2019 Phillies Season Discussion (part 2)

[zambonir]

Of course we played the O's all the time before the Expos moved, no? I feel like we used to play the Yankees more too.

Change is probably coming. Realignment, maybe even crossover playoff spots (which isn't necessarily more fair of course). But at the end of the day I doubt schedule strength (other than within your own division) really tilts the wild card race, while winning in your own division usually gets you the division (we certainly know that this year).

[BostonRoss]

Yes, I remember that our "natural rivals" used to be the Orioles. I guess they are unnatural now.

Maybe I'll check sometime, but I know there have been cases where the wild card was determined by a game (or even required a play-in to gain the wild card). I would think that in some of those cases, having different schedules could have made a one game difference. Possibly it could also make a difference in a division race, though that's less likely.

[zambonir]

Well, no doubt you could make the case, but there are just so many variables. For instance in theory the Phillies should have a one or two game edge over any Central teams in the wild card race just from playing the Marlins so much.

[BostonRoss]

Exactly my point. The playing field isn’t level.

[andyb]

Exactly my point. The playing field isn’t level.

Though other than the rivalry games it is a fair schedule. You rotate interleague divisions. And you play other divisions in your league the same as everyone else. A wild card between divisions is inherently unfair, but a balanced schedule would probably be worse. Maybe they could cut the division games to 12-14 and try to play 9 against the other divisions, but then you would run into some home/road inbalances.

A 4 division 32-team setup might be a bit better. 4 8-team divisions. 12 against your own division. 6-7 against the other. 3 against one division in the other league. Then you probably get to 12 playoff teams. 1 and 2 in each division and then 2 more wild cards.

The larger the divisions are, then winning the division should be really meaningful.

[BostonRoss]

Excluding the rivalry games, the schedules aren't exactly the same within a division, but they are closer than they used to be. Against the AL Central, the Nationals had four games against the White Sox and three against everyone else. The Phillies had four against the Tigers. When the NL had two more teams than the AL, the discrepancies were much worse. In 22007, when the NL West had three teams within one game of each other, Arizona played three more interleague games than Colorado and San Diego, and the Rockies and Padres had only one common interleague opponent.

The rivalry games could still make a difference, though. And the discrepancy for the wild card contenders in different divisions could be much worse, both due to playing different interleague opponents and more games within divisions that could be of different strengths.

[zambonir]

I do think four divisions is the way to go but I'm not sure how you expand the playoffs without shortening the regular season (or starting it even earlier but that has just as many weather issues as October baseball). I guess it could be Top 4 teams, bye for the division winners, two wild cards in each league (first in an elimination game and then a 3 game series against the 3 and 4 seeds). If there is even still separate leagues (though pretty much all sports still hew to that basic conceit with conferences).

[andyb]

That 3-game wild card series would not necessarily take more time than the 1-game series we have today if they just eliminate any play-in games. A 3 game series all at the home park of the 2nd place team (against one of the wild cards) would just take 3 days. Monday-Wednesday or Tuesday-Thursday with the division series starting Thursday or Friday like they do now. Big bonus for winning the division (getting a bye and avoiding 3 games in 3-4 days), but winning an 8-team division should be important.

I don't think baseball absolutely has to expand, but it sure looks likely and 32 is probably better for the long term than 36.

[julio]

do think four divisions is the way to go but I'm not sure how you expand the playoffs without shortening the regular season (or starting it even earlier but that has just as many weather issues as October baseball). I guess it could be Top 4 teams, bye for the division winners, two wild cards in each league (first in an elimination game and then a 3 game series against the 3 and 4 seeds). If there is even still separate leagues (though pretty much all sports still hew to that basic conceit with conferences).

You can go to four divisions without expanding the post-season... Just take the top two teams in each division - you've actually shortened the post-season by one ridiculous "play in" wild card game. A post season tourney with 25% of the teams in MLB doesn't seem unreasonably "restrictive" to me.

That, or else end the regular season on Labor Day (with the minors), and conduct a post-season tourney with all 32 teams (assuming expansion to 32). If you're going to devalue the regular season with multiple wild cards, and more than 25% of the clubs qualifying for the post-season, might as well go all the way.

[LoneStarPhan]

Vargas starting for the Phillies in Cleveland tonight. An important start for him and for the team, although I'd guess more important for Vargas. So far, he has done significantly worse for the Phillies than he had done with the Mets this season. Another start like his last couple should seal his fate and make him history in Philadelphia. For the team, I am hoping for some more wins before the end of the season but clearly the Phillies' season ends this month.

[David_Criss]

I have to think both he and Smyly are history come the end of October.

[gmwannabe]

thinking about being history, David, what are your thoughts about Hoskins? unfortunately, i think he might be one of the bigger disappointments this year. Tough to see it. As i mentioned a few weeks ago, another Tommy Joseph? Hall is waiting in the wings and is sort of streaky also. can he get a decent starting pitcher in a trade? if he doesn't have that bad stretch after the all star break, pitching withstanding, i think the phils are still in the race.
gm

[phillychuck]

thinking about being history, David, what are your thoughts about Hoskins? unfortunately, i think he might be one of the bigger disappointments this year. Tough to see it. As i mentioned a few weeks ago, another Tommy Joseph? Hall is waiting in the wings and is sort of streaky also. can he get a decent starting pitcher in a trade? if he doesn't have that bad stretch after the all star break, pitching withstanding, i think the phils are still in the race.

You are trading Hoskins at his lowest value if you swap him now. He was average or a little below for an NL 1B this year, ride it out for at least another year.

[gmwannabe]

Make sense there. on another note, where do the phils sit in drafting next year. how much better, of a position can they get ., with a poor finish.
gm

[andyb]

Hoskins has definitely had a bad year, but he seems more messed up at the plate than anything else. Some extended time with Charlie might be all that he needs. The bat speed is there. The strike zone judgement is there. He is just not putting it all together. Pitchers have adjusted and he needs to adjust back. I was actually into the experiment that had him first or second in the order. Let's take advantage of his OBP there while he is struggling for power.

Hall is also not a replacement. 798 OPS repeating Reading is not a sign of a major league regular even if he has a legit power tool. The time to trade Hoskins was last year. We could have received something substantial for him (like a number 2-3 starter), kept Santana at 1B, kept Crawford, and really moved the team forward. That time is gone. He is better than he was this year so no interest in trading him.

[Philsmania]

While I don't think Hoskins will ever be star and I do believe he is overrated, comparing him to Tommy Joseph (or even Darrin Ruf) is a bit too much. And, I doubt Hall is a replacement. More likely, Bohm displaces him at third.

[andyb]

Athletic has a long article on Nick Williams. His brother, a vet, was killed in an accident last month and he has been back and forth to Texas a couple of times for that and the funeral. Still does not really explain why he has been completely buried on the bench after playing pretty well at AAA, but it does explain some of the AAA absences.

The things Nick Williams carries

[zambonir]

That's tough. Obviously the Phillies weren't going to (and didn't) begrudge him that kind of personal time (nor when his wife graduated college for that matter). But I still think it went bad when he almost missed his original reporting deadline.

Kind of funny he didn't ever spend a night in Allentown either but with no traffic it's no further than many Philly suburbs. Rusney Castillo has never moved to Pawtucket.

The thing is, Gabe can say he's behind a couple of guys with a straight face. It might not be entirely fair but but it's still true. His AAA numbers don't mean any more than Dylan Cozens or Mitch Walding's ever did. What Williams has going for him is that he did do it in the major leagues for a while. But nothing he did this year suggests he'd actually do better than the guys ahead of him (who also hit three home runs between them last night). At the end of the day Brad MIller has an .813 OPS, was just as good a major league player as Williams during his high point, and is defensively neutral at least. And Bruce is obviously the best DH/PH.

The fact that they even signed Morrison, let alone put him on the 40, at a time when they had so man LH batters to begin with, was really the last straw.

Meanwhile, the Cubs really could have let us back in the race but instead we didn't do enough and the Brewers made it happen. We could still spoil it for the Nat (or even keep our own hopes alive) with that ever-elusive, still-hasn't-happened, lengthy win streak. I wonder if we also affect Joe Maddon's job status, or is that over regardless (he had to win the division at least and it's really more of a personality/scapegoat thing anyway)?

[andyb]

It is a little hard to say with a straight face though why he has not even received pinch hit at bats. When guys like Rodriguez are in the game they should be PH for early if a RHP enters the game at any point. That is how you use a large bench to get platoon advantages in more parts of the game. Bruce and Morrison may be a bit better, but they also run less well and Bruce has been hurt half the time Williams could have played. Yes, they decided these other players were better, but the difference is really not that great. Analytics probably would show Williams is better against certain pitchers.

There is just silence when this team buries a player. Like Crawford last year as well. With time those decisions don't look that good. I think Williams is every bit as good a hitter against RHP now as Miller and Morrison are. This would not be the first time this team has used SSS analytic data to make a stupid long term move (how did Hoskins in LF work out?).

One AB in 20+ games? As Joe Biden would say, "Cmon". It is a manager who shows favoritism to his guys. All managers do it. They just need to be called on it.

[nycphils]

I have a hard time believing the favoritism comes from Kapler...I would guess it comes from Klentak, because if it was Gabe and the F.O. told him to play Williams I feel confident that he would play.

Admittedly, I don’t know, just speculating.