12 in his first three games, what then? They just don't work as a LF platoon and neither of them can play anywhere else.

[DurhamBull]

I'm curious what the Phils are thinking about Franco. Since they appear to be willing to start just about anyone at 3B instead of him, and he lacks the versatility for a bench role (3B/1B only, doesn't run well), I have to think his days on the team are numbered because the Phils need the roster spot. I wonder if the Phils aren't trying to arrange a change-of-scenery trade.

[zambonir]

I think it all comes back to the question of whether or not they can wait another 2-3 weeks to make moves, including where the overall trade market is going to be between now and the All-Star Break. Franco doesn't get you much on his own so he's probably here until a bigger deal can be consummated, unless you just move him for someone else's problem. But having him on the roster now that Quinn is back really doesn't add much and they can certainly use all the help they can get right now.

[LoneStarPhan]

Phillies match Orioles as only two MLB teams with 1-9 record over their last ten games.

Time to turn things around.

[Lawman]

I was thinking yesterday that I don't really know what moves the Phillies should make leading up to the deadline. I think that the NL East is out of the question. So, that leaves Wild Card as their only realistic path to the post season. There are too many holes on this team to fill for them to be shoring up the team to make a WC run.

They don't hit well for average or power. They don't pitch well. The upper echelon talent just isn't there. I'd argue they should trade Realmuto - upper echelon FA catcher may be attractive to a contending team - and see what he brings you back.