2019 Phillies Season Discussion (part 2)

[Austinfan]

I think you're grossly underestimating Haseley.
He's made major strides in the past couple months and I think he's going to be a solid ML hitter, .800+ OPS.
He's got good power, a sweet stroke, and once he relaxed, good plate discipline.

He's at least average if not above average in CF (looks like he has good speed and plus instincts) and well above average fielding the corner spots.

[BostonRoss]

I agree we don't know what will become available, unlike last year when we knew Harper and Machado were on the market. But as you say,Realmuto was a nice surprise acquisition. (Segura I think of as not so much an improvement but a necessary shuffling to get Hoskins out of LF. He brought more certainty than Crawford, and essentially we replaced Santana's bat with McCutchen.)

I'm hoping that there is a big bat to be had. Maybe Donaldson. I can't imagine the Phillies would pay Rendon's price. Maybe there's another surprise out there. Of course it would be better to improve the pitching, but it might be possible to do both by spending money.

I don't see Herrera, Williams, or Franco contributing in 2020 though one of them might still be on the bench.

As to your question about a huge deal for Hoskins, it depends on whether any offense is coming back and at what defensive position. If no offense is coming back, I would consider Bruce replacing Hopkins in the lineup to hurt the offense--even more so with Franco--(of course if the deal is "huge" and no offense is coming in return, that implies a big pitching upgrade, and so maybe an offensive decline could be accommodated). A question would be where Kingery plays. If Cesar is still around, that leaves 3B and CF--or maybe he could play some 1B. Or maybe one of the other OFs could play 1B, if we get another outfielder somewhere else.

[zambonir]

Will he be an .800+ OPS hitter from door to door next year though? I mean, Jean Segura isn't that either. So if Haseley is a plus defensive CF and they get more offense from 2B and 3B, great.

But you don't actually care/expect to win the NL East next year, so you're happy to just ride Haseley's ups and downs. I don't know that the front office will be, especially since their jobs are going to be on the line before the Haseley/Bohm era truly begins.

[BostonRoss]

It's a good question though. I mean, he's up here getting paid and adding to his service time and that was the right thing to do. I assume De Los Santos, Hammer and Medina only get paid minor league wages to be in Clearwater (though who knows, maybe even not that, their presence there could be "optional" or considered off-season workouts unless and until they get a call.

I'm assuming that any pitchers that are on the 40 could be recalled this month if a current pitcher goes down. I can remember people getting called up in the last week of the season to cover an injury.

What will happen next year when the callups are limited? I guess you could place a player on the IL in September. There's not much reason to do that now unless you needed to replace a player with someone not on the 40--in which case I guess you'd have to put the injured player on the 60-day IL.

[zambonir]

Those are the three remaining players on the 40 and it was reported they are all in Clearwater, as an emergency "taxi squad." Apparently it's also possible Ramos could come off the 60.

[Austinfan]

Haseley was the #8 pick, he's steadily progressed through the system, he was promoted too quickly due to injuries and has adjusted to ML pitching. If you don't trust him next year, just trade all your prospects b/c you won't trust Bohm for three years, Stott for five, and so on.

[zambonir]

But that's the point, he's ahead of schedule. He probably would have come up next July as a bench player under a normal timeline. As it is an injury and an arrest opened the door. He's exceeded expectations and that's great but development isn't linear and you have to plan for all scenarios. He could seize CF and be fine all year. He could be fine as a 4th OF all year. Or he could hit a huge wall and be sent back to AAA. Given the lack of CF options available it probably doesn't matter, there's no slam-dunk starting CF to take time away from Haseley, just a bunch of acceptable in-house alternatives.

We shall see.

[Austinfan]

That's why Kingery is so valuable. Insurance.
But this team doesn't have the cap room to extend Realmuto and buy 2-3 major pieces.
So if they're going to catch the Braves, they need Haseley and Bohm to be for real and not 3 years from now.

[bigegypt0417]

Kingery is insurance? Insurance for what?

He's the starting second baseman next year.

Phillies have the room to re-up Realmuto and make 2 or 3 major moves. The phillies are a big market team and will need to spend like a big market team.

[julio]

Kingery is insurance? Insurance for what?

He's the starting second baseman next year.

How many times have we seen arguments that, when parsed down to their essential meaning, are something like, "Scott Kingery is too valuable to be in the starting lineup; he needs to be on the bench to provide flexibility."

[bigegypt0417]

Alex Carr on Twitter

[bigegypt0417]

Kingery is insurance? Insurance for what?

He's the starting second baseman next year.

How many times have we seen arguments that, when parsed down to their essential meaning, are something like, "Scott Kingery is too valuable to be in the starting lineup; he needs to be on the bench to provide flexibility."

I have read that quite a few times but that was mostly when he was fairly terrible.

It seems to me that he's played himself in to a ML lineup.

[tom81]

Kingery is too valuable not to be in the starting lineup. He may also be too valuable to be in the starting lineup in the same position every start.

[bigegypt0417]

With Cesar almost surely gone I'm not sure he can moved around as much.

[julio]

With Cesar almost surely gone I'm not sure he can moved around as much.

Do you have some basis for saying Cesar is "almost surely gone," or is this wishful thinking?

[mdougherty12]

It doesn't seem at all certain to me that Cesar will be gone next season.

[bkeich]

I can't really think of much reason to get rid of Hernandez, while he will command about $8-10M, he will surely provide about that much in WAR. We dont have a big need to start parsing down our starting positions while our need for pitching is so dire. He is a serviceable 2B, not great, but certainly not bad either.

Besides, I really do think that Kingery is best as our super sub. We will have injuries next year and I would rather have the first big injury covered by Kingery. He is perfectly capable of continuing in that role for at least another year, in fact, that is one of his major values. As a day-day 3B he may not have the bat, as a day-day 2B he may not be the best fielder, but as a flexible player he is very valuable.

Franco will probably be non-tendered, but I really cant see a reason to non-tender Hernandez.

[nycphils]

I think it is quite likely Cesar is non tendered. Last year and this year his OPS+ has been between 90-95 so he’s not a league average hitter, and he’s never been a great defender.

Brad Miller costs $1m and has a 95 OPS+. It should be easy to find a substitute for Cesar who is at least as good for $5m+ less - we will need those dollars for pitching most likely.

[julio]

Besides, I really do think that Kingery is best as our super sub. We will have injuries next year and I would rather have the first big injury covered by Kingery. He is perfectly capable of continuing in that role for at least another year, in fact, that is one of his major values. As a day-day 3B he may not have the bat, as a day-day 2B he may not be the best fielder, but as a flexible player he is very valuable.

What did I tell you? He's "more valuable" as a sub than as a regular!

"As a day-day 3B he may not have the bat" - Kingery's 2019 OPS stands at .814. That's generally a good enough bat to hold down third base.

"as a day-day 2B he may not be the best fielder" - In 2017, Kingery won a Gold Glove as the best 2B in the International League. We don't have major-league defensive metrics on Kingery, because Kapler's only put him out there in 14 games. But the evidence we do have suggests that Kingery is quite adequate, at least, at second base.

I love the idea of being able to plug an injury hole with a player of Kngery's caliber. Who wouldn't like that? But to take that player out of the starting lineup, in favor of an inferior player, just to have that "flexibility" in case of injury?

[Lawman]

Kingery is an everyday player, and the fact that he can play multiple positions without it seemingly impacting his comfort at the plate is fantastic. It affords the front office flexibility knowing that Kingery can shift around the diamond.