2019 Phillies Season Discussion

[allentown]

With Kimbrel it's still apparently the years, but even on a one-year deal they both probably want $18 million and at least an option/buy-out. Even on a one-year deal that would leave the Phillies with little financial flexibility.

I doubt either of them is going to get $18 million for half a season's work. As long as the Phillies stay below the lux tax so that it doesn't build to a higher percentage next year, I'm not worried about losing financial flexibility that late in the season. One move, with no loss of prospects or draft picks is very attractive. I'd be willing to include an option/buy-out for 2020.

[zambonir]

It will be 2/3 of a season.

I dunno. If you want $18 million and no one will sign you until June 4 why not take $12 million on April 4?

If the compensation is really the issue there will be a bidding war once it is gone. At that point Keuchel might ask for another guaranteed year, or a $25 million deal (that still only pays him $18). Granted he does not seem to have much leverage, but his ask has got to be high or the Astros might have signed him already, they wouldn't have to give up a pick.

[andyb]

We are about $17.8 million under the competitive balance threshold. I could see using much of that up to sign one of those two players. I just think 10 teams will want Kimbrel and Kimbrel will still want to get a 3-year deal. 3/50 might look good to the Braves since they have saved so much money on their young players of late.

With Keuchel I think he really wants a 1-year make-good deal with a contender. 1/15 for the rest of the year (and remember he'll need 3-4 weeks to get ready while Kimbrel could be ready to pitch an inning in 10 days). That is almost a $30 million pro-rated deal for Keuchel counting the time he would be on the roster. Doubt he could get much more than that.

Remember also that we can exceed the luxury tax line. We don't want to, but there is no law against it and they could get under the next year if they wanted to reset their rate. You do the one most important move staying under the line. If you need to add salary after that then you have a decision to make.

[allentown]

True, but next year seems the more critical year for lux tax than this year. I think it important to stay under for 2019 to retain flexibility for 2020.

[Austinfan]

I'd like to see some of the AAA starters before I give up big assets for aging vets, sometimes you get two good months, sometimes you have pumpkin soup.

For one thing, if Irvin keeps rolling though AAA for a second year, at some point you have to find out if it's a mirage or if he's the one in a hundred who can pitch effectively with a marginal FB. And De Los Santos needs a chance to start if he goes back and keeps pitching well, RP stints are not a good judge for a minor league pitcher who's been used strictly as a SP.

[andyb]

We lose 3 major reliever salaries next year (Neshek, Hunter, Nicasio) and only have a couple significant arbitration raises in Franco and Realmuto. Now this does not mean that we won't want to add something next year like a left-handed starter or replace one of the bullpen arms, but there does seem to be a path to getting under the luxury tax line next year if we exceed it trying to win this year.

We'd also have options like moving on from Cesar Hernandez.

All this is to say they should still try to stay under the line this year, but it is not the end of the world if they added Keuchel and then went over doing another short term move at the trade deadline.

[bkeich]

The Phils are currently 7th in the NL in ERA and 7th in the NL in runs scored. (10th in the less important fielding percentage)

As an average NL team statistically they are probably a little lucky to have the record they have (3rd best winning percentage). They are 5th in Run Differential. We do have a slight advantage at the moment so far that we have played 16 home games versus 12 on the road.

They probably do need to do something to improve the team a little. A reliever would help as we cannot count on Neshak or especially Tommy Hunter to stay active (particularly Hunter, who is basically a non-participant). We could use some bench help obviously with Quinn being an injury waiting to happen.

Obvious way to improve the team is to add a veteran pitcher, either Kimbrel or Keuchel, no reason to make a trade when these guys are basically free (loss of a draft pick), not sure we should really wait for the draft as A) someone else might not, B) we will then be in a bidding war. The loss of the draft capital is something, but if they wan to they can make it up in the International Market if they chose to.

As far as a position player, I cant really see replacing Franco as long as he has an .950+OPS. Will it last, probably not, but until he slows down a little cruel to bench him. Hernandez has a .740 OPS or so, not bad for a 2B, but probably our weakest link with his sudden return to being a poor fielder. Kingery might be out for awhile, if so I dont really think of him as a replacement, besides he was among the worst players in baseball last year, he needs to do more than just a few good games to prove he is ready to take over 2B.

If you were to get a starting pitcher, who sits? Nola has been our only poor starter so far other than Pivetta, we have 4 guys that have done well (Eickhoff is still a SSS, but successful so far).

Honestly, I would look a the bullpen and bench first, that is the place we have obvious holes (basically every position on the bench, not counting Kingery, who is hurt) and a team can always add a reliever, the 7th/8th guy is always able to be replaced.

[andyb]

The loss of the draft capital is something, but if they wan to they can make it up in the International Market if they chose to.

They lose $500K in international allocations too with a pre-draft signing. Not sure that can be made up, and all the teams that were in the international 2-year penalty are now out of it, so allocations will be much more costly to trade for. This was part of the reason I wanted us to max out on the allocations the past 2 years - the allocations were dirt cheap with so many teams in the penalty (I think it was 11 2 years ago and 7 last year, and remember these teams were among the largest historic international spenders).

Agree that bullpen is the priority, especially if Kingery comes back. We have a pretty set lineup so absent injury bench is probably less important. We should also take a breath and realize our bullpen, while not good, is at least the best in the NL east so far. Hard to believe, but actually true.

[zambonir]

Well, they are now talking about putting Pivetta in the pen and we have so much else available in AAA too. If Arano ends up being a 60-day candidate or Hunter can't be expected back by July, different story. But the trade market will always have closers and late-inning guys available. And whatever his contract demands supposedly Kimbrel also wants to close. This team isn't actually looking for an everyday closer, and the W-L says they don't need one.

By late July they could also have other opportunities to move money around. While it's unlikely for any number of reasons, right now both Cesar and Herrera are looking tradeable (though making Cutch the permanent CF is probably not ideal). But if they trade for a big-salary arm they can also try to fold Nicasio or maybe even Hunter into the deal if it helps make the $ work.

[schooldoc]

David Robertson is kind of a forgotten man in this conversation. Not much has been said about his timetable to return, but if he can come back in the next 2-3 weeks and show himself to be healthy and effective, that should eliminate the need for a guy like Kimbrel.

[Austinfan]

They have a posse of RPs at Lehigh and Reading, so unless you're picking up someone clearly better than our top 3 or 4, it's wasted assets.

Rios, E Garcia, Davis, Gilbert, Dohy, Leftwich, Hammer, Hernandez, and of course SPs like Anderson.
Safety in numbers.
We've seen young RPs come up and add solid depth, as recently as last season.

[zambonir]

There were countless people (here and elsewhere) who thought the Phillies still needed to sign Kimbrel after they signed Robertson ('cause he's a closer and more proven than Neris or Seranthony - which also equals old and expensive). But if Robertson and Hunter and Arano do all end up being question marks, you never know. Plenty of time to try out some of the guys AF mentions, and Morgan's emergence is also significant.

Rosenthal's latest round-up shows how many options are out there. starters, relievers, controllable people. Including the reliever who shut us down in the 9th tonight.

Rosenthal: Would the Tigers trade Matthew Boyd?; the latest...

[andyb]

Still a small sample size, but here are the Phillies' sprint speeds with players that have at least 5 "sprints":

Statcast Sprint Speed Leaderboard

Kingery is the fastest guy on the team. Quinn is at the bottom with SSS (was he still a little hurt?). Gosselin is surprisingly quick and Cutch is still well above average. Herrera is now right at the league average, so he has improved from last year and part of it is probably gliding to balls in the OF not quite at 100% sprint.

Most of the regulars are above average with only Hoskins and Franco below (which is kind of expected also). Alfaro is slightly ahead of Realmuto in the fastest catcher competition (they were the 2 quickest last year as well).

[jsieger93]

First time poster but thought I would share this with you all. Not a great photoshopper, but I put together a computer desktop background of the Phillies 2019 schedule because I couldn't find one anywhere else. Feel free to improve on it/lead me to anyone that actually knows what they are doing to find a better background. Had to upload it to file sharing site because the full picture was too big to attach on here, but here is a smaller preview of it.

Uploadfiles.io - Download Phillies Desktop Wallpaper.jpg for free

[Squire]

Woah. Odubel gets reinstated from the IL and Aaron Altherr gets DFA’d

[julio]

Yep.

Todd Zolecki (ToddZolecki)

Next question will be who goes when Kingery is ready to be activated - whether Gosselin or Rodriguez.

[nycphils]

I’d guess Gosselin given how well Rodriguez hits lefties.

[phillychuck]

Sad to see Altherr go, but it was the right move. Hope a bad team picks him up and plays him every day. Can the orioles use a CF/OF?

I'm also surprised Odubel didn't do some rehab.

[zambonir]

I wonder if Herrera was playing in simulated games or something? Probably just need him in CF more than they need him to take a few extra days to face better pitching. Also both Reading and LV are on the road.

They seem to have settled on Rodriguez as the good clubhouse guy (based on what announcers have been saying) and he's Gabe's buddy. Plus he chose to stick around after spring training. It's not like Gosselin is likely to be claimed, he was already available to every other team in spring training too. In theory whoever it is is merely placeholding for Quinn, but....

If MLBTR is right about this Altherr will likely be traded, albeit for nothing much.

This’ll likely be the end of the line for Altherr in Philadelphia – 28-year-olds with the ability to play center field and multiple 120 wRC+ or better seasons (albeit in limited action) under their belt aren’t often designated, and he’d seem to represent a clear outfield upgrade for at least a handful of teams. The Indians, with a league-worst 69 wRC+ and a cast of scattered disappointments in the outfield, may already be hot on the trail.

Phillies Designate Aaron Altherr For Assignment

[LoneStarPhan]

I’d guess Gosselin given how well Rodriguez hits lefties.

I just saw the lineup posted for the game tonight and both Gosselin and Rodriguez are in the starting 8. Gosselin is playing left field and Rodriguez second base. McCutchen starts in center field. Herrera not in the starting lineup tonight.

Looks like they are taking a look at the question as to who goes when Kingery returns.