2019 Minor League Pitching Rotation Speculation

[Squire]

Just posting a different topic to expand the breadth of our current discussions. I know that there are certain posters who like to speculate that the Phillies will go with 8-10 starting pitcher rotations but I'll stick my preferred six at each location as I tend to prefer to live in reality:

AAA Lehigh Valley
LHP Cole Irvin
RHP Enyel De Los Santos
LHP Ranger Suarez
RHP Tyler Viza
LHP Jojo Romero
RHP Drew Anderson

AA Reading Phillies
RHP Adonis Medina
RHP Connor Seabold
LHP Bailey Falter
RHP Mauricio Llovera
RHP Ramon Rosso
LHP David Parkinson

A Clearwater Threshers
RHP Sixto Sanchez
RHP Spencer Howard
LHP Will Stewart
LHP Damon Jones
LHP Kyle Young
RHP Andrew Brown

A Lakewood Blueclaws
RHP Colton Eastman
RHP Manuel Silva
LHP Ethan Lindow
RHP Francisco Morales
LHP Jhordany Mezquita
RHP Kevin Gowdy

[baseballoldie]

Good list - I can see Eshelman in the mix for AAA, Sixto & Requena in AA, Eastman & Fanti in High A. Could the teams employ 7 man rotations?

[andyb]

Not sure about 7 man rotations. Injuries and innings limits should allow other starters to get their work in at many levels.

The one change that could be interesting is if they decide to go for more tandem starts at the lower levels. 2 guys going 3-4 innings. With 2 GCL teams plus Williamsport they are definitely feeding a lot of potential starters into Lakewood and it might be a good idea to keep as many of them throwing longer outings as possible, even if they eventually end up in the bullpen.

Not sure what they will do with him, but I am curious as to how they will treat Mauricio Llovera this year. He clearly belongs in the AA rotation off of last year, but I also would not be shocked if he is put on the Seranthony program to see if he might be a second half reliever that could come up and help the back end of the MLB bullpen.

[nycphils]

Reading will be very interesting this year if that is the rotation...if they perform well, that would be great for the future. More likely Parkinson, Rosso and Falter take a significant step down as the hitters catch up to weak stuff, but more hope that Medina, Seabold and Llovera prove to be real SP prospects (or live up to the hype, in the case of Medina).

[Austinfan]

AA Reading Phillies

I think Eshelman has missed the boat, at age 25, with subpar stuff, he needed to show he had the command to make it work last year, Viza had a good AFL and is a year younger.

Tavares might push for a spot in AA if he's healthy, but at 25 with marginal stuff, he's also on the bubble.

Gustavo Armas may beat out Young at Clearwater, having him repeat Lakewood. Young had 9 starts, Armas 8 at Lakewood last year, but Armas is 23 and throws harder right now.

If Young repeats in Lakewood, Gowdy may start in Williamsport after XST, they may want to work him in slowly and spend some time coaching him up before putting him on the fast track.

Williamsport will also have a top rotation if Gowdy starts there:
Gowdy, Santos, Pipkin, Brown, Glogowski, Vargas, Cotto, Miller
Brown is 6'6 230 and at 18 was hitting 94.
Vargas was a $525 bonus, projectable arm.
Santos has decent velocity at 19, but great command, 3 BB/61K
Cotto at 6'5 175 has projectable velocity
Glogoski is a Kiwi who has shown well so far

They've build a really deep pitching group, not just the 90-92 guys, but some big arms as well.

[phillychuck]

AAA Lehigh Valley

LHP Cole Irvin...rooting hard for him, but he's been HR prone in the high minors. Wonder if his stuff would bump up in relief?
RHP Enyel De Los Santos...throws harder than Irvin but still gives up too much hard contact. Needs a better off-speed pitch.
LHP Ranger Suarez...doesn't miss bats but keeps the ball in the park. #5 starter upside?
RHP Tyler Viza...very good AA year a big step up from his previous performance.
LHP Jojo Romero...too wild and too HR prone to succeed at Philly. Needs to step up
RHP Drew Anderson...best stuff of the AAA group, but that is faint praise

More to come.

[gmwannabe]

great post squire. very excited to go out and see this group at reading. i think we might be able to see sixto and spence there also before the season is out. would love to see gowdy go through an injury free season, to see what he has. viza could be the dark horse here with the late season run he had plus the very good game he had ending the AFL. i'll agree with the drew anderson notes. when i saw him at reading he looked real good. he does have very good stuff, i just don't know why he hasn't sustained any success up in the bigs. maybe this year. a lot of good prospects. looking forward to Kit's daily minor league thread. should give us a lot of discussion and hopefully alot of success.
gm

[andyb]

LHP Jojo Romero...too wild and too HR prone to succeed at Philly. Needs to step up

Not sure this is completely fair to Romero. In 2017 he gave up 4 HR in Lakewood and Clearwater. Lakewood suppresses home runs but Clearwater does not. Then in 2018 he gave up 13 HR in 106.2 IP in Reading. He actually gave up more home runs on the road so it was clearly the better hitters in AA and not the Reading park. But he also got better throughout the season. He gave up 11 HRs in his 10 starts in April and May. Then only 2 more in his 8 starts the rest of the season.

No argument that his 3.5/9 walk rate needs to come down. But it does look like he did a better job of keeping the ball in the park in the second half of the season which is the type of development curve one should expect. I think he has earned the promotion to AAA (though injuries did rob him of 30-40 AA innings), but home runs are not my biggest concern.

He does look like a back end 4/5 starter developmentally, but there is really nothing that suggests he could not become as good as Eickhoff or Eflin for instance. Probably needs a whole year, maybe a year and a half in AAA, but I feel better about his stuff than Suarez for instance. Not a world of difference, but if he is throwing in the 92-94 range with a good change and athleticism it is a decent set of tools to work with.

[phillychuck]

When I meant he needed to step up, I meant he needed to continue to improve, not that he didn't have potential. If his command and control improve, he can help out. He's another guy I'm really rooting for.

[phillychuck]

AA Reading Phillies

RHP Adonis Medina--good stuff, three plus pitches, pretty consistent success. He's a little bit HR prone. Great prospect, just needs to adjust to the high minors hitters.
RHP Connor Seabold--control pitcher, HR prone (especially in Reading). If he learns to keep the ball in the park in that AA bandbox he has #4/5 potential.
LHP Bailey Falter--sneakily effective high-A season. Doesn't miss a lot of bats, but does just enough of everything. If his HR rate stays low he should keep moving up.
RHP Mauricio Llovera--Really good FB, and a plus splitter, slider combo. Deserves more attention.
RHP Ramon Rosso--one of my favorite prospects, but might struggle at higher levels. Great K-rates, great control, very low HR rates. Rooting for a great season.
LHP David Parkinson--dominated A, was very good in A+. Scouts aren't impressed by his stuff, this year will be the litmus test.

[allentown]

I think at least one of Rosso, Parkinson will be in the bullpen.

[zambonir]

I brushed by your first post because I thought it was a mistake. Maybe retype the names of the players you feel like commenting on instead of leaving the whole thing in quotes so it looks like Squire wrote all of your words?

[julio]

I brushed by your first post the cause I thought it was a mistake. Maybe retype the names of the players you feel like commenting on instead of leaving the whole thing in quotes so it looks like Squire wrote all of your words?

People used to do the "in line" commenting thing on our older board, putting their comments in a different color. Discourse doesn't support that. So yeah, retype the names of players (or copy and paste the list of names - it's a couple of keystrokes) if you want to be clear.

EDIT: Or in a case like this, just delete the quote command after you pull in the quote - I edited PC's two posts, so they no longer show up as if they were long quotes from Squire.

[phillychuck]

A Clearwater Threshers

RHP Sixto Sanchez...100+ mph FB, tough to hit, plus curve, good change. Only question is health
RHP Spencer Howard...another 100 mph FB. Slow-rising college grad was literally unhittable at the end of the season. Needs a bit more control, 3 plus secondary pitches.
LHP Will Stewart...MLB average stuff across the board, control improved in Lakewood last year
LHP Damon Jones...older lefty was effective but wild in Lakewood. Would move quickly with improved control
LHP Kyle Young...hard pitcher to evaluate--his size seems to make up for lack of high-end velocity. Needs to stay healthy
RHP Andrew Brown...good control and a low HR rate but doesn't miss many bats

Note--Lakewood suppresses offense so much (as does the Sally League in general) that it's tough to tell great, projectable pitching from just good pitching for the level. Scouts love Sanchez and Howard, the rest not so much in terms of projectability. Sure was fun to follow that staff last year, though!

[allentown]

It looks like CLW will be the staff to watch, at least in April/May. By June Sixto, and possibly Howard, have good chance to be in Reading. Looks like Allentown holds our future #4/5 starters, but that the #2/3 come from CLW.

[phillychuck]

I'm really nervous about Sanchez and Young in terms of health, but both of them could be #1 or #2 starters. Howard has top 1/2 potential, too, although he has been moved slowly by college player standards. At least he's been healthy, and he didn't have a lot of innings in college.

[fish]

I'm really nervous about Sanchez and Young in terms of health, but both of them could be #1 or #2 starters.

Kyle Young is basically minor league Eric Hillman at this point. Not to say he isn't interesting, but nothing about his stuff says #1 or #2 right now.

[phillychuck]

Fish, what I've read is that his extreme height makes his stuff very difficult for the hitter to pick up. Hope it's true, or that he picks up a few mph as he grows into his frame. Hope he's closer to Randy Johnson than Eric Hillman...

[xogfog]

It is an interesting situation, with hitting tending towards uppercut swings, launch angle, etc.., they feast on pitching that is down in the zone. Pitchers that throw on an upward angle are having more success, so how does a tall pitcher fare with these factors, since their up stuff is still coming on a downward angle?

[Austinfan]

Young gets a little "effective velocity" from a release point closer to home plate, but it's not a huge advantage.
He's more wishful thinking right now, a 7'0 pitcher - but velocity comes from arm speed, not height, or Sixto couldn't hit 100 MPH.