2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[andyb]

I guess if you are not going to pay for quality, you might as well have quantity. I am sure on sum they will find a couple of contributors who might give them a good month or two. Not sure I see any real contributors though other than depth. Guerra is a better bet than Hammer for instance. He is just not likely to be better than mediocre.

[bkeich]

Seems early to give up on Hammer. He was having a (surprisingly) good season in the minors, was forced to the majors and got a little rocked (but looked good at times). Don’t know much about who we got but it would be a shame to lose Hammer if can continue the success he was having in AAA this year.

[allentown]

Yes, he is a guy I thought had an MLB future, very possibly this season.

[zambonir]

Hammer did not have any success in AAA. He did well in Reading and had his moments with the Phillies but once he went to Lehigh seemed absolutely cooked. (12.64 ERA and 2.2.34 WHIP in 15 innings, and you can't say it was the ball).

I hoped he'd come back as well because he really did have his moments in MLB despite not being ready, but maybe they decided what they saw in Lehigh was definitive. By all rights he should have gone down there and been ready to return to Philly in September, but no. He was also a bit of a flake IIRC, not that that should be disqualifying for a reliever.

With those numbers perhaps they secretly expect him to be in surgery sooner than later. He may not get claimed, who knows.

[andyb]

With all the pitcher injuries and 26-man major league roster, it is probably time to consider something like a 42-man roster. I know getting waived enhances the chances of a player landing on another roster where there is more opportunity, but it just seems all we are getting is musical chairs among AAAA players that land them on 4 different teams within a few months without a serious chance of the big leagues.

A slightly larger 40-man roster, perhaps coupled with higher salaries (maybe half the major league minimum) might provide a bit more stability for these journeymen players.

[zambonir]

Except in the Phillies case they probably don't want to pay two extra salaries right now, even if it was half the major league minimum. As it is I think they are going to have to cut loose some guys to accomodate the minor league contract guys who will actually be making (very low) seven figures (and/or incentives) if they make the big league roster.

Union would certainly not mind more players one assumes, but it seems like all this motion is really a by-product of the analytic front offices, who are always willing to ditch a guy for a 1% upgrade or 2% savings.

[andyb]

Well it wouldn't be 2 more salaries now, and in my mind it would be all 15-17 guys on the 40 making maybe $300K instead of $150K. Teams get more stability. Players get more money and less moving around. The luxury tax will probably just $10-$15 million in the next CBA anyway. I am guessing the Phillies would be happy to have a larger roster to play with, especially since Klentak likes to rotate relievers so much.

[tom81]

Phillies To Sign Tommy Hunter

[zambonir]

Seems unlikely it's a major league deal, unless he took a really cheap one (which would help them out more than if one of the minor league guys has seven figures plus incentives).

I hope he's got something left, it was an unexpectedly protracted and yet not major injury. He's not yet ancient. Was pretty good for us in 2018 and great for Tampa in 2017. Also does decently against hitters from both sides of the plate, and can straddle innings (or could in 2018 anyway).

[andyb]

This is encouraging to me too. It did not seem a career threatening injury and he had decent stuff when he pitched. The Phillies should also know more about his medicals than anyone else.

[rpmcmurphy]

I actually like this throw-it-against-the wall-and-see-what-sticks approach the Phillies are taking this off season.

Luck is such a huge factor in the success and failure of sports franchises (and in life in general). We need our injury luck to revert to the mean, and one of Spencer Howard or Bohm needs to make a big Ryan Howard-like big league debut.

Could happen. Might not, but certainly could. If so, then we are definitely in the WC hunt, if not the division crown, without exceeding the luxury tax. Then, maybe a trade deadline deal.

I am feeling optimistic right now. Maybe it’s because pitchers and catchers report in two days!

[zambonir]

It's definitely the right approach for relievers. A Hunter or Liriano in 2020 for cheap makes more sense than paying anyone $10 million.

We need to stay in the WC hunt without those guys (especially Howard who can't come up too early or he might not even be available for September). But they will. Heck, they were in first place on June 1 each of the last two seasons.

[Austinfan]

You pay for a durable closer or setup man, but fill out the rest of the pen on the cheap.

[Philsmania]

It's always possible that Robertson could make a quick recovery and be a free stretch drive acquisition.

[zambonir]

For sure. I figured September but sounds like there's a chance it could be sooner if he's already throwing. I feel like there's a good chance he'll be on the Phillies in 2021 too (mutual new one-year contract instead of the option). But first we gotta see what he looks like post-injury/what he's got left.

[andyb]

Let's not represent what the Phillies as different than virtually every team in baseball. Everyone brings in a dozen extra arms since they know they'll need 12-15 throughout the year. This is rational and cost-effective, but it is also not the same as building a quality bullpen. I still feel we have a below-average bullpen starting with the closer and immediate setup men. The pitchers we have in those roles are simply below average compared to other good teams. Quantity is important (and quantity should be inexpensive). But quality is important too.

[zambonir]

I think this is an unusually large and pedigreed group compared to past years, at every tier (the minor league invites, the internal minor leaguers who might help in-season, the fringe guys on the 40 who might get a spot). Last year, with four of eight guys making 7-8 figures plus Neris and Morgan and Alvarez and Arano, we did not have big-name (if washed-up) NRIs or extra pieces from outside the organization added to the 40.

Sure, I would rather they pay the luxury tax for one more guy, but they have quality, affordable, controllable arms - if they are healthy and effective. Last year they had quality, expensive arms - if they had been healthy and effective. I wouldn't want to swap the former the latter. There's still only so many spots on the roster.

If Neris, Seranthony/Morgan (8th), Alvarez/Velasquez (7th), Arano/Suarez (middle), 8th guy TBD isn't a good bullpen, which of the above players would you give up on? My only answer would be Velasquez, if you'd rather get a proven reliever than a converted starter (or Pivetta, if he's the guy not starting). The available free agents weren't that robust. What happened to us (and the Nats) last year could have easily happened again.

[andyb]

The number of pitching spots not locked down is a bit larger than last year, but that is more a sign of lack of quality at the top. We still had a number of non-roster invites and also played musical chairs on the 40-man throughout the winter (remember James Pazos).

So this year's strategy is a bit more, but it is out of necessity because we won't spend money for anything better. This does not mean the bullpen will be any good. To me that depends more on guys like Morgan and Dominguez performing well than these formerly good players that come for free. If Hector Neris is our best reliever (career FIP of 3.80, 3.83 last year) we are probably in trouble. Hector is a decent reliever, but most good teams have a couple relievers better than he is.

[andyb]

If Neris, Seranthony/Morgan (8th), Alvarez/Velasquez (7th), Arano/Suarez (middle), 8th guy TBD isn't a good bullpen, which of the above players would you give up on?

That is the wrong question. I'd sign a top reliever and push them all back in the pecking order. Make them compete to be the 5th reliever in the bullpen as opposed to the 2nd.

[zambonir]

I think you'd still have to get rid of someone who was out of options, especially if you want to keep that 8th spot open for guys who aren't.

Obviously I'd gladly swap Adam Morgan or Victor Arano for Ken Giles (just an example); just not sure I would for Will Harris or Daniel Hudson. And even then your Giles type can still crash (as Giles himself has, or Edwin Diaz) or get injured.

I just don't think it's very important - bullpen will be good enough if rotation and offense is good enough, and can easily be upgraded. If rotation or offense isn't good enough, bullpen won't matter. Our division rivals all had pretty bad bullpens last year (only the Braves were ahead of us) and I think ours can be good, and better than good if a few gambles (the converted starter, one of the NRIs) pay off.