2019 Phillies Season Discussion

[kmc1019]

Phillies wake up in 2nd place today for the 1st time in a while. Hope they can go into the Atlanta series with a fire in their bellies and that some frigid hitters like Hernandez and Franco and Harper ( at least as far as power goes ) can turn things around.

[Patchmk88]

I’ll be at the games this weekend. Hopefully I’m a good luck charm!

[tom81]

Everyone else is mid-to-back end of the rotation quality. Right now, the Phillies have no ace on the staff.

Eflin has the 5th lowest ERA among starting pitchers in the NL. Some people would consider this a qualification as a front of the rotation starter. I think he is in that conversation of being more than a mid-to-back end starter.

[Austinfan]

Eflin is a work in progress, so is Pivetta but further behind in his development.
Eflin is an average changeup from being a top starting pitcher (especially against LH hitters).

Pivetta needs to improve his consistency with his slider and curve, b/c his four seamer is too straight and needs offspeed pitches to set it up. To make the jump to the next level, he needs a two seamer or changeup.

Both have top of the rotation stuff, I think Eflin will get there, Pivetta I'm not so sure.
Velasquez belongs in the pen, and I think it fits him better.
I'd like to see De Los Santos get a real shot at the #5 job, not one spot start then sent down.
Medina is probably a year away.

[bkeich]

Eflin has the 5th lowest ERA among starting pitchers in the NL. Some people would consider this a qualification as a front of the rotation starter. I think he is in that conversation of being more than a mid-to-back end starter.

He is off to a good start this year, no doubt about that, but he very clearly needs to do it longer than this to really convince anyone that he is even an above average starter. 13 Starts is a good partial season, but many pitchers get hot streaks that long, his just happened to hit the start of the season.

His peripheral numbers are good, maybe even pretty good, but he is not striking people out as much as last year (7.4K / 9, which is solid) and his walks are down (2.1 BB/9) to a very good number. As a result, while he has a 2.84 ERA, he has a 4.11 FIP, implying he has also had some good luck which is not repeatable. His career ERA is 4.54 and FIP of 4.63, so one might expect a little regression just based on that large difference this year and that some of it has been luck.

[Lawman]

Perhaps, and I hope you're right and I'm wrong.

[zambonir]

In the 2019 game playoff pitching is so different. The Brewers didn't even have a starting rotation, such as it is, last post-season. The Astros won the World Series with some tandems and the Dodgers weren't letting their guys go three times through the order. If Nola improves and the bullpen isn't still in tatters you might get by with him and Eflin at the top of the rotation; the question then is whether Arrieta or Pivetta is actually the best #3, and which guy only makes a start when a 4th starter is needed?

But that's a lot of questions, so would be much easier to plug in a surefire #2 or 3 in that scenario.

Also, you gotta win the division (and hopefully be one of the two best teams) to really start dreaming on your best-of-7 rotation scenarios, and in that sense the Phillies probably need help. They are still one injury or regression away from being in trouble, especially if Nola never dominates and Arrieta remains what he is.

Last year we'd already be inking in the Nola game as win, so the diminished odds on Sunday wouldn't loom as large.

[gmwannabe]

i hope you are too, patch. but,I think these next 20-30 games (all within the division) will leave the phils in the middle of the pack. atlanta just too good and young (as of now and in the next 5 years. i don't see how your team can win if your 4 hole hitter is not hitting homers. kind of glad that the phils did not jump the gun on hoskins as they did in kingery with a somewhat large contract. nice kid, but has he been figured out. very happy with the way eflin and pivetta are throwing, they need one more good starter for the future. medina...maybe. howard, i am starting to have doubts. if he is out this long, i think it is past the precautionary stage with the shoulder. who else?
gm

[zambonir]

I am not a huge Hoskins believer if he's not consistently OPSing over .900, but he is (on average). I think he'll go on a tear again. The lack of HRs over the past month is perplexing but he's still producing. He suffered from Harper's cold streak too I think.

Losing Cutch and not really having a CF (especially with no 3B either) is also no small thing. Bruce is a nice patch but still just a patch.

[Austinfan]

When people were talking about signing Harper, the argument was he could get them to 90 wins and a possible playoff berth.

Since we signed hm, we've lost Cutch, Nola and Arrieta are struggling, more than half the bullpen is on IR, and we're still on a 90 win pace.

Count your blessings.

[zambonir]

For sure, this is a good team (and GM is a deliberate, usually tongue-in-cheek Cassandra). But things have caught up to them a little bit; we'll see what the rest of June brings. With some relievers coming back and maybe even a little bit of Quinn they could get a boost. And we'll likely know Herrera's fate and the trade market will begin before we know it.

[bkox]

Braves win again today. Meaning the Phils need to sweep the series in order to come out of it with the lead in the NL East.

[Patchmk88]

Phillies Acquire Brad Miller

Looks like we got Miller. Does he go to LHV or replace one of Gosselin or Rodriguez?

[bkox]

Breen says he will join the Phillies:

Matt Breen (matt_breen)

[bkeich]

Someone we needed if Kingery is going to be our CF. Miller is an upgrade over both Gosselin and Rodriguez and lessens the need for Williams as a LHB.

Something tells me we might end up releasing him if we get Herrera back (marginal chance) or acquire a CF.

[zambonir]

Would not surprise me if this is at Nick Williams' expense for now, though if Quinn is coming too he and Gosselin both have to go (and they need Gosselin's 40-man spot for Miller).

3B seems to be his least frequent position though, and not supposedly much of a defender. Don't see it as a noticeable upgrade but can't hurt for a month.

[bkeich]

I actually wonder if we might not see a surprise Franco optioning soon. He is not hitting and only plays 2 positions. He might lose his spot to a Gosselin or Rodriguez

[zambonir]

Hadn't thought about the fact that he could be optioned. As with Dom Brown and Cody Asche, would feel like a career-ender though. Would obviously be nice if he could find his way back to producing in a part-time role and at least have throw-in trade deadline value (not sure he'd have off-season value as things currently stand, more like a non-tender).

But, Kingery is probably our 3B for the rest of the year, and next year. The question is, who's our CF?

[Lawman]

Some combination for 3B/CF of Kingery/Quinn/Miller I would think.

[allentown]

He broke into MLB in 2013 and has a baseball reference positive WAR in each season, with positive dWAR the past two seasons, primarily at 2B -- that makes him an interesting guy to get for $ only, especially since he won't turn 30 until after the season ends. His contract is $1 million/1 year.