2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[julio]

Not sure why julio put Morgan on his list, unless it turns out he needs surgery, but even then he has several controllable years left at a reasonable price. Could just as easily put the older and more expensive Alvarez on there.

Short answer is, I wasn't recommending that all those players be non-tendered - only that I would expect all those names would come up in a front-office discussion about who to non-tender. There may be others I neglected to include.

andyb - Morgan's service time entering 2019 was 3.017 years; he wasn't a super-2.

[zambonir]

Ok here's a question: would you bring Neshek back for a couple of million if he's interested? His buy-out is $750K, I'd fold that into new offer.

On the one hand, there's no reason to think he won't get hurt again. On the other, he has not pitched much the last two years and could easily have something left (though I doubt he'll ever return to his 2017 form).

The fundamental question here is, would that be any worse than taking a similar $2-3 million gamble on Morin, Parker, Hughes or Vincent?

[andyb]

I think Neshek might be done physically. I was more thinking Hunter had an injury that he could bounce back from because he was a little younger.

If both want to come back under incentive-laden deals then the risk is minimal. I assume you would wait till after the rule 5 draft if they needed a minor league roster spot. We know their medicals better than other teams, so I would assume the team would think it is a decent risk based on what they know.

If Morgan is 2nd year arbitration that might be more like $2.5 million. I would go that high if he is healthy.

We still are going to need one or two higher end bullpen acquisitions. Last year's bad luck means they won't get 3 guys for $25 million, but I could see 1 or 2 in the $5 to $10 million range if they have histories of durability.

[andyb]

I think you are reading way too much into what I said. It is not that they would actually sign a long term deal. It is that the team (not the player) would be motivated to offer one. Kingery's case is unique. So let's go to Hoskins. A year ago we all would have signed him for 5 years if the price were right. Hoskins would probably have asked for $100 million though so the price was not right. I have always worried about signing Hoskins long term personally because he would be older when he hit free agency and he is not the athlete that Goldschmidt is for example. I think his offensive problems are fixable but I am no longer sure he is a long term player.

So Hoskins went from part of the future to a question mark. Herrera is no longer part of the future. Velasquez and Pivetta look shaky and I'd only go year to year on Eflin. And Neris might be a candidate to blow his arm out with his splitter so is he really someone you would want to count on in 3 years?

Now add in Crawford and Williams and Alfaro as young players that no longer factor into the future.

It is just an old team once you have crossed off the young players. While we have 2 top 100 prospects who could factor in the next couple of years (Bohm and Howard), most teams have a couple. Haseley is still projected as a tweener so again nothing to count on.

Your post took my statement way too literally. The real intent was to point out that we have a mediocre young core. We have either traded it, seen them fail, buried them in the system, or let them play and be mediocre. Much of it is a function of the choices Klentak made unfortunately.

[bkeich]

I may be the biggest fan of Neshek here, but I doubt they even look at him. He has pitched exceptionally well for the Phillies and he is a great change of pace, and fun to watch, but I doubt he really can do it anymore. He has broken down physically I fear.

Someone might get a great bargain in him, but more likely he might have to take a minor league deal and camp invite. His stats are great, but having a low ERA reliever on your IL isn’t appealing to teams.

[LoneStarPhan]

They should offer minor league deals to some like Neshek with invite to spring training. Maybe Rodriguez and Gosselin would do this as well, depending on what else they can get.

[zambonir]

It's possible Neshek might have to settle for a minor league deal. One other thing against him is he didn't seem to care for being part of the New Age bullpen and I doubt that will change with a new manager.

Arrieta mouthed off about Santana yesterday, kind of randomly.

Phillies’ Jake Arrieta praises Gabe Kapler, but not Carlos Santana | Extra...

[andyb]

Phillies considering moving Segura off shortstop. Yes, it opens up a range of possibilities for the Phillies. Unfortunately none of those possibilities would make the Phillies a better team compared to the one where they thought Segura was a decent defensive shortstop. The Segura trade, already a pretty sure loser for the Phillies, could be looking like a disaster now.

Moving Jean Segura off shortstop would open up a range of...

[David_Criss]

Replacing Hernandez with Segura does nothing. They have almost identical offensive numbers and Segura costs $14.8 million where as Hernandez is most likely going to get in the $10 to $12 mil range in arbitration.

Hernandez Age 29 GP 161 H 171 2B 31 3B 3 HR 14 RBI 71 BA .279 OBP. .333 OPS .741
Segura Age 29 GP 144 H 161 2B 37 3B 4 HR 12 RBI 60 BA .280 OBP. .323 OPS .743

[Philsmania]

Was Segura really bad this season?

[EDmuch]

If the powers that be are wasting their time debating about Hernandez versus Segura rather than focusing upon the real challenges the team faces, that would suggest how clueless they are about the team's real needs.

[EDmuch]

P-i-t-c-h-i-n-g !!!!!

[bigegypt0417]

If the powers that be are wasting their time debating about Hernandez versus Segura rather than focusing upon the real challenges the team faces, that would suggest how clueless they are about the team's real needs.

Or how clueless a fan is for thinking teams can't multi-task or give different members of their staff different duties...

[andyb]

Was Segura really bad this season?

Bref dWAR of 0.0 after being 1.5 the year before. He had ranged from 0.4 to 1.1 in other years with most of his recent years other than last year at 0.4 or 0.5. Those are numbers of an average defensive SS and his range probably slipped a bit this year. He would be better than Cesar at 2B, but then you need a SS or you assume Kingery would be above average there which I am not sure is likely.

[Taudawg]

On the surface this doesn't make much sense, it makes sense to keep options open with Segura. He's as good defensively at 2B as SS. Andrelton Simmons and Marcus Semien are both a year away from free agency. If they could swing a trade for either, the Phillies would be strong defensively up the middle. Or the Phillies could sign a Jose Iglesias and accomplish the same thing. The would of course need to pick up offense somewhere else. Kingery takes over CF were he surprisingly grades out as solid. Lots of positional flexibility we know they like, and Haseley can spend the year as the fourth outfielder. Segura has a guaranteed contract and an unlikely trade candidate. Moving Segura to 2B makes a more sense than signing a 1B when you already have one.

[mdougherty12]

Segura gets a -1.2 UZR/150 for 2019, DRS was a little worse at -6/yr. I don't believe in single season defensive stats enough to be convinced that that's significantly different from the rest of his career. Segura has always rated right around average defensively.

[EDmuch]

Love you too, BE.

[andyb]

Though that article today was clearly some sort of trial balloon so internally they are thinking he may have declined a bit this year. It was hard to tell for me. I thought he was decent. There were times where he did a spin or took an extra step getting a throw off and a runner beat it, though it did not look like he lost anything on the throws themselves.

If Kingery is better at SS he should play SS. Just not sure the whole moving players around is making the Phillies significantly better. Maybe Segura is a plus defensive 2B, but then Kingery would be as well.

[zambonir]

The article also says he could play 3B. And claims the Phillies always expected to move him (but presumably not this soon. Well, unless they'd signed Machado maybe).

I wonder if this is more of a scoop than a trial balloon - but not a very big one, as they probably discuss things like this pretty routinely in the end-of-season meetings. Last year the story was that Santana could be the 3B. And I'm sure they've already discussed what the heck they plan to do with Herrera but nobody's gonna talk about that. Like a trade discussion, such a discussion may result in no action.

And of course these are also meetings that Kapler participated in.

Ed, do you think the Phillies don't need to make any major changes to the starting 8? Because that's what this suggests to me, so if anything, it's exactly what you want, that they are focused on pitching (though obviously it doesn't rule out them adding another infielder as part of the shuffle. If they move on from Hernandez and/or play Kingery in CF they'd still have to).

[andyb]

Don't we want Bohm to play 3B as soon as midseason? If the Phillies don't think of him as good enough defensively then it is LF or 1B and trading either Cutch or Hoskins in a year. That would not be a good net result either. I know they are all about flexibility, but one does that when you have platoon situations or are trying to work good bats in the lineup where you don't have them. Theoretically we should have them in LF or 1B. Segura's bat would be relatively weak for 3B.