2019 Minor League Outfield Speculation Thread

[Squire]

I'll assign Starters Plus Two:

Lehigh Valley:
LF Austin Listi
CF Adam Haseley
RF Jan Hernandez
Others: Shane Robinson, Lane Adams
Comments: I think Quinn sticks with the Major League team and actually Cozens does too.

Reading:
LF Cornelius Randolph:
CF: Mickey Moniak
RF: Jose Pujols
Others: Jiandido Tromp, Grenny Cumana

Clearwater
LF: Matt Vierling
CF: Simon Muzzioti
RF: Jhailyn Ortiz
Others: Danny Mayer, Josh Stephen

Lakewood
LF: Ben Pelletier
CF: Malvin Matos
RF: Ben Aklinski
Others: Luke Miller, Keudy Bocio

[zambonir]

Comments: I think Quinn sticks with the Major League team and actually Cozens does too.

Don't see how there's room for Cozens on what will surely be a four-man bench again. Quinn/Kingery/catcher/4th spot. Altherr may even have the edge there if they go with a 2nd OF. Or it's Williams' spot if they sign Harper and still want to keep him.

Anyway, a bit OT but I think he's in Allentown.

[andyb]

GCL names that could figure in Lakewood are Yerwin Trejo and James Smith. Smith was way too old for GCL (small school I believe, not sure he is seen as much of a prospect) and Trejo was slightly old at 21 (though the Phillies liked him enough to bat him leadoff all year).

I suppose Stephen could repeat as well because playing him might be more important than playing someone like Aklinski.

[tom81]

I think there is also a good chance that Williams starts the year in AAA given the chance we sign Harper. If they want to try to win having major league ready depth in AAA is a good thing for the team even if it would sux for Williams. Williams still has options while both Quinn and Altherr don’t. Even if they trade one of Quinn, Alther, or Herrera they still may have Williams start in AAA if they go with a four man bench and don’t consider Quinn viable at SS.

Similarly in the SP thread you might see Eflin or Pivetta start the year in AAA too.

[zambonir]

Not Pivetta. Eflin maybe/probably.

I think I would probably just trade Williams right away, it would not be good for his development or his trade value to send him down. Not ruling it out, especially since he could also be up fast if Quinn gets hurt again. It's a tough business. But I don't really see it. Who knows if we're really getting Harper though.

[Austinfan]

Cozens will be in Lehigh, and I'll bet on Pujols as well, do or die for him.
I think Tromp is gone, Markham will be in Reading as roster fodder.

I'll bet on Muzzioti and Ortiz repeating Lakewood, and Alstare in Clearwater

[andyb]

Probably a better chance Alastre will not make it through Spring Training than him starting above Muzziotti and Ortiz at Clearwater. It is not a guarantee that those two will both get promoted, but an OPS in the mid-600s from a 19-year-old in Lakewood is actually not that bad. There won't really be any OF holdovers at Clearwater. Muzziotti and Ortiz would really have to play poorly in the Spring to not get promoted to Clearwater. They both had a higher OPS than Moniak did at Lakewood.

[Austinfan]

Ortiz and Muzzioti didn't show much last year, and are young enough to start at Lakewood and work their way up to Clearwater. Whether it's Alastre or some other marginal prospect, the decision won't be based on a roster vacancy but their development.

Of course, if they show in in minor league camp with all guns blazing, they "self-promote."

[andyb]

They "showed" better than Moniak last year at Lakewood. And Alastre is an afterthought these days. There is a very strong chance they are in Clearwater because they are good prospects that need to be challenged. They also performed well enough to think they can do well in Clearwater. Ortiz had a 741 road OPS (and we know Lakewood hurts power hitters). Muzziotti had opposite splits but also hit .263 overall with plus defense so a 630 overall OPS at age 19 is still respectable.

These players were not overmatched. They are not guaranteed Clearwater but given the lack of actual OF prospects there (since all the legit prospects from last year should be at Reading) there are many more reasons to promote them than to not promote them. Your analysis of age vs level stats remains pretty selective.

[allentown]

Ortiz and Muzzioti didn't show much last year, and are young enough to start at Lakewood

I'd rather they, especially Ortiz, started in CLW for 2 reasons: 1)the warmer weather reduces injury likelihood and more importantly 2) I'd rather our hitters learn to hit and observe what works in a place other than the extreme pitcher's paradise of Lakewood. You don't teach reasonable HR-hitting, in the case of Ortiz, in a ballpark which teaches that you have to absolutely murder the ball to get a HR. That is not conducive to learning a swing which combines contact with HR-power. Since you don't have to murder the ball to get a HR in Philly, LKWD is an especially poor training ground for a young power hitter. I think the Phillies would be well advised to modify the LKWD park to make it play more neutral. These are young hitters who haven't fully grown into their power, so a power-sapping park impedes their development. I don't think it does the pitchers any favors to have them learn their trade in such an easy environment. Move the real prospects past LKWD as fast a possible, unless it's fixed.

[andyb]

All that logic about Lakewood makes sense. Though I would also say that people overreact to a 650 OPS. To the Phillies that is doing OK, especially from a 19-year-old. To the average fan it is struggling. Now if these 2 players were 21 and put up these stats (like an Alastre) they would not be due any sort of promotion.

Tools are part of the equation also. Players with tools generally can keep getting promoted because their tools allow them to survive at higher levels. Freddy Galvis kept getting promoted to Reading because it was the right decision to put him in an environment where he could learn to hit enough at the big league level while his tools allowed him to survive defensively.

Good prospects should be challenged. That does not mean they should be rewarded for failure, but if there are enough good things they should be promoted. Muzziotti and Ortiz did enough good things (like Moniak) where they deserve to be promoted. I have been as tough on Moniak as anybody. But I also understand that he should be promoted (last year to Clearwater, this year to Reading) even though he has not dominated. My criticism is more the realization that he is likely a 4th OF type, not what one wants from the 1-1 pick.