2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[philsphan67]

Interesting stat on MLB now today -- Hoskins hit .229 when shifted on and .429 when there was no shift. The MLB shift stat for right handers was there were less than 100 shifts against R hand hitters in 2011 and almost 19 000 last year.

[BostonRoss]

Megan at the The Athletic made a good point in her mailbag today - why would you make a costly trade for Lindor and sign him to a rich extension when you can just sign Rendon? Yeah, you'd get more peak years of Lindor for less money, but you wouldn't have to give up any players, you get more offense (if less defense), and you stop paying Rendon sooner. And if you still want to trade Bohm, it's for something else.

That's sensible. Trading for Lindor never made sense to me. He's great and I wish he played for the Phillies, but he'd be really expensive and doesn't address any of the most pressing needs.

Sure, signing Rendon would be better than trading for Lindor. Probably both are fantasies, though.

[Austinfan]

Hoskins simply has to accept the only way to be the shift is to become a hitter who takes a pitch where it's located rather than try to pull everything and roll over on outside pitches into the shift. He's got the power to consistently hit the ball 400+ ft to right CF, instead of trying to pull it 450'. When he does go with the pitch, he's almost unstoppable, when he starts chasing low sliders and pulling outside breaking stuff he's roadkill.

[bigegypt0417]

Phils hire hitting coach Joe Dillon from Nats

I really like this hire!

Dillon has a little history with Bryce Harper and hopefully will work on cutting down on K's.

[phillychuck]

I like the hire, but I'm pretty doubtful that targeting a reduction in strikeouts is one of his goals. I admit I could be wrong, but he's from an analytics school that doesn't consider K's to be any worse than other outs.

[xogfog]

I just got a ridiculous to me e-mail titled, HOF Debate: Is Abreu bound for Cooperstown. I laughed out loud when I saw the title of that message. He is on the ballot for the first time this year, joining several others with Phillies connections (Lee, Schilling, Rolen, Wagner and Ibanez). As far as Abreu, I think he'll drop off after this first ballot, I don't see him as a HOF player. He was a two time All Star, and never finished in the top 10 in MVP voting. He won one highly controversial Gold Glove and one Silver Slugger. Hit .291 and had 2,470 hits over an 18 year career. Good player, not great, certainly not a HOFer IMHO.

As for the others I vote yes on Schilling, Rolen, Wagner, I vote no on Ibanez and Lee. Thoughts?

[xogfog]

Heard a couple rumors on the radio today:

Phillies would trade Segura and a couple of middling prospects for David Price as Boston is looking for salary relief.

Or

Phillies would trade Segura, Bruce and a couple of prospects to the Cubs for Kris Bryant and Jason Heyward as the Cubs are also looking to shed salary.

Edit: Apparently these ideas came from Joel Sherman

[Lawman]

I'd do it for Bryant and Heyward. I wouldn't touch Price.

[flyers19rw]

Either of those trades has some validity. Price is mostly a salary dump -$31 M per for three years. At age 33 you might get two decent years out of him. Maybe Joe Price can get better production out of him that the Sox did. However he has a history of breaking down these days and at his age...
The Bryant/Heyward trade is interesting. Heyward has been a puzzle since his last year in Atlanta. The talent was there at one time but for whatever reason hasn't been able to be brought back. What strikes me the most out of the trade proposal is that it sure looks like Bryant can't wait to get out of Wrigleyville. They jacked him around with delaying the start of his contract and then have moved him all over the place in the field. It sure seems that KB and the Cubs have no future together so they're looking to move him now while he still has prime value. They'd want more than Segura, Bruce and middling prospects in return. Probably Hasely, Bohm and/or Stott. Not interested.

[andyb]

I would be interested in Price if the Red Sox pick up at least half his salary (not just the Segura offset). He has not been awful the last 2 years when healthy. If he were a free agent I would sign him for 3 years and $40 million total. He is owed $96 million of course over the next 3 years. At $40 million there is still risk, but he also might be a 3 WAR pitcher if healthy (and is left-handed and a good clubhouse guy).

[David_Criss]

Where would Heyward play in Philly? The man still gets on base. Does Cutch slide back to center and Heyward learns LF? Is Heyward better than Bruce as a starting option in LF in that scenario?

[andyb]

Heyward would be the CF in these scenarios. He has played much more of that of late than Cutch and generally grades out close to average there still.

I just would not put much stock in these rumors though. On Price for instance, Segura probably has as much or more trade value alone since his contract is less than half what Price is owed. These are rumors from a reporter who is not really up on the latest analytics considering surplus value and we know our front office is very aware of that stuff.

In general it is bad for a team like the Phillies to trade prospects for expensive players with limited years of control. If we were trading prospects for a younger, pre-arbitration player that would be different. Of course those players are not on the market if they are stars.

[bigegypt0417]

I read a couple of articles and they point to a guy who is also trying to marry the new school to the old school...I like that he believes that players should practice more extensively and under simulated game conditions. they talk about it a little here:

Phillies to Interview Nationals’ Joe Dillon for Hitting Coach Position

Dillon, Salisbury writes, is gaining recognition around baseball “for marrying new-age science with old-school principles in coaching hitters,” a similar philosophy as to what Girardi will bring to the Phillies.

[andyb]

Gelb notes column. The parts on relief pitching and rule 5 moves are all about the Phillies adding higher velocity and removing pitchers that don't throw hard.

Also we lost 3 development/analytics types apparently. Growing pains appears to be the reason more than change in philosophy.

Gelb on the Phillies: Joe Dillon's task is clear, roster...

[California_Dreamin]

andyb, actually I took the loss of the 3 development employees in a positive light, not a negative one. It appears they all got promotions with their new jobs and this would indicate to me that they were effective in their roles.

As Gelb indicated, these new growing pains included lots of new people, new positions and new philosophies. As has been the case since Carpenter sold the team to Giles back in the Fall of 1981, the Phils do still seem to be trying to catch up in a baseball race that they found themselves miles behind.

But I did find it encouraging that other teams are recognizing some talent within the Phils organization and are promoting them. Seems a good thing to me.

[zambonir]

Here's the Sherman thing, I presume. Haven't watched it yet but who's our SS if we trade Segura, Kingery? (While keeping Hernandez and signing a 3B?)

https://www.mlb.com/video/sherman-plays-phils-gm-for-a-day?t=mlb-network

[Philsmania]

Rumor of the day has the Phillies going after Gregorius and Bumgarner.

MLB rumors: Phillies after Didi Gregorius and Madison Bumgarner; Cubs eyeing...

[flyers19rw]

I’d be in on that.

[zambonir]

Well, that's certainly the answer to trading Segura (or moving him).

[fish]

Rumor of the day has the Phillies going after Gregorius and Bumgarner.

I’m not hot in committing Kingery to centerfield, but I could get over it if it meant Gregorius at short and Seguera at second. I think Gregoriius is as good a bet for a rebound on a discount as there is out there.