2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[zambonir]

Relievers aren't really that expensive at the trade deadline though. Even the best ones are usually getting paid too well which drives down the price. Didn't you (Andy) repeatedly say that the Phillies could and should have acquired 2-3 better relievers last deadline instead of settling for the waiver/AAAA guys they got for nothing? If we go after a Ken Giles type it will probably be worth it, and if not half the guys who have signed in the past month could also be available (or similar caliber guys will). Best option IMO is still to see what we've got, and see/hope that there's another Giles/Seranthony who has yet to emerge.

Robertson won't and doesn't need to be released, he'll just go on the 60-day when the season starts. He may also be able to pitch again this year. Davis I still figure is gone.

I would still bring back Tommy Hunter. Hughes too, if they think what was wrong with him in 2019 could be fixed. Price knows him too.

I still would have considered trading Segura but a position player is worth more than a reliever, and who knows if there was any market for him. Now it's moot because there aren't any good enough relievers left to get (unless that was also a trade.

[andyb]

Didn't you (Andy) repeatedly say that the Phillies could and should have acquired 2-3 better relievers last deadline instead of settling for the waiver/AAAA guys they got for nothing?

Yes, but that was in the vein of wasted resources last season. We had something like $12 million under the luxury tax threshold that we did not use. We could have acquired better relievers if we had used that room.

This year we do not have that room so the choice is prospects versus going over the threshold. It will probably cost both for anything good. None of this addresses the top of the bullpen. Neris is a poor top reliever. Career FIP of 3.80 and the last 3 years have been 3.71, 4.04, and 3.83. The ERA varies when balls leave the park. And his high K rate makes him more effective than his FIP. Just not much more effective.

[zambonir]

I do wish they were going over the tax and I also wish they weren't paying Arrieta (a $15 million third starter would suffice) and Segura, but so long as they are, I don't think devoting a lot of payroll to relievers is the way to go.

It is going to be as much a philosophical test as anything - last year they and a lot of teams bought into the idea that you needed high-leverage bullpen arms and nearly every team besides the Yankees got burned. This year it's back to believing in fungibility and variance and "a good reliever is a failed starter." They are also putting all their chips on Girardi and Price to get better results and health (some here - I'm not one of them - think Kapler and Young can be blamed for that).

There weren't really any relievers on the market plainly better than Neris anyway, except the guy with a QO. We really need Seranthony to turn into another Robertson (as he appeared to be his rookie year) since we can't pay for another Robertson.

[David_Criss]

Top 2 articles on MLBtraderumors.com is on Marte and Areando respectively, possibly being shopped. The Martels article mentions the Phillies saying if they are to contend they need an upgrade at 3B and CF. Everyone knows this.

[andyb]

I think that is highly dependent on Bohm. If the Phillies feel good about Bohm, I'm not sure they need an upgrade because that might free Kingery to be in the CF mix.

I feel better about Bohm being a plus bat than either Haseley or even Kingery (who has defensive value everywhere however).

Pitching is still an area better suited for upgrades than position players simply because we really need Bohm to be a low cost, long time contributor. Injuries could change things of course, but I can't see much logic to go for Marte now.

[zambonir]

Plus we'd have to trade Bohm or Haseley in one or the other deal. Possibly both. Haseley less of a loss but Marte also less of an upgrade.

Middleton's philosophy about the luxury tax is actually far more applicable to adding an Arenado, especially in a trade. This team is not actually close enough to championship-caliber to make that kind of give-up-the-future and add another giant salary move. With or without the tax they have money to continue upgrading the roster in 2021 and 2022 but if these kids are traded or don't pan out (and you can add Kingery and Hoskins to that list) we're looking at either a really dark future or a whole lot of tax-paying.

The rebuild failed last year; they were supposed to at least win 86 games and make an actual run at the postseason. That being the case, is it realistic to still have the same expectation for this season (that they'd build on that and actually win a playoff series)? I it can happen, because injuries were huge, they made some upgrades, and maybe the new staff will help, but I wouldn't put the whole future on it. This line-up should still be good enough to stay in the battle longer than last year and as long as the year before, except they'll be aggressive about making real upgrades too. If it isn't, they'll have problems this season (and in 2021) that even an Arenado wouldn't fix.

[Austinfan]

The Angels are a good example of a team that spent a lot of money, and even got a superstar late in the 1st round, all for naught.

You have to build a solid team, and that means a core of young, affordable players, then use FA money to improve on the margin.

The advantage of big money teams is not buying free agents, but signing top talent developed in house instead of letting it leave in free agency.

If Bohm, Haseley and Howard don't step up the next couple years, no free agent can save this franchise, and trades are worse, giving up a lot of your future AND paying top dollar to keep the players you've traded for.

[Squire]

Phillies sign RHP Drew Storen to a minor league contract and camp invite. Gets 750K if he makes the major league roster

[andyb]

TJ surgery at the end of 2017. Out all of 2018 and most of 2019. Probably not the worst minor league contract gamble if he has recovered some of his stuff after the surgery.

[phillychuck]

That is a complete trash signing. He's been worse than replacement level since 2016, before his TJ. The team is better with him on one of our competitors' teams. This is a real long-shot gamble.

[flyers19rw]

I think that is highly dependent on Bohm. If the Phillies feel good about Bohm, I'm not sure they need an upgrade because that might free Kingery to be in the CF mix.

IMO, Bohm will prove to be adequate at 3B, especially with a SS that can pick it to the left of him. He won't be a Schmidt or Rolen but we've seen worse at the position (Don Demeter?). If Bohm can hit with some power, that will more than cover for any defensive deficiencies that he might have. Having Bohm at 3B and moving Kingery over to 2B gives the Phillies options to move Segura to a team that needs a proven person at that position. (Red Sox?) From what Hasely has shown in CF and with Quinn behind him, there's no reason to throw Kingery into the CF mix.

[allentown]

I agree with this. The Phillies need to trust Kingery, Haseley, Bohm, and Spencer Howard. With the lux tax, there really is not other way to control the budget and build a winning team. This year they are at least starting internally to build the BP. That is a decision born of necessity, since if they stay below the lux cap they are out of $. It also really isn't a bad way to try to go. They hit it very lucky with Lidge, but haven't done super well acquiring expensive relievers since then.

The 1993 Phillies did extremely well by employing OF platoons. Expansion of the roster to 26, with a limit on numbers of pitchers, would seem to make the 1993 Phillies platoon approach the leading edge 'value' approach of today. It doesn't seem like today's Phillies have jumped all over that strategy. Some other team will.

[Taudawg]

Phillies Sign Bud Norris

[bkeich]

Hard to really know what to think of these 2 signings. At least it is something, but it seems like we are trying to sign a 2015 bullpen.

If both are in AAA trying to see if they can restart there careers I dont see much downside (as they arent taking innings away from prospects since we really dont have too many). If they come to Philly at the start of the season we are probably going to be guilty of dreaming that they are ready, but we will see in Spring Training.

Worth a shot when we dont have any money to spend on the bullpen, but not sure it is exactly going to help.

[zambonir]

These are what fringe minor league signings look like. Nothing new about them. No different from when we signed Andrew Bailey and Edward Mujica. They probably won't work out, but you never know (and they also might work out for another team later, it happens).

Braves signed King Felix, I don't think we need him competing with Pivetta and Velasquez for a rotation spot either.

Funny we got Storen after all the Papelbon stuff.

[andyb]

These 2 signings are nearly no cost minor league depth, theoretically signing strike throwers who know how to pitch. If they stick it might even be in extended spring, waiting for some injury spots to open up in AAA or AA.

No reason not to do these types of signings. No reason to expect much. I'd rather go get Nick Vincent again too. None of this solves the quality problem in the bullpen though. We are just adding depth in case guys like Hammer and Brogdon are not ready to be the first replacements.

[allentown]

They are good signings. We didn't sign any big $ relievers this year and haven't made our own yet, so we need to have a wide casting call for guys who might have a chance. They'll mostly all be used at some point if past seasons repeat. The Phillies like to jockey guys back and forth from AAA and we should expect several injuries -- three injuries would be a decided improvement.

[Austinfan]

Cheap depth is always good, and sometimes you get lucky.

[zambonir]

Pretty funny because Liriano in past years was essentially the poster boy for this kind of thing. If he can pitch he gets a nice chunk of the remaining CBT space.

Robert Murray on Twitter

[Squire]

Phillies sign INF Neil Walker to a minor league deal