2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[flyers19rw]

I’d be in on that.

[zambonir]

Well, that's certainly the answer to trading Segura (or moving him).

[fish]

Rumor of the day has the Phillies going after Gregorius and Bumgarner.

I’m not hot in committing Kingery to centerfield, but I could get over it if it meant Gregorius at short and Seguera at second. I think Gregoriius is as good a bet for a rebound on a discount as there is out there.

[zambonir]

The story (which is just going off Morosi's tweet) says they could also put Segura at 3B, which The Athletic also reported. But I think you only do this if you're able to either offload Segura or plan to sign a 3B too, with Segura at 2B.

If so, I'm okay with Kingery as half-CF, half-super utility guy, plus Haseley.

But it could also mean Kingery at 3B - if they give Gregorius three years and decent $ but non-tender Hernandez can they still afford Moustakas? Depends on the market I guess. I don't reckon Gregorius gets a huge discount on a one-year deal (unless that's what he wants, to go back into free agency. But since he has no QO now and plays SS his value should be pretty high despite the dip).

While I'm a tad skeptical about some of our players actually improving going forward, you do have to hope the new manager/hitting coach does lead to that. Segura, Cesar and even Gregorious are on the wrong side of their peak without actually being old, any of them could have a big year.

[Austinfan]

If Segura has the arm to play SS, either he or Gregorius should have no problem moving to 3B, where big SSs with power go to die.

That frees Kingery to play 2B or CF, with Hernandez as a switch hitter, suddenly you have lots of lineup flexibility.

And this buys time for Bohm and Stott to develop (Hernandez buys a season for Bohm, Gregorious 2-3 years for Stott).

[David_Criss]

Is signing Gregorius that much of an upgrade over (I'll dare say it) Franco? Both have pretty anemic obp. averages with some pop......I'll dare say this, too. I think Hernandez is the better player over Segura and will be cheaper. Signing Gregorius would shore up SS, but if they trade Segura instead of moving him to 3B that doesn't solve anything - the team will still need a 3B.

Yesterday we heard or read the Phillies were looking to trade Segura in a package for Bryant. Now if the infield next year is Bryant, Gregorius, Kingery I am a lot more excited than just moving Segura to 3B

[Austinfan]

Segura at 3B would be big defensive upgrade over Franco, and almost anyone is an offensive upgrade over last season's Franco.
Gregorius would be about depth as much as SS, it gives you more options in the IF and CF.

[julio]

I'll dare say this, too. I think Hernandez is the better player over Segura and will be cheaper. Signing Gregorius would shore up SS, but if they trade Segura instead of moving him to 3B that doesn't solve anything - the team will still need a 3B.

The three of 'em are essentially the same age - played at 29 in 2019, will play at 30 in 2020. All three of them are showing decline from their peak OPS+ seasons, which occurred in each case in the age range of 26-28 (surprise, surprise). Discounting Gregorius' 2019 stats a bit, because of the injury, it looks one could expect similar OBP from each of them in 2020 (around .325 or so - not bad, but not special either). Gregorius has a bit more power than the other two. Defensively - Cesar is deficient anywhere but 2B; Segura and Gregorius can play a respectable SS, and presumably 3B.

It almost doesn't matter, as best I can tell, which two of these three man the two middle infield positions. If you add a third one (3B), you're taking PA from somebody else. That's going to be either Kingery or Haseley...both younger players who likely have not reached their offensive peaks.

From my perspective, signing Gregorius and moving Hernandez, or moving Segura, really doesn't change much (except the names on the jerseys - might sell a few more of them). Having all three on the roster might actually be a negative, if Kingery or Haseley loses PA (which might be more productive PA, and might contribute to offensive development/growth for either of them).

Now, if Gregorius at 30 rebounded to his 2018 performance (OBP and SLG), that would be an improvement - but my guess is that, while he'll likely be better than his injury-shortened 2019, he won't return to the 2018 level - it's the age thing again. 30-year-old players are starting down the back side of the hill.

I wouldn't mind their signing Didi... but I don't expect it to make a lot of difference. Running in place, waiting for Bohm (and counting on Bohm being the real thing).

Love to be wrong, though!

[flyers19rw]

The analysts have to come into play with possibly acquiring some of these players like Didi. Didi was not a big bat until he got to Yankee Stadium. LH hitter; short RF porch; will those balls get to the wall in CBP?
On a similar but different subject, we've chatted about the impact of the sign stealing on the Astros hitters. Did any of this have an impact on Houston's pitchers? Could knowing that your team is going to score for you affect the way that you approach other team's hitters? Three pitchers that had been struggling in their careers saw their numbers get a big boost in Houston-Morton, Verlander and Cole. Perhaps it was due to getting coached up by the Astros, maybe other things. Just wondering.

[fish]

The analysts have to come into play with possibly acquiring some of these players like Didi. Didi was not a big bat until he got to Yankee Stadium. LH hitter; short RF porch; will those balls get to the wall in CBP?

I don’t think the Yankees ballpark is improving hitters as much as whatever it is they’ve done to figure out how to develop hitters.

[zambonir]

Re: The Astros

There’s Plenty of Evidence the Astros Stole Signs. Is There Proof It Worked?

(Their coaching/analytics definitely gets a lot of credit too, for all the good it did us with Young.)

I think it's unlikely Segura and Hernandez are both on the team this year if they sign Gregorius. Their interest is likely because the market for Moose and Donaldson might be more robust than they expected, particularly in terms of years. If it also creates a scenario where they could get free of Segura's contract they'd explore that (and then could just keep Hernandez for his final season. Then if Bohm fast-tracks you can trade Cesar at the deadline).

But if you go that way you really need 2017-2018 Gregorius. 3-4 WAR. You might not get that from Moustakas either though (or Donaldson, given his age and presumed injury risk).

No comparison between any of them and Franco really. Even if Gregorius was only a 1.0 WAR that's almost a +2 difference. A Kingery/Brad Miller platoon almost certainly > Franco too.

[andyb]

Missed this on Friday. MLB Trade Rumors posted their Phillies summary. Not much new but all the contracts and options in one place:

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

[Austinfan]

Can't see them giving Hernandez $12M when they can get a better veteran for similar money, of course, his agent can also read the tea leaves.

Franco is gone, Herrera is a problem but that's the downside of giving long-term deals to young players, the upside is if Kingery keeps improving, he's gonna be a bargain in a year or two.

Klentak only has about $40M or so to play with even if he jettisons Franco and Hernandez, so it's either one premier FA and no depth or do a lot of shopping in the bargain basement bin and hope to get lucky - even if they busted past the cap an extra $20M doesn't buy you prime rib eye in this market.

[flyers19rw]

Cutting Herrera outright would cost the Phillies $21M ($7M for ‘20; $10M for ‘21 and $4M in buyouts for ‘22 and ‘23). While being bothersome, it’s a doable thing. Then there’s the possibility of moving him in a trade for another club’s problem player/contract. Some money might have to be thrown in to make things match. If the Phillies want to clear out Herrera, there are ways to do it. We’ll probably see some form of this scenario this winter. Shedding Franco and Hernandez won’t be that difficult either. The futures of these three players shouldn’t get in the way of the organization doing what it wants this off season.

[Philsmania]

Herrera is a problem but that's the downside of giving long-term deals to young players, the upside is if Kingery keeps improving, he's gonna be a bargain in a year or two.

At the time, extending Herrera looked like a fantastic idea. He was young, performed at a high level offensively and defensively for consecutive seasons and his personality quirks and oddities were more cute and endearing than troubling. Who reasonably foresaw that he would basically become toxic both on and off the field?

[zambonir]

Can't see them giving Hernandez $12M when they can get a better veteran for similar money

Who is actually a better FA 2B (or IF that moves someone else to 2B) that would cost less money though? Moustakas and Gregorius aren't going to cost less. Segura already makes $14.5 million and is arguably not better (though he might be, especially if he's also a better defender).

I do think Hernandez is gone, and Franco too of course, but the new IF will eat up most of that money, if not all of it.

You can already see the Phillies laying the groundwork for Herrera's release if it comes to it. It's still possible he might agree to a buyout in exchange for free agency, though the Phillies' only leverage there is saying they'll be sending him to AAA and they probably have no interest in doing that. You never know with a trade but it's a big PR hit for an acquiring team to take when the player isn't even good anymore.

[Lucky_Beagle]

Please explain this buyout concept I keep reading about. Herrera has signed a contract which is guaranteed. Why would he accept anything less and how can it even be offered?

[Florida_Sunshine]

Wouldn't the Phils be able to put Herrera in the minors and keep him there if he was not able to return to his previous good play, not the most recent play?

At some point, Herrera would then accept a buyout.

[zambonir]

What's next for Herrera after domestic violence arrest?

MLB teams have enjoyed more success in negotiating reduced payment obligations and contract buyouts with players who encounter legal controversies. Nine years ago, the Mets reportedly negotiated a reduction in contractual guarantees owed to pitcher Francisco Rodriguez after he was charged with assault. In 2005, the Baltimore Orioles and Colorado Rockies successfully bargained buyouts of the contracts for pitchers Sidney Ponson and Denny Neagle after the two ran into legal problems. The Orioles and Rockies, however, agreed to pay out substantial amounts of those contracts—meaning the players walked away with most of the money owed to them.

As it says, the Phillies wouldn't likely save a ton of money. But they might save some money.

Any contract can be renegotiated or bought out if both sides want to do it. The motivation for Herrera to accept any kind of buyout would mostly be dependent on the Phillies' willingness to keep him in the organization (with the threat of burying him in the minors, since he's not out of options). In that scenario he gets his $21 million but his MLB career is likely over. By the time 2022 rolls around he won't have seen major league pitching for almost three years and there will be other Phil Gosselin types for any team to sign who doesn't have a domestic violence suspension on his record.

His MLB career may also be over if he's just released. But negotiating could serve him better. A release sends the clear message that the Philies want nothing to do with him as a player or a person. With a buyout his agent can make it part of the redemption narrative. "He knows he did something wrong. He's so eager to show he's back on the right track that he gave up $4 million in guaranteed money so he can make a fresh start." And even if he's just a 4th OF for someone he'd get that money back quickly.

Despite the fact that they are not allowed to release or demote him for anything but "baseball reasons" the Phillies have plenty of leeway there. Simply having new OFs (including Haseley) and saying Herrera isn't as good as them is enough to get rid of him before spring training. Aaron Altherr and Nick Williams lost their jobs for "baseball reasons" too, i.e., they signed two better players.

(btw, we still have Nick Williams. What's gonna happen there?)

[David_Criss]

If the Phillies are going to pay him anyway let him come to Spring Training and hope he plays like the former All Star he was or that he goes to AAA and forces his way back. The best thing for the Phillies and Herrera is for him to own up to this despicable act, get help, straighten his life out and be a good player.