2019-2020 Winter Leagues

[andyb]

Pretty good first few games for the Phillies in Arizona:
Bohm 6-12, 2B
Stephen 2-4
Maton 4-12, 2B, HR, BB
Moniak 3-15, SB
Howard and Seabold, 3 scoreless innings. Romero gave up a run in 1.1 IP.

[andyb]

The organizational winter summary page is now working:
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/org.jsp?id=phi&y=2019

Stephen was 3-4 with a 3B on Sunday along with a scoreless inning from Romero. May not mean quite as much as it was a 17-0 victory over Los Mochis, one of the Mexican winter teams participating this year and might be a lower talent level than the US teams (collectively 0-3 so far). Still a couple weeks away from other leagues startting.

[Squire]

Seabold with another good start

5IP, 4H, 1ER, 2BB, 8K

Bohm, 1-4 . His OPS is down to about .900 now

[Squire]

Bohm slumping. Howard with a not great start.

[andyb]

Bohm 3-5 on Sunday. Average now .390 and it is a 7-game hitting streak so probably not much of a slump. Just not much power yet.

In other news, Jose Gomez showed up and went 1-4 at 2B. Given that organizations have position slots in the Arizona League, I think it is possible that Nick Maton was shut down for some reason, hopefully not a serious injury.

[Squire]

Bohm with his first AFL homer last night. Seabold with another really good start.

Seabold's fall league has been a much needed boost for me.

[andyb]

Dominican League started over the weekend with Canelo (1-3) and Grullon (2-4) both active in the first game. Remember this is the toughest of the foreign leagues now. Should be a good test for Grullon.

AFL all star game was Saturday. Bohm was the only Phillies participant and went 1-1 with a BB. Average now .327 overall with 1 HR and a .788 OPS. Good numbers though he has only drawn 2 BBs. Moniak now up to .208. Stephen down to .286.

Howard and Seabold were not in the All Star game though I would not read much into it as the Phillies might have wanted the pitchers to stay on their rotation and regular rest. The plan for Howard I think was for 5 total outings, so only 1 more before they shut him down.

Other winter leagues should be starting this week also.

[fish]

Howard still only at 86 total innings. I was hoping they'd get him up over 100- at this point getting him up to 120 innings next year might be asking a lot.

[andyb]

This article was the one that said 5 outings. 75 pitches each. Just assumed this eliminated the ASG. Howard pitched on the 10th so this means one more start this week. Season goes through the 26th, so maybe they'll reassess.

As for total innings I think 120 IP next year is still fine. Remember he is a bit older and did have more than 120 2 years ago including the playoffs. Now maybe they are cautious because that load might have given him problems this year, but he will turn 24 next year and if he can't handle the innings at that age he might be destined for the bullpen anyway. One of the things about him I did note was that we really don't know if his shoulder can handle the high 90s velocity long term. We were right to question that with Sixto, and there should be the same questions with Howard.

Top Phillies pitching prospect Spencer Howard set to take the mound again

[Austinfan]

Howard will remain a starter until he shows he can't start 25-30 games a year.
His stuff is starter stuff, 4 pitch pitcher, not just a hard thrower.

[andyb]

Howard will remain a starter until he shows he can't start 25-30 games a year.
His stuff is starter stuff, 4 pitch pitcher, not just a hard thrower.

He has not shown he can throw much more than 100 innings before getting hurt. Of course the priority is always to make a pitcher with good stuff a starter. He just has not shown he can handle the increased velocity yet. His stuff is really not better than guys like Velasquez at that stage in their career also. He has a plus plus fastball. Decent slider. Everything else is still developing though.

There is a good chance everything clicks and he becomes a number two starter. There is probably an equally good chance he ends up in the bullpen (where backing down to 2 pitches could make him a top closer).

[Squire]

Keith Law on Spencer Howard:

Spencer Howard (Phillies) missed several months this season because of a tired shoulder, but he has pitched at a high level since his return, and his AFL outing on Thursday was the best I’ve seen so far from my preseason No. 52 prospect. Howard’s velocity sat at 96 mph in the first inning and held 94-98 into the fifth. He worked up effectively with the pitch, and showed a legitimate four-pitch mix with a tight two-plane curveball at 76-78 mph, above-average slider at 83-88, and fringe-average changeup at 81-84 that showed some power fade at times. He can overthrow the slider, and in the fifth inning his command started to slip enough that he came out of the game. He cuts himself off just a little bit when he lands, enough that getting to his glove side requires effort, but he still works to both sides of the plate. If healthy he’s a No. 2 starter, and he’s just about ready to help.

[andyb]

Good that he likes the curve more. Health is still the major question though and he really needs to show that he can throw starter level innings at high velocity and stay healthy. He has improved as a prospect to the point where he is close to Sixto (still behind a bit because of the command and age/level). But one always likes to have more top pitching prospects as half of them get hurt. Medina's stuff backed up this year and Romero's is very inconsistent. I might venture that Francisco Morales might be our second best pitching prospect these days if we are lowering the ceiling estimates on Medina and Romero. And he is just a huge risk of staying healthy and, of course, staying a starter as his stuff is even fringier beyond the fastball so far.

[Austinfan]

Age doesn't apply to Howard, he didn't start until his JR season in college, so he's a couple years behind development wise relative to his peers. He's still building arm strength so it remains to be seen how durable/stamina will turn out.

[andyb]

So age as a criteria just should be ignored for anyone you like? It is not the most relevant aspect of analyzing Howard but it is part of how he should be evaluated. He is also not "building arm strength" in a different way than any other pitcher his age. He is learning his mechanics and figuring out if his body can handle the workload. He is a huge injury risk just like any other pitcher that throws 95+ and to deny that is to just ignore reality.

[andyb]

Looks like the Phillies have changed their plans a bit on Howard this winter. He was added to the Olympic Qualifier roster with Bohm and now apparently Seabold. Tournament is Nov 2-17 so I imagine the Phillies expect him to get a couple more starts down there:

https://premier12.wbsc.org/en/2019/teams-and-rosters

Top prospects highlight USA's Premier12 roster

Some old friends hanging around the other rosters. Jesmuel Valentin for Puerto Rico. Tim Kennelly and Josh Tols for Australia. And even Scott Mathieson for Canada. Mathieson has been in Japan since 2012. Was really good till 2018, so a return to the majors as a reliever is probably out of the question now. Games are in Guadalajara, Mexico, so maybe some TV on MLB network or ESPN+ is a possibility.

Girardi was originally supposed to manage the team. Now listed as Scott Brosius though.

[schillingfan]

Scott Mathieson was once my favorite pitching prospect. Pitching prospects - they break your heart.

[Squire]

Bohm heating up again in AFL. OPS up to .923

[Florida_Sunshine]

Bohm may be a keeper....

[julio]

Bohm may be a keeper....

Ya think?

But what about his defense? And do we think he'll really be able to hit lefties?

(Oh, wait. Those were board concerns about some other guy... what was his name?)