2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

bkeich 2020-01-23 20:20:55 UTC #1103

I think there is still a value to a LOOGY. You will still need a left handed guy that is more likely to get someone out, and keep in mind the 3 batter rule is actually just until the end of the inning. It could be 1 or 2 batters just as likely as 3.

We will probably see some left handed specialists if Harper bats 4th. If there are 2 our of course it is a LOOGY, but the same kind of guy (left handed specialist) could be out there fairly often against us.

I cant wait to see the first manager who has a lefty who suddenly gets hurt after he gets his left handed hitter out. You know someone is going to try it....

andyb 2020-01-23 20:25:37 UTC #1104

Lefties probably need to be a little more well rounded in the future, but if a Neshek can exist, so can a LOOGY.

BTW Liriano presents the very real possibility of having 4 LHP in the bullpen. Since our rotation at present is likely to be all right-handed, more lefties are useful.

Morgan and Alvarez are the short men as of now. Suarez, Liriano, and Irvin are all in the mix for longer outings.

zambonir 2020-01-23 20:56:13 UTC #1105

Girardi has apparently been talking up Suarez as a possible starter. I'm assuming Irvin might still just start in AAA (which wouldn't rule him out for long relief).

For all the talk about this bullpen not being great, there aren't that many open jobs, assuming the injured guys are on track

Neris/Alvarez - locks
Morgan/Dominguez - locks if healthy
One of Pivetta/Velasquez
Suarez

That leaves just two spots for Arano (who I think might start on the 60?), one of the new additions to the 40 and one of the minor league invites. Presumably Kelly and Liriano - I believe Kelly can't be optioned while Stock can. I also bet Liriano has an opt-out while Norris and Storen might not (just a retention bonus).

I don't really see Garcia, Hammer or Davis starting the year in MLB, and probably not Irvin either.

All subject to change with injuries or Suarez making the rotation. But I do not think this is a bad bullpen. It could be a little better but it is really all about the injuries. With a normal amount of injuries and better luck than last year we won't be seeing any kids who aren't ready or waiver-wire dreck.

Austinfan 2020-01-24 02:29:29 UTC #1106

Brogdon probably has the inside track of the potential young RPs.
Garcia also has a good shot, he had ML stuff, just wasn't ready last season.

zambonir 2020-01-24 04:17:23 UTC #1107

I'm sure we'll see them, I just don't know that we'll see them in April. Depending on the # of injuries, releases or even a trade.

It's a potentially deep bulllpen, it's just pyramid-shaped. For now.

gmwannabe 2020-01-25 13:42:42 UTC #1108

pivetta is training with Synde and flaherty. hope it helps, i'm not out on him yet.
gm

zambonir 2020-01-26 03:26:02 UTC #1109

I agree with this. I feel like we have enough data on Velasquez. Maybe he's a fifth starter, maybe he's a tandem starter, maybe he's a reliever. Pivetta still has the higher ceiling (and lower floor).

I think it's interesting Suarez's name has started to come up too. If they want to give him a serious shot at starting (they certainly don't lack for lefty relievers) that also opens up the possibility of VV and Pivetta both in the pen, or trading one for a reliever (though Pivetta could also go to AAA as the 6th starter).

bigegypt0417 2020-01-27 16:59:01 UTC #1110

VV's ceiling is higher than Pivetta IMO.

I think his ceiling is that of a high leverage reliever...I'm not sure he'll ever live up to that but an arm like that could certainly be effective as a closer.

andyb 2020-01-27 17:02:10 UTC #1111

Lots more words than one could have hoped for about our recent minor league signings. Some encouraging notes about each signing, even Storen.

zambonir 2020-01-27 17:54:07 UTC #1112

I guess I still think Pivetta's ceiling is #2 starter. That might be a pipe dream at this point, and it might not happen while he's on the Phillies either, but he still has that Schilling/Keuchel late-bloomer/put-it-together potential. This article (which GM referenced) specifically compares him to Giolito

Anyway, even if Pivetta's ceiling is #4 starter I don't see that as a lower ceiling than high-leverage reliever. If he's just a fringe #5 who can't stick, sure - but he could be a high-leverage reliever himself.

andyb 2020-01-30 17:39:11 UTC #1113

ESPN ranks the Phillies' lineup 16th out of 30:

allentown 2020-01-30 18:11:10 UTC #1114

Then, our only chance is if our position players imrprove more over last season than ESPN expects. I do not expect our pitching staff to be able to carry a below-average lineup to the post-season. I think it is still reasonable to expect that our lineup will not be below average.

flyers19rw 2020-01-30 21:56:59 UTC #1115

Fangraphs projections for the Phillies is the middle of the pack in WAR-36.3 (Bat-21.2; Pitch-15.1) That's fourth in the division behind the Mets, Nats and Braves. There aren't any real surprises with the individual projections. JT(4.2); Hoskins (3.0); Segura (2.1); Didi (2.2); Kingery (.8) Cutch (2.1) Hasely (.9) Bryce (4.4) Bruce (.2) Quinn (.1) No other position player had any value but Bohm had (.5) if/when called up to play 3B. Nola (4.1) Wheeler (3.3) Arrieta (1.6) Eflin (1.0) VV (1.1) Pivetta (.9) Neris (.9) Alvarez (.4) Morgan (.3) Dominguez (.5) Arano (.1) Penvetta (.2) Liriano (.1) no other pitcher had any value.
Its sort of depressing. Hard to see where more WAR can be squeezed into reality. The pitching is weak. Good luck for Price with that. Maybe Howard can get 2 WAR? Still its a 4th place club as it is composed today.

zambonir 2020-01-30 22:28:31 UTC #1116

I would have assumed the projections were lower to put us in fourth place. Unfortunately most of those seem reasonable to me. Maybe even generous. It's possible Segura, Didi, Kingery, Cutch and Haseley are good for an additional 4 to 6 WAR between them. Harper could have a bigger year. Bruce and Quinn will probably be better if they play enough (big if).

Honestly that starting rotation is probably good enough. Most teams don't have 2.0 WAR 4th and 5th starters (especially not before the deadline). And the relief projections are low if those guys are healthy (and that's also probably why they're low).

The pitching falls apart if Arrieta and Eflin are worse than that. The offense falls apart if Didi and Cutch and Hoskins are worse than that.

flyers19rw 2020-01-30 23:07:04 UTC #1117

IMO, this is where the season will be decided. I have a feeling that Price can get Eflin to be a good #3 behind Nola and Wheeler. Perhaps Arrieta Can get It together well enough at four. Howard at five in July? The IF is full of question marks.

baseballoldie 2020-01-30 23:22:22 UTC #1118

Have Fangraphs projections ever been to proven to be right? I wonder what their scorecard is like for the projections. The Phillies have players that can easily surpass the Fangraphs projections and I would not be surprised to see Harper and Nola significantly exceed their projection. The beauty of baseball is that anything is possible and every year is a reason for optimism. There is a lot to look forward to in 2020 for this team.

Austinfan 2020-01-30 23:34:28 UTC #1119

I would be suprrised if Kingery and Haseley don't play above those projections.

Last year (FG)
Kingery 2.7 WAR
Haseley 0.9 WAR (in 67 games)
Eflin 1.5 WAR
Arrieta 1.1 WAR

zambonir 2020-01-31 00:06:19 UTC #1120

Obviously projections are not ultimately predictive. Right now Kingery's is based on limited playing time as much as his struggles in the second half - that he'll be a 3B and then a bench player. In reality if he gets 500 ABs and hits okay he's a 2-3 WAR player again. If Haseley is a decent everyday player he's bound to put up 2.0; if he's not, matching last year (either because he plays worse or doesn't play that much more) makes sense.

It's a two-way street. Last year Hoskins was projected to be 3.5 (he was 1.5). Segura was supposed to be 2.5 (he was 1.3). They still had Herrera putting up >2.0 WAR. Even Franco was 1.3 (-0.8). It's easy to see where they could get 5-6 more WAR than projected. It's also easy to see where they could get less.

No matter what you think, their chance of winning the NL East turns on a solid 75% of the roster meeting or exceeding expections, and nobody falling short. That's a lot to ask. Which is why everyone (from pundits to computers to gamblers) figure they are playing for the wild card (and 86-88 wins) until proven otherwise.

BostonRoss 2020-01-31 02:12:49 UTC #1121

I would take the under on 86 wins.

allentown 2020-01-31 03:54:55 UTC #1122

I agree that O.8 WAR seems low by about 2 WAR on Kingery. Don't see others whom I'd jump to add obvious WAR to. Always possible Harper over 5 WAR.