2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[BostonRoss]

I don’t see them spending much at the deadline because I don’t think they’ll be close enough to justify it.

[California_Dreamin]

Two observations here...one, I don't believe for a moment believe that Middleton is unwilling to go into the luxury tax area, just don't believe it. What I do believe is that Klentak has a mandate NOT to go into the luxury tax without Middleton being involved [aka, his negotiations with Boras on a client like Rendon.] There is a difference here. And I also believe the Phils are simply playing coy, like they always do. Middleton learned after his "stupid money" comments last year that it doesn't pay to let agents you have money to burn.

Two...I wish the Phillies would begin to use a technique the Giants used yesterday to get prospects they like but couldn't draft. The Giants took on the contract of Zack Cosart [12.5 million] to acquire infielder Wil Wilson, simply the 15th player drafted in last June's draft. The Giants were motivated to do this deal because they loved Wilson and almost selected him with the 10th pick in the first round and the Angels were motivated to move Cozart for financial reasons.

I found this to be a semi brilliant move, one that the Phils have the financial resources to make. Look for more teams to do this sort of stuff in the future, a way around the glacial rule that teams cannot trade draft picks. It sure is a good way to rebuild a pharm system.

[andyb]

We are kind of already up against the luxury tax threshold even though we are $4 million below. DL moves during the season will bring in more players who are paid more than the 40-man roster players in the luxury tax accounting.

[zambonir]

As things currently stand there's no utility in saying they won't exceed the tax, whether to an agent's face or in the media. They can't afford anyone (prominent) and agents aren't fooled by such posturing. Sure, maybe in three weeks, if Keuchel is still sitting there or Donaldson hasn't signed they could start lowballing, and they can say "we really can't exceed the tax but if we do it the deal has to be shorter" or something like that. Or steal a $10 million pitcher for $5 million. I

If anything, this message is for the fans, and it's been consistent. Middleton in October - we'll only do it if we' close to a championship and can get a Lee or Halladay. The team now - we won't do it. In the end, it's all noise, they either do it (even if it's with a trade rather than a FA) or they don't.

CD's not wrong, history says that Middleton eventually comes in and the do a big deal. It's just too soon for that. But surely Middleton sees what we do. In theory his belief is that a new manager makes a roster that was good enough last year live up to its potential. In practice it's an insane amount of best-case scenarios with even less upside in 2021 (though there will be more money then).

It will be tempting to let Herrera play, since he's part of the tax problem. Still not sure they will though. If 29 teams really want nothing to do with him that's about more than just his now-questionable ability.

[saycheese]

I will take Middleton as his word that he is not inclined to go over the luxury tax. The thing is they could get creative and say deal Arrieta or Segura pay some of their contracts and realize a net savings. Now that could open up other holes but.... They could deal off some of the smaller arbitration contracts like Vinny V.

I can't believe that Wheeler and Didi and bringing in Girardi are the only moves they make this offseason. Now I think they are closer to a 90 win team now but they need to be more like a 95 win team.

All that said the easiest thing is to go over for this year. They could easily reset next year as contracts for Robertson, Arrieta, and Didi come off the books in fact Cots has them right now at 91 million under. Now that also doesn't have a new contract for Realmuto in it.

[zambonir]

I suppose it's not out of the question that they are done. If Arrieta is okay and Price is able to do good work, a rotation with Eflin as your #4 and the Pivetta we hoped we had in 2018 is certainly enough to get you to July. Heck, it was enough to get them to June 15 last year without Wheeler. They also did fine in the first half of 2017 (with Lively giving way to Eflin).

And I'm sure they're not done hunting around the margins for a reliever, 5th starter depth and bench. I agree it does seem crazy not to go over given the short-term window and how easy it would be to get back under. Trading Segura (to say nothing of Arrieta) is riskier unless you're using the money on superior replacements.

[allentown]

I want no part of Price and we can't afford him anyway. I think we are seeing a knee jerk reaction to rid ourselves of Segura and Arrietta after one bad year. Selling low, as we did with Santana. If that's the yard stick, then Gregorius had a really bad 2019. Mindless churning isn't going to move us forward. And yes, I realize you are not necessarily in favor of trading Segura and Arrietta.

I'm sure we'll audition quite a few reliever possibilities. We should be looking now for guys who don't have to be on the 40-man and can vie for a job in ST or start in minors with an 'up or out' promise for, let's say, June 1st. Same with guys who have a chance to be a #5 starter.

I don't think we can afford to sign marginal FAs to guaranteed contracts and give them 40-man spots. Perhaps one guy..

[Lawman]

He'll probably start out in AAA. Not a bad insurance option to have.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

I want no part of Price and we can't afford him anyway.

I think the previous post was in reference to Bryan Price, our new pitching coach, and the work he might do with the staff.

[zambonir]

Yes. Party line (at CBP and mostly on this board) is Chris Young sucked. If that's true, we know Pivetta and VV have talent (never mind that, IMO, Kranitz didn't do any better with them overall, other than the fact that they were younger and had good FIP. Neither did McClure, and Kranitz was his assistant. As Young was Kranitz's).

Given the salary constraints (Roark just signed for two years $24 million) either of them could be just as good as any veteran we sign for $4 million (which is also what VV already makes).

To me Pivetta is the big X factor. Either trade him, use him, or make him your 6th starter in AAA. VV you either trade, start or permanently convert.

I still think they release Odubel, but the luxury tax situation does put them up against it. Really, at this point they should pay a team to take him, i.e. throw in a prospect, pay half his salary, and you get $3 million to play with for the next two years. See if another team will loosen their moral stand on those terms.

Otherwise, if they keep him and he's in ST, and they weather the storm of that, he will probably hit .400, and Quinn will get hurt, and he makes the team.

Atown, kind of funny that you are taking up for Segura and saying we sold low on Santana at the same time. I understand the argument but I still think it was a pretty fair trade given the $ (Santana was overpaid at the very least) and Crawford's declining stock.

[zambonir]

Sounds like Herrera is a goner as Phillies’ GM backs Haseley for starting CF job

“I expect that Adam Haseley's going to be our regular center fielder,” Klentak said on Day 3 of baseball’s winter meetings. “But having said that, I recognize that when Roman Quinn is healthy and playing to his potential, it's hard to take him out of the lineup. I think that combination of players likely takes down the majority of our center field reps this year.”

Klentak went on to say he expected Jay Bruce to be part of the club and “cover us on the corners,” as a backup to Andrew McCutchen and Bryce Harper as well as a bat off the bench.

That’s five outfielders and no Herrera.

Certainly still possible the Phillies keep him as an asset in AAA I guess but I'm not sure the cost-benefit is really there (the cost being the PR/bad messaging).

[xogfog]

Heyman is reporting that Porcello would prefer a one year prove it deal, the Phillies should consider that, even if you pay him 15 mil, he could come off the books next year along with Arrieta. Porcello figured out some things towards the end of last year and started moving the ball up and down which made his stuff play better. I'll take one year of Porcello over one more VV start.

[David_Criss]

Haseley is also the name consistent with the (possibly crazy) trade rumors in deals for Bryant and Marte. What better way to hype his value then knight him the starter. Herrera hadn't been good for a couple. of seasons prior to the DV. Perhaps he was comfortable knowing he was getting paid. He now has something to prove.

What I like about Herrera is that during the suspension and "trial" not once did we hear him say the charges were false or that she was lying. In my world anyone who hurts a women or a child needs to be castrated and sent to a deserted island to play last man survives, but it seems like he at least took responsibility and quietly accepted his punishment. IOW he wasn't Antonio Brown.

Often times we hear blame the victim from the athletes accused of these horrendous actions. Herrera has to prove he is still worthy of a Major League roster spot and that is why he will get a short leash chance in Spring Training before ay trade can be discussed. If they are going to get nothing for him, at least stash him at AAA and see if a team gets desperate since the Phillies will be paying him anyway.

[Lawman]

If they are going to get nothing for him, at least stash him at AAA and see if a team gets desperate since the Phillies will be paying him anyway.

This. Keep him in AAA, he's a good insurance option to have.

[Squire]

Porcello has a one-year deal with the NYMets

[flyers19rw]

Lose Wheeler and sign Porcello. Not a bad recovery by the Mets.

[bigegypt0417]

Lose Wheeler and sign Porcello. Not a bad recovery by the Mets.

Porcello has been bad for two years...not to say he might not bounce back but definitely a downgrade.

[ahb]

Obviously it's a big IF with Quinn staying healthy, but if he did, I don't hate a Quinn/Haseley platoon in CF

[andyb]

And we'll have an extra spot on the bench this year, so Quinn pinch-running could come into play more often since we'll have one more pinch hitter. A L/R platoon with Haseley and Quinn could be good, and they could also play Quinn a bit more in spacious road stadiums where more range would be useful.

[zambonir]

If Quinn can play that's great.

But David is also right - if in fact the Phillies are still open for business they will have to trade either Bohm or Haseley, and acting like both those guys are ready to start (and we're content with them) is the position you take. With Donaldson too (people still linking us to them but not sure I believe that either).

It is true that Herrera has been penitent compared to Chapman and Osuna. I still think the Phillies want to move on though. Everything Klentak has ever said about him is also designed to set the stage for releasing him. Truth be told, if his salary this year was arbitration instead of guaranteed, and he did not have the incident, he'd probably be no more tradeable than Franco or Hernandez.