2019 MLB Draft Speculation

[Squire]

Recent Phillies Early Round Draft Trend Discussion:

1. California High Schoolers - Moniak, Gowdy, Pipkin. Stephen

2. California College Pitchers - Howard, Seabold, Eastman, Quinn, Dyer

3. Midwest College Hitters - Bohm, Vierling, Maton

4. Georgia High Schoolers - Lindow, Simmons

5. University of Mississippi - Lartigue, MacArthur, Parkinson

6. Virginia/Carolinas College Hitters: Haseley, Stokes, Lancaster

[Purduke]

Have you ever read anything about why we seem to avoid Texas and Florida kids? That seems to go back quite awhile, especially with Texas, so it idoesn't seem just an "Almaraz/Klentak are West Coast guys" thing -- albeit, the CAL tie certainly seems to have been prominent since they arrived, going back to some "we see something" overdraft picks like Lucas Williams. Think there was a second one that year to.

[fish]

Have you ever read anything about why we seem to avoid Texas and Florida kids?

Probably more to do with voices they favor in their scouting department located in other regions than avoiding any particular area. Other than Long Island, they operate like they don't really understand what regions and what demographics they are good at. They have hired a lot of new guys the last 2 years though.

Who scouts what has become pretty tough to figure out- but i did just figure out one good way. Search "Philadelphia Phillies Scout" on linkedIn. You'll come up with a ton of names you never knew you never knew.

[Squire]

Where have you gone....Doug Takaragawa??

[andyb]

I think a fair share of the new scouts work off video rather than regions these days. Certainly the pro scouts do where there is video of just about every minor league game available. Often statcast data too. Scouting is evolving. Lots of 50-60 year olds being gradually replaced by 25 year olds with advanced degrees.

[fish]

Where have you gone....Doug Takaragawa??

Apparently still molding future failed prospects at the ESI institute.

[andyb]

Carter Stewart, the 8th overall pick that the Braves lowballed last year because of medical reports signs in Japan for $7 million over 6 years. It is a year short of him being an international free agent at age 25, but to me it clearly looks like he is making a bet that will pay him $7 million guaranteed (vs $2-$4 million in the next 6 years in the U.S.) and then position himself for a 25-year-old free agency.

Scott Boras is the agent of course, but this does show a loophole in the draft though I think few amateurs would be willing to go to Japan for 6 years to exploit it.

Passan: How a 19-year-old prospect is turning the MLB draft upside down

[fish]

Soo, which is the most likely outcome- after 2 years he's miserable, stinks, and get's released, or is miserable and pleads for his release?

Moving yourself to Japan at 19 to learn how to be a ballplayer in the pursuit of more cash sounds like a monumental mistake. It's hard enough for seasoned vets to make that move.

[Lawman]

I was thinking the same thing. I think this kid will be in complete culture shock. I can't see this as turning out successful.

[jimbomill]

Moving yourself to Japan at 19 to learn how to be a ballplayer in the pursuit of more cash sounds like a monumental mistake

I think he'll have a Boras support system available to him. He has a good shot to be just fine.

[julio]

Soo, which is the most likely outcome- after 2 years he's miserable, stinks, and get's released, or is miserable and pleads for his release?

Moving yourself to Japan at 19 to learn how to be a ballplayer in the pursuit of more cash sounds like a monumental mistake. It's hard enough for seasoned vets to make that move.

Your premise here is that young Americans can't handle this? Young Venezuelans and Dominicans appear to be able to survive it.

It strikes me that it may well be harder for veteran ballplayers to make this kind of adjustment than for a 19-year-old. Veterans have expectations, based on their years of experience, that a kid right out of high school may not.

I was thinking the same thing. I think this kid will be in complete culture shock. I can't see this as turning out successful.

As noted above, Latin kids go through major culture shock all the time, and seem to be OK. For that matter, take an urban black American kid, or a kid from suburban San Diego, and drop him into some little town in the Appy League (or Williamsport!), and you're going to get a bit of that, too.

[fish]

Soo, which is the most likely outcome- after 2 years he's miserable, stinks, and get's released, or is miserable and pleads for his release?
Moving yourself to Japan at 19 to learn how to be a ballplayer in the pursuit of more cash sounds like a monumental mistake. It's hard enough for seasoned vets to make that move.

Your premise here is that young Americans can't handle this? Young Venezuelans and Dominicans appear to be able to survive it.

It strikes me that it may well be harder for veteran ballplayers to make this kind of adjustment than for a 19-year-old. Veterans have expectations, based on their years of experience, that a kid right out of high school may not.

Lawman:
I was thinking the same thing. I think this kid will be in complete culture shock. I can't see this as turning out successful.

As noted above, Latin kids go through major culture shock all the time, and seem to be OK. For that matter, take an urban black American kid, or a kid from suburban San Diego, and drop him into some little town in the Appy League (or Williamsport!), and you're going to get a bit of that, too.

Latin kids have built-in support systems from the organization, dozens of comrades in a shared situation, and still a high failure rate (though I couldn't say if it's any different than a ballplayer from anywhere else). It's not to discount how difficult it is for anyone to adjust to new cultures, but an American teenager trying to learn pro-ball in Japan? We can't all agree that's a pretty obvious high risk category?

[andyb]

In other draft news (though this could be international also), MLB is now seriously discussing an international draft. Latest proposal would be 15 rounds but with hard slots (not pools) and tradeable picks.

I think they see this as a way around some of the deals with 14 and 15-year-olds that we know happen. That might be a greater benefit than the pitfalls they used to see in an international draft.

MLB Discussing How An International Draft Would Work

[Squire]

New Post to come

[baseballoldie]

I think this is a very exciting move for a teenager to make and applaud Stewart for having the courage to spurn MLB and go overseas. He is a trailblazer and it will open the door for other players to strongly consider the Asian baseball leagues as viable options to the MLB minor league system/process. There is no doubt he will have, and can afford, a lot of support to be with him while he is there.

[BostonRoss]

There seem to be a few Boras clients who may not be strong-willed and are willing to be guided by him into situations that are more lucrative but perhaps not where they would be happiest. A-Rod in Texas, for example. A stronger-willed player may know his desires better and can make them clear to his agent, who will follow his client's instructions. I hope that Stewart is one of the stronger ones and is happy in Japan.

[zambonir]

Hey, if he was a 19 year-old engineering student or musician - or even a pro basketball or hockey player - nobody would think it was weird. Maybe he has a genuine sense of adventure. Adjusting to the baseball culture will probably be trickier than the culture in general.

The thing is his chance of failing is high in either country (especially if the Braves are right about his medicals). If that's the case, now he fails with $7 million instead of $2 million. 6 years in Japan is pretty extreme but is it really worse than where Cornelius Randolph has spent the last five years? (No offense to those places but this kid will travel and live in much greater style).

[Squire]

2019 MLB Mock Draft Version 3 | Perfect Game USA

Somehow everyone is convinced that Gunnar Henderson is our guy.....or everybody is just repeating other mocks the way that Tyler Stephenson was our guy in 2015

[fish]

While the competition level is questionable, the one thing that stands out to me about him is that he's generating really good bat speed with a simple and quiet swing- no gearing up his body or hands to try to build momentum or timing. Body certainly looks like he'll add another 10-15 lbs of strength, but from the video he doesn't look like a viable pro shortstop. Seems like a Carter Kieboom kind of pick.

[Squire]

Friday 5/24 BA Mock

1. Orioles - Rutschman, C
2. Royals - Witt, SS
3. White Sox - Abrams, SS
4. Marlins - Bleday, OF
5. Tigers - Vaughn, 1B
6. Padres - Greene, OF
7. Reds - Lodolo, LHP
8. Rangers - Rutledge, RHP
9. Braves- Bishop, OF
10. Giants - Stott, SS
11. Blue Jays - Manoah, RHP
12. Mets - Thompson, LHP
13. Twins - Langeliers, C
14. PHILLIES - KIRBY, RHP
    Comment: It’s sounding more and more likely that Philadelphia doesn’t get a shot at Rutledge here, though if he does make it he would likely be the pick. The Phillies are being linked heavily with Thompson and Kirby here, and there have been some rumors that they are intrigued with Davidson as well.

Weird....no mention of Henderson at all.