2019 Phillies Season Discussion (part 2)

[zambonir]

Seems like this GM and manager don't tend to disagree on stuff. I mean, with Crawford, they insisted Kingery graded out better at SS defensively (while also saying Crawford graded out well at 3B). That starts with the front office not the manager (and obviously they were both aligned on Kingery too). I don't think they really buried Crawford though. He was going to play every day, albeit at 3B, before the second injury.

With Williams I'd say Kapler is being pretty obvious. His comments are veiled shots at Williams work ethic. Not only did he pout about his role (and let's not forget his joke about the computer last year) but perhaps the Phillies feel he didn't do enough to try and succeed at it (even though it's the hardest role in baseball).

In that article Williams did pretty much say he neither expected nor cared to be called back up in September though that's clearly more about the circumstances with his family than the baseball stuff.

[EDmuch]

I agree that Hoskins is a major part of the problems with the offense. It is now questionable as to whether he will reach 30 home runs or 90 RBI's. Seems teams have his number. Throw a first strike over the plate and he will usually take it. Then give him one pitch to play with. After he has 2 strikes throw him nothing but breaking balls low and away which he will chase and miss at least 80% of the time. Somebody, maybe Charlie, needs to work with him very intensely during the off-season.

[andyb]

Not only did he pout about his role (and let's not forget his joke about the computer last year) but perhaps the Phillies feel he didn't do enough to try and succeed at it (even though it's the hardest role in baseball).

That is a bit unfair as the Phillies got him virtually no starts in his early season time. Any young bench player should get a start every week or two. You had Herrera struggling and an older McCutchen could easily sit once every could of weeks. Hoskins could use a day off every now and then also with some OF playing 1B. Williams did not get a start until the 26th game of the year. That is managerial malpractice. It was probably Klentak's fault that Williams was not traded after Harper was signed, but if you are going to commit to having a young position player on your roster then you need to play him a bit.

He did not play well as the season went on, but then did play well in AAA. Players who played less well in AAA got playing time. I am sure the Phillies thought all those things in your post, but they themselves helped create the situation. Then burying a decent hitter in September seems like them trying to rationalize their mistakes rather than assessing how best to win games.

[zambonir]

I don't disagree with your general analysis, though they had their reasons for not starting him (didn't want him in the field, needed to evaluate Altherr before losing him completely, didn't want Cutch playing CF though eventually they had to do that). It was just folly to think he could be a good bench player without getting any starts but the knew their two corner OFs weren't going to get many days off (just like Hoskins and Realmuto don't).

But Nick Williams and "how best to win games" don't belong in the same sentence. At most the marginal advantage of giving him a PH over anyone else (with or without platoon advantage) is slim to none, and a couple of 0-5 starts from him while playing poor defense isn't going to help anything either.

I'd be more inclined to argue that since the games are meaningless they should give him a couple of starts, but technically they still aren't meaningless (both to us and to our opponents).

We're talking about a guy who had the second-worst WAR on the 2018 team. The worst was Kingery, so yeah, it's too bad Williams wasn't given a chance somewhere else to see if he could find his bat again though obviously if they trusted Williams to play CF he had an opportunity.

Several of the Klentak's biggest mistakes this year resulted from being indecisive/hedging his bets about RF and 3B while the Machado/Harper market played out, even as he was decisive about LF and SS and C.

[allentown]

Williams is the guy the prior GM traded for.

[Austinfan]

Williams and Franco got good shots at winning a job, instead of building on early success, they both regressed.
At some point you run out of patience, we don't know if they've tried to coach them up and met resistance, or if they just aren't talented enough once figured out.

Williams is a negative fielding LF, that's a huge knock, because it means even guys like Listi can gun for your job.
That is, you'd better tear it up as a hitter, because otherwise it's easy to find good hit/no field LFs.

[zambonir]

I don't think Klentak actively wanted to get rid of all of Amaro and Gillick's players. Technically Kingery was one of those too, and Hoskins, Herrera, Hernandez and Franco were still 50% of the line-up this season, while Eflin, Pivetta and Eickhoff were 50% of our first six starting pitchers (and I wouldn't say Vinny, the only thing left from Klentak's first big trade, gets any special treatment. Nor Haseley).

Williams obviously has some skills, but the Phillies' approach to him never made any sense: "this guy is not the kind of player we like. We made two huge moves to fill the only two spots he can play. He's neither defensively good nor versatile. Let's put him on our four-man bench." They kept him around for depth but aggressively sought out a different option every time the depth was actually needed.

[Philsmania]

Williams and Franco got good shots at winning a job, instead of building on early success, they both regressed.
At some point you run out of patience, we don't know if they've tried to coach them up and met resistance, or if they just aren't talented enough once figured out.

Williams is a negative fielding LF, that's a huge knock, because it means even guys like Listi can gun for your job.
That is, you'd better tear it up as a hitter, because otherwise it's easy to find good hit/no field LFs.

Same was the case with Domonic Brown. One can criticize the Phillies' treatment of the guy all they want but, ultimately, the player has to rise to the occasion. And, Brown didn't do that here or elsewhere, notwithstanding his good season in the Mexican League this year for whatever that is worth. Neither Franco or Williams has risen to the occasion here, Yes, there is the chance one or both of them can be one of those Adrian Beltre-Jose Bautista-Josh Hamilton (for a time)-Marlon Byrd-Chris Davis (for a time)-Brandon Moss types who just take a long time, many ML at-bats and multiple organizations before things finally click and the player becomes the star people always thought he would be (of the two, I think Franco has the greater possibility of being one of those). But, there's probably at least and equal probability that they won't be one of those guys and that what we see is basically what you get.

[EDmuch]

I don't think it really matters what Klentak intended to do. What counts is the result which has been impressively mediocre since he took over. He just seems to be a computer geek rather than a person who actually has a feel for the game of baseball. HIs decision this past off season to go all in on FIP rather than to more carefully access the likelihood that all 3 of his your pitchers would suddenly blossom together over the same off season just show. a lack of common sense and the worship rather than the use of statistics. Few of the moves he has made have worked out (other than the trade for Realmuto). Kapler seems to be just an on-field extension of Klentak's inability to use statistics constructively.

I have grave doubts about what moves he will make in the off-season. I thin it is almost certain they will offer Hamels a reasonable 2-3 year deal to come home and finish his career. Hamels is like Arrieta, at best a No. 3 or 4 pitcher at this point in his career. I will be shocked if between himself and McFail (deliberate misspelling) they will see the need to also add a high end pitcher who can function as a No. 2 behind Nola.

[Philsmania]

I don't think it really matters what Klentak intended to do. What counts is the result which has been impressively mediocre since he took over. He just seems to be a computer geek rather than a person who actually has a feel for the game of baseball. HIs decision this past off season to go all in on FIP rather than to more carefully access the likelihood that all 3 of his your pitchers would suddenly blossom together over the same off season just show. a lack of common sense and the worship rather than the use of statistics. Few of the moves he has made have worked out (other than the trade for Realmuto). Kapler seems to be just an on-field extension of Klentak's inability to use statistics constructively.

I have grave doubts about what moves he will make in the off-season. I thin it is almost certain they will offer Hamels a reasonable 2-3 year deal to come home and finish his career. Hamels is like Arrieta, at best a No. 3 or 4 pitcher at this point in his career. I will be shocked if between himself and McFail (deliberate misspelling) they will see the need to also add a high end pitcher who can function as a No. 2 behind Nola.

I am beginning to think that Klentak may be a demonstration that even in the supposedly more learned age of analytics, the Peter Principle still applies and people still rise to their level of incompetence. Klentak--much like Ed Wade and RAJ in an earlier era--was quite capable as an assistant GM but may be lacking as a frontline GM.

[andyb]

The Williams situation is a little different than someone like Dominic Brown because Williams was really not given a long chance. He was pretty good offensively in 2017 and slipped back a bit to adequate last year. This year would have been the year for him to show real development, but then what the Phillies did to him this year actively hurt his development. You don't put a young player on a short bench in the majors AND never play him. You either trade him (which is probably what the Phillies should have done) or send him to the minors to play every day.

The issue is not whether Williams is great. We actually have no idea if he would have improved this year if used properly. The issue is not that the Phillies should not have gone out and gotten McCutchen and Harper. The issue is that the Phillies mishandled the talent they had in Williams to point where he has very little trade value. Even last night they had a couple of RH pinch hitters in the last inning against a right-handed relief pitcher. This lack of playing time is almost spiteful. There is a personal issue going on here and it started with the Phillies mismanagement of a young player. I am sure there are two sides to it, but it is kind of hard to argue that the Phillies have been a positive here. Signing Harper meant there was no place for Williams and Klentak and the team failed to act.

[Philsmania]

There is a personal issue going on here and it started with the Phillies mismanagement of a young player. I am sure there are two sides to it, but it is kind of hard to argue that the Phillies have been a positive here.

You may be right as well. There also seemed to be something personal with Crawford as well. In fact, there is a disturbing tendency of this regime to put players of color on a short leash, Hernandez and, to a lesser extent, Neris and Herrera excluded. It's entirely possible that we may see a an all-white starting eight in within the next five years. Realmuto at C, Hoskins at 1B, Kingery at 2B, Stott at SS, Bohm at 3B, Haseley in LF, Moniak in CF and Harper in RF. That would NOT be putting on a good face here in the 21st Century

[andyb]

I doubt that lineup will actually happen of course. There is always lots of unanticipated turnover. And of course, give it a couple of years and hopefully Kendall Simmons and Johan Rojas and Luis Garcia will all be knocking on the major league door.

[zambonir]

I agree it's personal with Williams. I really don't think it was with Crawford. He played poorly and then got hurt. They were basically happy with him when he did play later in the year. And they originally traded Galvis to hand him the job. He lost opportunities to Kingery, but also to Franco, and then they all lost opportunities to Asdrubal Cabrera.

The 2017 Phillies starting eight was 75% non-white. The issue with that projected future roster is less culture than (potentially) poor signings/draft picks, there are certainly international players we imagined would be be in the mix (and Randolph should have been).

[flyers19rw]

Agreed that some of the moves that Klentak has made have not worked out as expected. However getting JT was a big success. Also, IMO, so was adding Segura. Crawford’s stats looked good for a while but he has regressed to his past rate of performance. I can’t fault his adding Bruce and Dickerson to fill in the void created by McCutcheon’s injury.
The pitching issues aren’t totally his problem. Some are injury related. Others are poor usage-such as getting Eflin to over use a four seamer up in the zone. I’ll hold back on Klentak to see how he resolves the pitching problem this off season. If he flubs that one, then I’d support his being moved out.

[bkeich]

I’ll hold back on Klentak to see how he resolves the pitching problem this off season. If he flubs that one, then I’d support his being moved out.

Honestly, I feel that way about Klentak and Kapler. Both have shown signs of being pretty good at their jobs, both have done some good things, but the success isnt coming and we are deep into a rebuild where things should be better than this by now. I want both to succeed, I think they are probably doing generally a good job, but both are in big, big trouble if we are still a .500 team half way through next season. They will both enter next year on the hottest seats in baseball with almost no room for error.

[andyb]

However getting JT was a big success.

We actually don't know that yet. Getting Realmuto was for the purpose of contending and making the playoffs for 2 years. We are 0-1 so far. Realmuto might accumulate more WAR than Alfaro (even comparing 2 years to 5 years), but Sixto would be our best pitching prospect Howard included and would be likely to be in the rotation at some point in 2020. High end pitching prospects are hard to find and Sixto is closer to the level of prospect that Hamels was (and certainly Nola was) compared to other young pitchers like Velasquez and Pivetta and Eflin who were several notches below as prospects.

Klentak's problems are often not the players he acquires, it is what he gives up to get them (whether it is prospects or money or players he has devalued (like Santana or Crawford or Williams).

[zambonir]

I think Williams and Crawford were pretty well devalued before they ever got to MLB. They were both hot prospects in AA who stalled in - and had to repeat - AAA. I don't think Crawford was worth any less last off-season than he was the previous year. The time to trade Williams was probably after 2017 but instead they made him the starting RF (another casualty of the Hoskins to LF move, given Williams isn't great defensively either). If another team had really wanted to give up something of value to install Nick Williams as a starting OF this season I don't think the Phillies would have hung onto him, with or without the Harper waiting game.

Even with the Santana aspect of the deal I think they got very good value for JP (it's not like Seattle turned around and got anything for Santana that wasn't just about $).

[andyb]

Seattle got cash relief in the Crawford deal. They took on $40 million for Santana and gave us closer to $70 million in Segura and Nicasio. Then the Santana deal got them Encarnacion plus a competive balance draft pick. Then they got a minor prospect from the Yankees for trading most of Encarnacion's contract.

Sum of the deals got Seattle a couple of C-level prospects, a draft pick and somewhere in the $45 to $50 million dollar range. That is substantial and they are a team where that money might mean the difference between profit and loss.

There is just no way to spin the Crawford deal as fair value. It matters how well Santana played and that we did not value him correctly. Signing Santana in the first place without other corresponding moves was of course the original sin here, but Klentak was correct in his evaluation of Santana as a player. He just made the whole set of moves a disaster by playing Hoskins out of position and then trading Santana for almost nothing.

Every individual move can be justified. The sum of all the moves was a disaster. That is totally on the GM.

[nycphils]

I think Haseley looks like a very good 4th OF, which probably makes apologists angry for me to say that, but that is not really a bad thing. Maybe he develops significant power, but if not he’s still got lots of value as a guy who can (a) play every OF position at least competently or better, (b) doesn’t strike out a lot so should be a solid PH and (c) if he plays every day because of injury or rest isn’t going to create a black hole in the lineup. That’s not ideal from an upside perspective, but it is good value out of the #8 pick in the scheme of things.