2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[julio]

Free agents leave the roster at 9 am Thursday. Happy Halloween!

By my count, we have 44 guys who will still be on the roster (counting Herrera here) after the free agents depart. That's before any potential Rule 5 targets are added to protect them.

Winter rosters need to be set by November 20th. Three weeks, folks. Outrights, releases, players claimed (to and from the Phils) off waivers. Trades, perhaps.

Undoubtedly some minor league transactions, too. Busy time for the front office.

[el-pietro]

There is no injury list in the winter right? So the Phillies need to get down to 40 players (plus Odúbel)? Is there any reason not to cut Robertson? Hes on a one year deal and best case scenario he comes back in what September? Can they even cut an injured player?

[Philsmania]

There is no injury list in the winter right? So the Phillies need to get down to 40 players (plus Odúbel)? Is there any reason not to cut Robertson? Hes on a one year deal and best case scenario he comes back in what September? Can they even cut an injured player?

I could be wrong about this but I don't think they can outright him.

[andyb]

Robertson could also be back for the last couple of months if he is on the short end of the 12-14 month TJ surgery timetable. Maybe the trade deadline bullpen arm we don't need to trade for!

[julio]

3 posts were split to a new topic: Winter 2019-20 Roster / Rule 5 Draft Discussion

[Philsmania]

Neshek's second--and less successful--Phillies stint is officially over.

Phillies decline Pat Neshek’s 2020 option – Phillies Nation

[nycphils]

Mike Moustakas is probably the perfect fit for what we need - a lefty bat, can play 3B until Bohm is ready (or even more if Bohm can’t handle it defensively), then move to 2B. Allows Kingery to move to CF, which also makes Haseley the 4th OF, the role for which he is most suited. Maybe even convinces the Phillies to keep Cesar for the year, although I still think $11-12M for him is ill-advised.

Next year the 26 man (13 pitchers max) rule comes in to effect. That means a 5 man bench. Haseley and Bruce mean they need to find a RH IF/OF to go along with a backup C (Knapp or Grullon) and backup IF that can play shortstop. Brad Miller as the backup IF is a possibility, as he hits righthanders well and plays a lot of positions, although that would make the bench heavy on lefties.

[nycphils]

On the pitching side, I’d throw whatever it took at Cole to get him, but by all accounts he wants to go home to Anaheim and I expect they feel the same way about whatever it takes.

Strasbourg seems likely to head to either the Padres or resign with Washington, although I’d probably give him $180 over 7-8 years (same theory as the 13 year Harper contract - he’s worth $30m a year, but why not tack on an extra year or even two at roughly the same money to bring down the AAV even if you have to release him on the back end). Don’t know that the Phillies will be willing to risk that kind of money for a pitcher though.

That brings me back to Hamels (who I can see taking a 4yr, $60m contract with an Arrietta structure - it is two years guaranteed at $15-18m/per, with a mutual 2 year extension at the same money or an opt out, each of which can be exercised after the first 2 years.

Can also see Zach Wheeler at 4yrs, $100m. A rotation of Nola/Wheeler/Arrietta/Hamels/Eflin (with VV and NP in the pen or AAA in NP’s case) in 2020 and hopefully Nola/Wheeler/Hamels/Eflin/Howard in 2021 would be good, and hopefully that gives us another couple years to grow a couple more potential arms for when Hamels is gone or in serious decline or there are injuries.

Biggest downside is another year without 2nd/3rd round picks.

[EDmuch]

I think the Phils should move quickly & decisively to get Strasburg. I don’t think we should remain static while waiting for the Cole situation to play out. If we can’t get Strasburg then we know we have to go hard after Wheeler.

On the position player side, is seems so obvious that we go after Moustakis who can play 3rd, 2nd or 1b and give us another solid LH power bar. The would allow the Phils to continue to move Kingery around as needed. And with the effectiveness of McCutcheon still unknown & Bruce’s penchant for injury I think we need to maintain Kingery’s flexibility.

I would also go hard after Will Smith to tie down a real closer. From what I read about Girardi, he likes more traditional, fixed roles in his BP.

I would not make any moves toward Hamels until close to spring training. He is in serious decline and I doubt teams will be knocking down his door. I offer him a 2 year deal only if it looks absolutely necessary when pitchers & catchers report.

[LoneStarPhan]

Boras clients are notoriously slow to sign. I agree completely that the Phillies cannot afford to wait for a free agent that they may well not be able to sign for what ever reason.

[California_Dreamin]

If there is one thing we should have learned about Boras by now is that his clients go where they get the most money, not where they grew up, where they live now, who they play for now or where they can get as close to Disneyland as they can.

This talk that Cole will likely go to Anaheim and Strasburg to San Diego belies the fact that there is little evidence that either of those teams are likely to offer the biggest paycheck. Artie Moreno is a shrewd businessman and I am not sure he views Cole as the savior of a franchise that lacks 3-4 starting pitchers and not just one. As for the Padres, the bloom is off the Preller bud and many here in SoCal now view the Padres as a perennial third or fourth place team in the NL West, never being terrible but never being great.

Look, if the Phils write the biggest check they will likely get their pitcher, Boras clients don't sign up with him to accept the second best offer. I also have seen it reported several times [think Salisbury was one] who said they had heard that Boras is determined to keep Harper happy and winning if he can and will try and steer some of his better clients Harper's way.

Add to this the fact that Middleton and Boras get along well, the Phils are one of the few big market teams willing to ADD salary instead of cut back, and there is no way Girardi would have come to Philadelphia if he didn't receive a pretty solid mandate from the organization that they were determined to win in 2020.

Add all this up and I will be very surprised if we are phans don't end up looking back at this off season as a very fruitful one. Its almost like the perfect storm for the Phillies.

[David_Criss]

Bob Nightengale
@BNightengale
Agent Scott Boras agreed days ago with the Washington #Nats that they would begin negotiations re-working Stephen Strasburg’s contract on Sunday
10:08 PM · Nov 2, 2019·Twitter for iPhone

[nycphils]

I don’t think the Angels have money constraints - they only have $90m committed in 2021 and they’ve been running $160m-ish payrolls, and they have Otani pre-FA until 2024 and Jo Adell coming up and looking good. Pujols also comes off the payroll at long last after 2021.

The padres have 3 guys at big numbers (Machado, Hosmer and Will Myers (yuck), but nothing but early arb guys otherwise as far as the eye can see, so them making a big commitment to a No. 1 pitcher like Strasbourg isn’t at all unlikely.

I don’t think they are going those places for less money, I think they are going to those places because those teams (a) can pay them what they want AND (b) are their preferred destinations.

[Austinfan]

"Less money" is relative, once you get in the $200-300M range, more money is less attractive than location.
I'm mean money is only about bragging rights at that point, not anything you'd want to buy.

[Taudawg]

I too might disagree with the assumption the Angels won't be a high bidder for Cole and/or Strasburg. The Angels just signed Trout to the largest deal ever, and when they signed Pujols, his deal was the 3rd largest ever behind the two A-Rod contracts. The Angels may have been waiting for this off-season, and the next one, to strike.Their payroll commitment for next year is reasonable, and in 2021 they only have 3 guaranteed contracts - 2 gurantees in 2022, and only Trout in 23. With Ohtani headed back to the mound next year, Joe Adell close, and Maddon signed to manage, it would seem they are all-in now. 2nd in AL in attendance and a sweet TV deal, they certainly have the money. The Angels could very well wreck our off-season hopes.

[zambonir]

Yeah the Angels have money and a history of paying. Don't forget them taking on all those Rangers guy too. And nothing about that history suggests Moreno is shrewd! Unless he's learned his lesson.

And yeah, the Padres have been a top player on the FA market in multiple seasons, and haven't done it for a pitcher yet. They are going to pay, probably.

The thing about Strasburg (who I still don't think is truly available) is, he's 31 years old, turning 32 mid-season. Would you give him six years $180? We blanched at six years $140 for Corbin, who was 29. Obviously that may have been a mistake and they're not going to bargain shop this year. But Cole is 29. Wheeler is 29. Bumgarner is 30 with mileage/injuries. If you're going to tack on extra years, better to pay for a guy who is gonna be 34 than 37.

Then again, if Strasburg does start talking openly to multiple teams and you don't think you have a real shot at Cole, the chance to have him - and take him from Washington - might be too good to pass up.

What about Ryu instead of Hamels, btw?

[Philsmania]

Cross Chapman off the list of potential bullpen targets.

Yankees and Aroldis Chapman reach three-year, $48M deal

[California_Dreamin]

I never suggested that the Angels wouldn't be the highest bidder, only that it is not exactly a done deal. Moreno is an interesting guy and well could decide to pay Cole top dollar. But he is not necessarily guaranteed to do so and also does NOT have a good relationship with Boras, stemming back to the Weaver negotiations. So there is that also.,..

[zambonir]

I really think the Phillies would have been hard-pressed to sign one of the league's other domestic violence offenders at the same time they are trying to manage the status of their own guy.

I suppose they could have used that as an excuse to release Herrera - "no, no, it's not because of the accusations, as you can see, we're happy to welcome a player who's served his suspension if he's actually good" - but would just be even worse PR.

Just because Girardi might prefer set roles doesn't mean it's smart to spend big money or three years+ on a closer, especially after the Phillies got burned on all three veteran reliever contracts the past two years. We already have a closer, too (who's actually been a closer longer than anyone on the FA market). Of course with all the injuries and question marks they are going to have to bring in somebody high-leverage and who knows if Smith or Harris will even rate a better deal than Robertson and Miller got last year (to say nothing of Kimbrel).

[tom81]

I expect a similar strategy this off-season to the one Klentak used last off-season. Overpay on second tier free agent early in the off-season so you aren’t forced to grossly overpay later in the off-season to get the first tier Boras client. Someone like Bumgarner or Ryu early, like Cutch last year, so you don’t feel as much pressure with Cole.