2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[fish]

He averages over 6 innings a start...I mean in most circles that's a bit of a workhorse.

I think it would be better if you just said based on his country of origin, he would be better off in LA or Seattle because no one of his particular origin has ever pitched outside of those areas?

Does Philadelphia not have an established Asian community?

The entirety of your post is anecdote.

Averages 6 innings a start...and over his career 20 starts a year. Not a workhorse.

Yes, it is my opinion that based on my impression of Ryu he is a guy that would prefer and/or perform better in LA for a longer period than to leave the west coast. All my opinion, all anecdotal, and I have no faith that he'd live up to a contract or expectations in Philadelphia.

[schillingfan]

because the Mariners have had success with Japanese players, they would have success with a Korean player.

Aren't Japanese and Koreans basically the same people? The same culture? I mean, just ask any Japanese or Korean - they'll explain for you!

I think Zambonir was trying to say you can’t equate two separate Asian cultures. You cut off the Greg inning where he said it was problematic.

[julio]

SF - Err... the emoji was there for a reason?

[zambonir]

Yup I think we were on the same page even if you truncated my quote!

I actually just read this book, and the Korean-American author tells a story about how his girlfriend's father took them out for sushi and asked him to order, since he was obviously the expert.

I will say I'm not as interested in Ryu if his price is the same as Wheeler's or Bumgarner's. If you can get his Cy Young-caliber talent a little cheaper or shorter-term because of the spottier health track record, you have to consider it. Also, he might have less mileage on him.

[MattsRiff]

When it comes to trades, Jon Gray is the SP I hope the Phillies take a hard look at. He still has 2 Years of Team control which limits the risk, and is a very talented SP.

Outside of his inconsistencies, he's one of my favorite SPs to watch due to his dynamic stuff. He actually has pitched pretty well at Coors Field due to his ability to produce ground balls and high Strikeout Rate.

In short he reminds me a lot of Gerrit Cole, maybe a move to a new environment would also push his game to the next level?

[phillychuck]

I actually just read this book, and the Korean-American author tells a story about how his girlfriend's father took them out for sushi and asked him to order, since he was obviously the expert.

A lot of Chinese restaurants in our area now also serve sushi...capitalizing on the American tendency to homogenize the Asian cultures? The first time I told my grandkids I was ordering sushi from The Imperial Chinese restaurant they were sure I was being racist...

[zambonir]

Also sushi is so mainstream now that it's not that different from serving tacos or pizza or cheeseburgers, which many a ethnic restaurant (be it Asian or Latin American) has done in addition to their specialties. (And if you start talking about Mexican food or Italian food, restaurants that are devoted to a particular regional style still have to give in and serve popular stuff from other regions).

I'm enjoying the tangent but also gonna keep it on-topic - the other thing about Ryu is no QO. So he might not be cheaper than Wheeler or Bumgarner after all, especially since he's been waiting to hit this open market after taking his QO last year. But all else being equal you might be willing to pay more for him, or tolerate more injury risk with him, to keep a pick.

[andyb]

This suggests the Phillies might prefer to wait on Realmuto's extension to keep his 2020 tax hit lower (though it would then be higher for the extension).

Sounds like they are going to agree to both. 1-year deal plus and extension later that might have to be signed after the season starts to get around the AAV rules.

This seems short-sighted to me. Take a luxury cap hit this year and then give yourself a little more flexibility in a lower AAV the next 4 or 5 years.

[Austinfan]

What's a 2nd rd pick worth in terms of money?
Pretty small, probably could buy one for a million or so if they could be sold.

[mdougherty12]

Here's one estimate of draft pick values:

An Update on How to Value Draft Picks

[flyers19rw]

any interest in signing dellin betances? JG has had him. He's had his share of injuries but on an incentive laden contract he might be worth a spin.

[Austinfan]

Higher than I thought, but the $9M WAR is too high, it's the marginal value of expected WAR for free agents, but no team can build around an average of $9M WAR (30 WAR would cost $270M, and that would get you a little over .500 or so).

So I'd reduce the WAR value to about $6M for draft pick value. Which would put a 2nd rd pick value in the $3-4M range.

[allentown]

Phillies’ pursuit of international players has failed to yield a superstar like...

Here is an Inquirer article on the Phillies falling behind in signing and developing international talent. They list top 20 position players by f-WAR in 2019 and top 10 SP and top 10 relievers. The only Phillies signee is Villar, whom we included in the Oswald trade.

Interesting comment from Arbuckle that when he was here, our international budget was typically half the MLB average. Despite not being constrained by MLB, the Phillies internal budget cut back on spending for amateur talent to budget more at MLB level, which was constrained by MLB. In other words, the owners' penny-foolish attitude to abandon aggressive player development for over half a decade is what shot a hole in their wallets. That and not letting RAJ keep both Lee and Halladay with a one-year MLB budget boost.

One thing that sticks out to me is that more of the WAR big hits, and the biggest hits, are among position players, a game we don't play especially well.

Sorry about that. I somehow backspaced and lost the l in html. Here is the working link.

[zambonir]

Well as the story says next year they get free of Arrieta and Robertson. If they're planning to spend really big this year (especially if they also keep Cesar) it probably makes sense.

[fish]

Here is an Inquirer article on the Phillies falling behind in signing and developing international talent. They list top 20 position players by f-WAR in 2019 and top 10 SP and top 10 relievers. The only Phillies signee is Villar, whom we included in the Oswald trade.

Interesting comment from Arbuckle that when he was here, our international budget was typically half the MLB average. Despite not being constrained by MLB, the Phillies internal budget cut back on spending for amateur talent to budget more at MLB level, which was constrained by MLB. In other words, the owners' penny-foolish attitude to abandon aggressive player development for over half a decade is what shot a hole in their wallets. That and not letting RAJ keep both Lee and Halladay with a one-year MLB budget boost.

One thing that sticks out to me is that more of the WAR big hits, and the biggest hits, are among position players, a game we don't play especially well.

Sorry about that. I somehow backspaced and lost the l in html. Here is the working link.

Agostenelli did a nice job for a few years without a lot of money, but it’s time the international scouting hierarchy to be honestly evaluated. They missed on lower bonus guys when they’ve spent on big, and the last several years look pretty barren. But even Morales doesn’t look like he’ll sniff the top 50. Garcia is promising but doesn’t have much value at the moment, and the last “almost big bonus guy was the first high profile guy in a long time to be busted for lying about his age. All the division rivals are much better at this. 20 years is long enough to evaluate if these results are really what they expect, right?

[MattsRiff]

“The new rules work against the best scouts,” Arbuckle said. “The buscones [independent Latin scouts] will take the best kids out of the main stream until they are age-eligible and then they will shop them to the teams with the biggest bonus pools. Good scouts and aggressive scouts used to be able to sign some of the best players for $50,000 to $100,000, but now they don’t get a chance to see them. I would liken it to the system that is in place domestically. It has allowed the lazy clubs and the inept clubs to catch up.”

I found this quote interesting. Not sure if this is excuses or an actual issue.

[allentown]

Probably partly true, partly excuse, and largely irrelevant. We weren't exactly prospering under the old system. Our two biggest bonuses, $1 million and $4 million were large bonuses. We didn't find top talent for those $. It seems we truly don't now what to look for in position players. This year's top-guy-to-be was a fraud. We were the only team which seems to have fallen into that trap, sort of a rare trap in recent years.

[andyb]

Forget about all those low bonus Latin American players if this new minor league system takes hold. Teams would probably have a small draft, like 10 rounds. Or a pool from which they can only sign 10 because of the 150 player limit.

So the only players signed will have decent bonuses. We better get good at that game.

[Austinfan]

If you look at the lists in that article of the top WAR guys, it's almost exclusively big money Cuban and Japanese signings, and smaller money LA signings, the top LA prospects rarely pan out.

Which means the key in scouting LA isn't identifying 16 year olds who are mature for their age and outperforming their peers and throwing big money at them - but finding the 16 year olds who are "normal" and projecting the ones that will be outstanding at 20 years old.

[andyb]

the top LA prospects rarely pan out.

They pan out more than you imply. Percentage-wise the success rate is lower than the draft, but so are the bonuses. There are quite a few Vlad Guerrero's and Miguel Cabreras and Juan Sotos to balance the ones that fail. 3rd round pick slots range from $780K to $543K. How many 3rd round picks in each draft actually generate more than a handful of WAR?

In 2012 there were no players worth at least 5 WAR from the 3rd round. 2013 also none. 2014 has one (Brian Anderson). There are a bunch of fringe players who made the majors from those drafts but no stars.

Getting one 5-WAR player out of 90 players signed to $650K bonuses would be the equivalent.

There is really little to suggest that spending in Latin America is better or worse than spending on the draft. And there are no $5 million plus bonuses any more (like Moniak's $6.1 million) so the failures even of million dollar signings are not that bad. Luis Garcia failing for the Phillies is about the same as Cornelius Randolph failing. The risk was likely similar (not to technically give up on either - just the risk of the signing was pretty similar).