2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[Austinfan]

You mean like the Angels?

Dodgers reported offered Harper $180M for 4 years, then he'd been a FA at 31, with a serious risk of looking at a 3-5 year offer at a much lower rate. And moving his family, which seems to be an issue for him.

[andyb]

No idea what you mean by the Angels. You keep saying Harper would have signed elsewhere for less. There does not seem to be much evidence of that. As long as the money is competitive there is no reason players would not sign with the Phillies like you imply.

[zambonir]

I don't think the Buck brothers are any cheaper/"good boys" than Middleton (compared to the old MMM ownership group including their parents). But the reality is throughout MLB the tax is treated as a cap and even the teams that have gone over it seem eager to not go over it. Given the Phillies don't have nearly the talent NY, Boston, Houston and even Chicago and Washington have, hopefully they won't be good soldiers, whether that's a league thing or a corporate philosophy.

The lack of tradeable depth is obvious but that doesn't mean they won't do it. I still think Haseley and Bohm aren't untouchable but it also depends what else they do (though even if they sign a 3B, Bohm could be our next 1B or LF). Ideally the pitcher they go after in a possible trade is at least a partial salary dump, where a more modest package gets it done, and I'm also still hoping (perhaps pie-in-the-sky) that Williams, Franco, perhaps Hernandez, perhaps Bruce, perhaps even Knapp can at least add a little more minor league depth (or possibly a bullpen piece).

AF's original point is still not wrong though. If the pitching dominoes start to fall in December and Cole looks to hang around through February, what's the move? Waiting on Machado and Harper didn't stop the Phillies from getting Segura and Cutch and it will be a similar dynamic this time. A bigger FA signing means you are probably out on Cole; a smaller on or a trade means you aren't.

[bkeich]

The lack of tradeable depth is obvious but that doesn't mean they won't do it. I still think Haseley and Bohm aren't untouchable but it also depends what else they do (though even if they sign a 3B, Bohm could be our next 1B or LF). Ideally the pitcher they go after in a possible trade is at least a partial salary dump, where a more modest package gets it done, and I'm also still hoping (perhaps pie-in-the-sky) that Williams, Franco, perhaps Hernandez, perhaps Bruce, perhaps even Knapp can at least add a little more minor league depth (or possibly a bullpen piece).

I would like to think that Bohm, Haseley and maybe even Moniak are not going to be even considered, especially given our lack of depth in the minors. Certainly any of Williams, Franco, Hernandez (underrated player IMHO), Bruce, Knapp and a slew of relievers are available for a move if needed. Most of those guys have zero value, some (Herrera) actually have negative value at this point.

I wouldnt do it, but even Pivetta and Velasquez are available for a good deal. I think both of those guys could be pretty good relievers, particularly Velasquez.

Neris is an interesting question. He might be someone who would bring back significant value above what his actual value might be. Once again, I dont want to see it, but he has to be a guy that teams would talk about. He is a big enigma, he is completely dependent on hitters swinging at a pitch that is a ball, but frankly they just keep doing it (although he goes through periods where he can't fool anyone). He is a good reliever, just scary because when he is bad he is just freaking awful, usually for a week or two.

[andyb]

That is the quandary. None of what we have to trade that is obvious has much value. The ones that are better players might be non-tendered. Bruce might actually have among the highest value since he comes with almost no salary and an AL team that has the DH might be intrigued if they are budget limited.

VV and Pivetta would both be trading low IMO. If we are not going to start them, somebody else might think they can fix them and get them at $0.50 on the dollar. Moniak is the one prospect that makes sense to trade (or Haseley) since they play the same position and have the same tweener projection.

We are just not going to get much unless we trade the top prospects (Bohm, Stott, Howard, Medina, Morales). Maybe Grullon is tradeable too if we don't see him as an improvement on Knapp. I actually think there is a 700-750 OPS bat buried somewhere in Knapp that has just not surfaced due to small sample (or the difficulty of infrequent playing time as a backup).

[zambonir]

Yeah I think the only untouchable is Bohm (and, obviously, Howard) but if you sign Rendon or have to go three years on a FA he ceases to be untouchable (still an important young player with a future that the Phillies may not want to squander, but not untouchable).

Finding A Match In A Starling Marte Trade

Marte doesn't seem like a Klentak sort of player, especially since Segura and Kingery are already less walk-centric. Probably still better to sign a 3B than trade for a CF especially since Haseley is a fine option for at least half the time but they can't rule anything out.

I think all the guys who have very little value still have some value, Herrera included. I mean, I'm talking the sort of things they got for Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz, Roberto Hernandez. Token depth but maybe you get one future reliever or re-tradeable piece out of it down the line.

I just assume if they do trade for a pitcher, Pivetta or VV will be in the deal, and if they do trade for a CF, ditto Moniak or Haseley.

[schillingfan]

The logical reason behind Hamel’s second half decline could be the new ball. It seems to have affected guys that throw off speed movement stuff. It would be interesting to have some statically data to see how certain kinds of pitchers fared. Hamels and Nola are both great command pitchers. Nola seemed to lose a lot of his command. Did the arms get tired because they were having to throw more pitches to get batters out with men on bases, i.e. mores stressful situations. WHIPS, pitches per inning, etc.?

[Taudawg]

Marte's next two years are at a reasonable price and PNC park is considered a pitchers park. He hits for a little better avg at home, but more power on the road. Might see a numbers bump in CBP. He would work best if the Phillies signed a lefty like Moose to play 3b. Perhaps they could swing a trade with Moniak and some others, and avoid giving up Haseley.

[zambonir]

I realize your scenario allows them to non-tender Cesar (or trade him) but I don't see the Phillies spending trade capital on a CF and signing an everyday player FA (or vice-versa). I think it's more likely they keep Cesar and/or sign/trade for a second player who can share time at whichever position they don't otherwise fill.

It is not an easy roster to put together, but I certainly don't think you can count on all the best-case scenarios (bounce-back from Hoskins, Cutch picks up where he left off, Segura is better, Haseley is good enough to play every day, Bohm is ready in July), so they'll be busy.

[Austinfan]

You know if we trade Haseley, he'll be the next Yelich.

[zambonir]

You could say the same about Moniak. Heck, I remember when we thought Herrera was the next Yelich (or at least, good enough that there was no reason to get Yelich).

[andyb]

You are probably the only person on the planet that thinks that. Made the majors 2 years later. Was never nearly as good in the minors even though he was a couple years older at each level. No 30 SB speed. But yeah, let's not trade him because he is an untouchable.

None of that means he does not have value and is not a useful player. He is worth more than Moniak at this point because he made the majors. We still don't know if he is more than a 4th OF or below average regular though.

[zambonir]

I think the difference between Gerrit Cole and the next available free agent might be as big as the difference between Charlie Morton and NIck Pivetta.

[andyb]

Smaller difference if Strasburg opts out. I think he'll stay with the Nats, but it is Scott Boras.

[zambonir]

True true. Haven't most of the prominent Boras clients with opt-outs stayed put (with a renegotiation/extension)?

[phillychuck]

I can't imagine that Cole won't resign with the Astros if they want him, which I'm pretty sure they do.

[zambonir]

Not clear they can pay him and he is not their only looming decision.

[Taudawg]

If the Astros resign Cole, I can't see how they don't go well into the tax. Will they do so for a year or two? I guess the Phillies might have to answer that same question.

[Squire]

I will admit that I was pretty pumped during the 2015-2016 offseason. Thought Amaro had done fantastic in trading Hamels for Nick Williams, Jorge Alfaro, Jake Thompson, Jerad Eickhoff. He had got Eflin before the season. Thought Klentak had done pretty good trading Ken Giles for Velasquez, Mark Appel, Eshelman and Harold Arauz. They had just signed Jhailyn Ortiz in the summer of 2015 and were going to have the #1 pick in the 2016 draft under a system that was going to give them a ton of extra money to play with. And the answer is.....we pretty much blew it.

[Austinfan]

I was skeptical of the Hamels trade at the time b/c both Williams and Alfaro were the #2s in the Ranger organization at their positions, and both lacked plate discipline. Ironically, Phillies got the most WAR out of Eickhoff, who might have had a solid career if not for that fluke nerve injury.

Giles for Velasquez will probably end up a wash, depending if Velasquez becomes a solid RP, Giles has been up and down.

Ortiz, Encarnacion, Morales, Phillies developed a bad habit of paying top dollar for physical mature 16 year olds - the problem is you're paying for kids who dominate 16 year olds but have less upside because either they're physically maxed out or overage (i.e. better research those ages).