2019 Phillies Season Discussion

[donaldorc]

If a pitcher is a successful starter he’s not going to be converted to a reliever.

Case in point: Brett Myers. Oops.

[andyb]

Myers is certainly an interesting case. Baseball was more in love with closers then. Today nobody would take a 4 WAR starter and make them a reliever unless there were injury concerns. Now people realize that a 4.00 ERA starter who eats up close to 200 innings is more valuable than a 2.75 ERA reliever for 70 innings.

With VV the question for him has been durability (staying healthy and going deep in games) and consistency. He clearly has a starter's arsenal and the hitting and baserunning intangibles are also helpful as a starter. If he can't stay healthy as a starter that would be a legit reason to convert him to the bullpen. If they worry about his consistency though, that might be worse in a bullpen role.

It is less clear whether he tires before he gets to the 80-100 pitch range. He throws so many pitches that he is actually getting there. And I think the quick triggers late last year were a combination of unnecessary panic and having a huge bullpen in September.

[VoteForKalas]

VV is an interesting case

For a reliever, one wants a pitcher who starts strong instead of starts erratic.

I've not studied VV's profile in that context, but, if he starts fairly well and then fades as the pitch count mounts, that could be a viable reliever/long man profile. If he cannot sustain that pattern, that is a problem as it makes it harder to rely on him.

That is the other issue of transitioning from starter to reliever - one has to work through that process over time and get accustomed to potentially pitching much more frequently.

[julio]

If the Phillies slot someone as a reliever the minute they enter the organization, it means they don’t think the the player has the skill set to succeed as a starter. The only Phillie High draft pick I remember on someone intended to be a reliever was Ricky Bottalico.

Also Wayne Gomes - drafted in the first round in 1993, a relief pitcher out of Old Dominion. Amassed a total of 0.1 career WAR. Waste of a high first-round pick (#4 overall).

This is a case where the Phillies did have Gomes start for a couple of years, even though they intended him as a reliever. Let's just say it wasn't a successful strategy, at least in this case. Gomes worked in the bullpen for the Phils for several years - but would not have been there on a competitive club, IMHO.

[zambonir]

Relievers with stuff have become more valuable. I would think it is debatable whether they converted Seranthony because he wasn't going to cut it as a starter or because they knew he would really thrive as a reliever.

And you do occasionally have the young player who has to start out as a reliever but eventually goes back to starting. As is currently the case for most of the AAA rotation.

Didn't Myers only become a reliever because he was injured? Then since it kind of worked and he liked it they gave it a whirl for one year. Smoltz was the inspiration IIRC.

[andyb]

Eckersley was the inspiration for Smoltz if I recall correctly. With both of them it was about keeping them healthy. With Smoltz it was a time where comeback from TJ surgery was not a given.

Back to VV - OPS 1-3 times around the order: 719, 721, 879 - this suggests he is tiring, though I would also throw out that he probably gets close to 100 pitches the 2nd time through the order sometimes. Stats all 2018.

Pitches 1-25: 683
Pitches 26-50: 803
Pitches 51-75: 816
Pitches 75-100: 601

Mixed evidence on VV as far as the stats go. I did notice his last start that he took a few innings to get his fastball into the mid-90s, but that could easily be by design to make sure he does not max out early.

It is unclear what the best role is for VV, though I also think it is clearly still very possible that starting is his best possible role. Remember all pitchers should do a bit better in a bullpen role. Not all of them can handle the starting role though.

[bigegypt0417]

You have to imagine that at some point teams will start sniffing around about Deivy Grullon. I know he can't sustain the start he's had but he was also pretty good last year.

Seems like he could bring back some decent value...no?

[tom81]

I would think teams have inquired about him and I’m sure they don’t like the demands we have to trade him. With Realmuto not signed to a long term deal yet I can’t imagine trading Grullon at this time.

[andyb]

If Grullon's offensive development is real, I think I might want him as the backup catcher. Remember we only have Realmuto for 2 years at the moment. One year in AAA and one year as the ML backup might be enough for us to decide whether we want to spend $15-$20 million a year to extend Realmuto. BABIP is over .500 at the moment, so probably better to think of him as someone who projects to hit .250 with some power. That can play in the majors however if it is legit 20 HR power. Watching his K and BB rates will be interesting. Both are up a bit this year. If he can continue to have an 8% walk rate (rather than 5% in the past) that will go a long way towards building the case that there has been some base offensive improvement.

[bigegypt0417]

Bringing him up to start once a week would damage his value and also hurt his development. Holding on to him for two years in case may be more damaging...IMO.

[andyb]

If he is ready next year you are not really hurting his development by making him a backup. Ready theoretically means developed. Kind of why optioning Williams to AAA this year would not have been a good idea. He is already developed. He might need regular playing time to do well in the majors (which he is now getting), but sending him down to the minors would not really make him better at this point.

Let's see Grullon the rest of the year. The batting average will drop as the BABIP normalizes. His big question is whether he can learn the strike zone better (his BB and K ratios). His defense is fine as a backup. If he can hit as well as Knapp (more HRs, less BBs) then why wouldn't we want that on the big club?

[bigegypt0417]

Let's see Grullon the rest of the year. The batting average will drop as the BABIP normalizes. His big question is whether he can learn the strike zone better (his BB and K ratios). His defense is fine as a backup. If he can hit as well as Knapp (more HRs, less BBs) then why wouldn't we want that on the big club?

Because even if he's a 260 hitter and an average glove in the majors he's a regular on most teams. Why would I waste that potential value to keep him as a catcher who gets 200 AB's?

His defense is fine as a starter...I've not seen many profiles that have him as anything other than an average/above average defensive catcher.

I mean is this comp that far off?

Salvador Perez

[tom81]

If he can hit as well as Knapp (more HRs, less BBs) then why wouldn't we want that on the big club?

How is his game calling and rapport with the pitchers compared to Knapp? Eflin praised Knapp’s gameplan for last outing.

Andrew Knapp, who caught Eflin in the minor leagues, created a game plan to utilize Eflin’s ability to throw his fastball at the top of the strike zone, calling first for a fastball up and in to a right-handed batter, and then a fastball down and away on the next pitch. The location of the pitches changed by four feet. The Marlins remained off balance.

“It took me [three] years to do it again, but I felt good,” Eflin said. “I was pretty locked in and just had a pretty good connection with Knappy the whole time. [He] called a fantastic game, and really just following the game plan and executing, and kind of riding on the fastball. It was a lot of fun.”

[andyb]

I mean is this comp that far off?

It is not too bad. Perez did make the majors at age 21, so is probably better, but he is certainly the type of player that Grullon would be (including the relatively slow speed). If Grullon is 80%-90% of that he is at least a back end starter. Hard to say how much he'll progress. There is probably some ceiling to his development as he is relatively limited athletically, but if his defense is solid (I know nothing about his framing), then 20 HRs makes you a big leaguer almost no matter what your average is.

[gmwannabe]

on a little bit different subject, but still regarding Grullon, on the other site someone had proposed a trade for mike minor with Medina, grullon, nick williams and someone else to the rangers. i just don't see it. Minor was so-so for the Braves and has pitched ok for the rangers but to give up all that? i know lefties develop later but i say no. way too much. am i seeing something different here?
gm

[allentown]

I wouldn't do it. Pivetta is finally showing signs of finding himself this year, as is Nola. I don't think we need minor. I do think we need Grullon. Having traded Sixto, I certainly don't want to trade Medina, either.

[zambonir]

Oh, I think the Phillies will be acquiring a SP before July is over but whether it's Minor or Hamels or Bumgarner or someone else, it's not going to cost anything like the above.

[bigegypt0417]

I mean is this comp that far off?

It is not too bad. Perez did make the majors at age 21, so is probably better, but he is certainly the type of player that Grullon would be (including the relatively slow speed). If Grullon is 80%-90% of that he is at least a back end starter. Hard to say how much he'll progress. There is probably some ceiling to his development as he is relatively limited athletically, but if his defense is solid (I know nothing about his framing), then 20 HRs makes you a big leaguer almost no matter what your average is.

I guess the question would be does he hold more value here or as a trade chip if his performance even settles down to last years...

[andyb]

Keuchel is more interested in a 1-year deal reportedly than Kimbrel. So imagine we are in the mix for him if he is available after the draft. The whole league will be interested in Kimbrel without compensation.

[zambonir]

I have a hard time believing compensation is really the hold-up. With Kimbrel it's still apparently the years, but even on a one-year deal they both probably want $18 million and at least an option/buy-out. Even on a one-year deal that would leave the Phillies with little financial flexibility.

Giving up the draft pick would still be cheaper than giving up a couple of prospects.

But if you get Cole Hamels on July 31 that's another 8-12 weeks of salary you don't have to pay, and maybe the Cubs take back something that subtracts payroll (even just someone like Alvarez).

If they do trade for someone like Mike Minor or Bumgarner I'm sure it will include someone from the current AAA/major league pitching group too, just as Happ was in the Oswalt deal.

While any team should be able to change course based on need, the reality is every team sets a budget and generally sticks with it until late June, and then has a provisional trade deadline budget. What's happening with Keuchel and Kimbrel is basically unprecedented. So long as Eickhoff and VV continue to pitch well and Pivetta looks like an option to return there's no reason to add another pitcher on June 3. But odds are there still could be on July 30.