2019-2020 MLB Non-Phillies News/Notes Discussion

[Philsmania]

Nationals reward Will Harris for helping them win the WS.

Nationals Sign Will Harris

[andyb]

Kind of like the deal we did with Neshek but for 3 years. Older guy with a very good recent track record.

There does seem to be a market for guys in the $2-$4 million range. Would not be shocked if we signed one there, especially when we get Realmuto done.

[zambonir]

Seems to me three years $24 million sets a pretty high bar for the rest of the relievers - they'll either get $6-7 for one year or $10 million for two (which is basically what MLBTR projected for Hudson).

We can't sign Realmuto until the season starts right? (I mean, officially.)

[andyb]

We can't sign Realmuto until the season starts right? (I mean, officially.)

I thought we were going to do the 1-year deal now with the extension right after the season starts. If they pushed a few million from the 1-year deal into a "bonus" for the long term deal maybe we get him at a 7 or 8 million AAV this year.

That might mean we can spend $6-$8 million on something else for 2020. I am not talking Will Harris. But maybe someone like Brandon Kintzler for $3 million?. While Klentak has clearly realized he needs to upgrade the velocity in the bullpen, we also know he loves durable sinker ballers too.

[zambonir]

Oh, I misunderstood. Yes, presumably they won't go to arbitration. Seems like a tricky situation though. He's projected to get 10.3 million, not sure other teams could actually file a successful grievance if he takes a suspiciously low deal on February 5 and then signed an extension on March 29th, but the subversion would be pretty obvious (and even more so if he just agrees to a cheap deal before figures are even swapped). We also don't know how easy it's going to be to get the extension done. Seems more likely he gets what he gets and then they have another 6 weeks to hammer out the extension.

[Philsmania]

Nats resign Cabrerra. They really seem to have soured on Kierbom.

Nationals To Re-Sign Asdrubal Cabrera

[zambonir]

KieBOOM! You can't get a baseball name that good wrong.

He's 21 years old, they can afford to wait another year (or two) for him to come around. But to start on the defending World Series champion on Rendon's place? Maybe not for now. If anything, the fact that they got Castro and Cabrera instead of Donaldson (so far) suggests they want stopgaps, whether it's for three months or the whole season.

[andyb]

I think it is more that they are giving themselves inexpensive, but multiple options. Kendrick, Castro, and Cabrera plus Kieboom. If everyone is healthy in the second half of the year that is 2 starters and 2 bench players (remember they don't have a great 1B solution either). Kieboom was not ready last year so this gives him time plus an extra year of control.

[Philsmania]

Something tells me that if the Nats were the Phillies, we would be complaining about them not giving Kieboom a fair shot and instead signing veteran retreads.

[fish]

I thought we were going to do the 1-year deal now with the extension right after the season starts.

I don’t understand the nuances, but all the articles have said the deal is likely in spring training

Why Realmuto's contract extension with the Phillies might take some time

For whatever reason it seems they have to get to arbitration before they can do a 1 year deal for 2020 to then negotiate an extension.

[zambonir]

I think the timeline/restriction is pretty clear, what Andy is suggesting is that the Phillies and Realmuto could make an under-the-table deal where he agrees to less in 2020 knowing that he'll get more (both as a signing bonus and overall) in the extension. Which would be deliberate circumvention of the luxury tax and also requires more selflessness from JT than is likely. Ordinarily you'd do the extension now and he'd still only get $10-12 million this year, while spreading out another $80-90 million over the remaining four years to create a 5-year $20 million AAV. But the Phillies don't want that. They're willing to spend more money - and take on a higher AAV - going forward to keep a low one this year. And Realmuto really holds all the cards here. He would probably win in arbitration this year and then could still cash in on the open market next year if he was so inclined.

Really it's another demerit against the Phillies and their unwillingness to pay the tax - they'd rather take on more potential dead money on JT in 2024 or 2025 than pay him more this season.

[allentown]

I realize that our expensive veteran relievers, who basically never really pitched for us before falling to injury, are a drag o n this year's budget, but it still scares me a little that the team is maneuvering to shift 'official' cap salary costs from 2020 to future years. My intuition says we need the spending freedom more in the following four years than we do this year, if we hope to be a strong contender that can advance through the playoffs during those years. Perhaps they know that the salary cap is going to end or be much looser. With how MLB is taking a PR hit to save pennies in the minor leagues, I haven't been at all convinced that MLB will eliminate the salary cap, raise it significantly, or reduce penalties for violation. The players certainly will strongly push for those things. Do they have the power to pull it off? The last contract is not encouraging in that regard -- the players' union embarrassed itself.

[andyb]

I think the timeline/restriction is pretty clear, what Andy is suggesting is that the Phillies and Realmuto could make an under-the-table deal where he agrees to less in 2020 knowing that he'll get more (both as a signing bonus and overall) in the extension

I am suggesting more of a subtle deal. Only a million or two less than the $10.3 million acknowledged and they should not let it get to the point of exchanging numbers for arbitration. These kinds of deals actually happen pretty often (taking less now to help a team stay under a salary cap line).

Of course, I think I would rather pay the tax in 2020 and go get another pitcher or two AND have the million or two AAV savings in the next 5 years. I think the Phillies are going to try to stay under unless they absolutely have to go over at the deadline. They will not go over for a middle reliever.

So they should sign Realmuto now for about $9 million if they are concerned with appearances and then give him a 5/100 extension in April. And add a $3 million reliever and leave room for another $1-$2 million utility player and that is it - stay under the luxury tax line - unless they need to acquire an expensive player at the deadline.

There is some logic to that strategy since the better free agents are now off the board. Of course it is an 86-88 win strategy unless they get some upside surprises (the most realistic being from guys like Hoskins, Arrieta, Velasquez, and Pivetta). They really need some 3-4 WAR season from players that did not deliver that last year to be competitive.

[zambonir]

Well, Donaldson is still on the board. Trades for a 3B, pitcher, higher-leverage reliever or CF are still on the board. But yeah, otherwise it's a wild card team at best unless quite a few players on both sides of the ball hit ceilings (I'd add Cutch, Segura, Kingery and several relievers to your list).

Robertson is the only dead money hurting them (along with Herrera) but his money is not the problem per se. It's that five of the eight position players and two of the top three starters are all highly paid FAs or trade acquisitions - no different from the 2011 team really, except without the homegrown stars who gave us their cheap years first (and without any accomplishments).

So it's understandable they really want those last three spots (Kingery/Bohm, Kingery/Haseley, Hoskins) and last two pitchers to stay cheap and homegrown. It just seems like there's a bit of a mixed message/plan, or the GM and owner still aren't really on the same page. The owner wants a ring now but seems to think just changing managers and a few improvements are enough; my guess is his employees don't necessarily believe it's enough but are also temperamentally against paying the tax or selling out the future (with more trades or long-term contracts), even if they're not going to be here for it.

I don't think the team is looking towards the future CBA - nothing about teams' near-collusive approach to the CBT (it is not actually a salary cap) suggests the owners would ever give in on the cap. If anything most owners still want a real cap. And the penalties aren't really that big now (especiallly not for first-timers). Whatever the MLBPA might try to do to get player revenue improved, I don't think it will be that. A salary floor, reforming the draft to disincentivize tanking, earlier free agency, getting rid of QOs, higher pay earlier in the service clock... all more important. Plus they are going to get the DH probably.

Anyway, the Phillies aren't really "shifting" that much money forward, they are just opting not to shift any money backwards (as far as JT). With Arrieta, Robertson and Gregorius off the books this year, followed by Cutch and Herrera (after 2021) and Segura (after 2022) Realmuto's contract won't be a burder in and of itself. They just can't hack it this year.

[flyers19rw]

Don’t underestimate the impact of Girardi and Price. The Kapler/Young show exacted quite a cost out of this club’s performance. So many bad decisions from those two.

[zambonir]

Well, I don't necessarily believe that. I think the impact of such things are always overstated, and if we watched any other team 120 times we'd have a similar list of second-guesses. And I don't think Kapler was that bad either (Young obviously another story, but he still didn't have much talent - or healthy talent - to work with.) All managers do things that add a couple of wins while also doing things that subtract them.

Was last year's team (as ultimately constituted) an 84-win team that lost three more games because of a poor manager? Is this year's an 88-win team that might win 90 with a good manager? I don't know. I also don't know that Girardi has ever made a team better (if anything every single one of his teams underachieved since 2009, given which team it was).

But I hope it's true. There won't really be any way to tell 'cause some of these guys would probably have bounce-back seasons anyway. And some probably won't. It's not gonna be Girardi's fault if Cutch reverts to 2016 form given his age/health, and it won't necessarily be to his credit if Arrieta stays healthy enough to have his best season here. For all we know some guys also might not like playing for Girardi

[andyb]

I don't think the team is looking towards the future CBA - nothing about teams' near-collusive approach to the CBT (it is not actually a salary cap) suggests the owners would ever give in on the cap. If anything most owners still want a real cap.

I think there will still be a luxury tax threshold. There is just a pretty strong case that it gets pushed up into the $230-$240 million range. It has not gone up anywhere near the pace of revenues and seems to be one of the biggest drivers of player salaries being stagnant the last two years. There is a 10% increase that is overdue. Maybe they stage it over a couple of years, but clearly the limit could go up substantially to the point where getting under for the Phillies will be relatively easy unless they add another $30 million salary in 2021 or 2022.

[zambonir]

Oh i'm sure it will go up. Doesn't it already go up every year? It's just that the amounts were all pre-arranged in the last CBA rather than being tied to year-by-year revenue.

[andyb]

The issue is the amount it has increased. From 2014-2016 it was $189 million. Then the 5 years in the current CBA were $195, $197, $206, $208, and next year $210 million. MLB revenues were $10.7 billion this year, up about 45% from 2014 and still going up about 5% a year (it has slowed a bit). The threshold would be $250 million plus if it had kept pace with revenues and it really should be going up about $10 million a year.

This will be a huge issue in the CBA since the salaries have not kept up with revenue (though I am guessing MLB will argue other organizational costs have increased even faster than revenues). I am guessing the players are not going to be too happy if the analytics staff is given as the reasons their salaries are stagnant.

A reasonable new CBA has a $20 million immediate jump and then $10 million additional increases in forthcoming years (which would be like a 4% increase that is just below the current rate of revenue increase which is 5% the last couple of years.

[mdougherty12]

Washington re-signs reliever Daniel Hudson - 2 years/$11 million:

Nats, reliever Hudson reach 2-year deal (source)