2019-2020 MLB Non-Phillies News/Notes Discussion

[andyb]

For anyone who does not think the major league ball is juiced this year, I saw this stat on ESPN. AAA switched to the major league ball this season and this is what happened:

Pacific Coast League
2018: .270/.340/.423, 4.97 runs per game, 0.94 HR/game
2019: .270/.351/.466, 5.61 runs per game, 1.42 HR/game

International League
2018: .252/.320/.389, 4.16 runs per game, 0.80 HR/game
2019: .264/.343/.439, 5.24 runs per game, 1.18 HR/game

Part of the reason Reading is not a much more offense-friendly park than Lehigh Valley this year as offense is up across all of AAA.

[phillychuck]

That is really interesting!

Wonder if the best way to adapt to a juiced ball is to try to increase power or OBP on your team? I think I'd lean toward pushing for a high OBP since the "juiced" ball allows everyone to hit for more SLG, and better OBP will be synergistic with higher SLG.

[andyb]

I think I'd lean toward pushing for a high OBP since the "juiced" ball allows everyone to hit for more SLG, and better OBP will be synergistic with higher SLG.

That is probably right. It is the Yelich model. If guys that make contact more and have high OBPs go from hitting 15-20 HRs up to the 30 HR level then the high OBP offense probably is the best one to build.

I think we are going to see a huge number of ML home runs now that the weather is warmer. Some guys like Realmuto were not hitting a whole lot early on. Tonight might be the last cold weather game until September (should be upper 40s by game time but Wednesday the forecast is in the 70s). I foresee a bunch of 9-7 games in the future and we'll learn about the soft tossers (Eickhoff, Irvin) and whether their lack of stuff can avoid this HR barrage.

[flyers19rw]

Velocity is strangling baseball — and its grip keeps tightening

MLB has a situation here that needs attention. What the solution to it is is open for discussion but the game is killing itself with high velocity pitching going up against the current three outcomes strategy in hitting. Perhaps Mattingly is right in that hitters will adjust and bring back contact hitting and small ball and that will re-order the game. Perhaps it will be all of the broken arms that will force a change in approach. We'll see. However the cry of baseball being boring is not one that the powers at the top of the game should ignore.

[andyb]

I don't think the game will self-adjust. What we have seen is a natural consequence of shifts, small parks, and lively baseballs. Velocity is not going away. We could less the launch angle effect by taking the baseballs back to where they were a few years ago. That would lessen the reward for hitting over the shifts. Even deaden the ball purposely.

But velocity is not going away. Maybe pitcher limits will make 2-inning relievers a bigger priority but the fact is, velocity is important. The important 2018 stat from the article:

• Vs. 92 mph: .283/.364/.475
• Vs. 95 mph: .259/.342/.421
• Vs. 98 mph: .223/.310/.329
• Vs. 101 mph: .198/.257/.214

[el-pietro]

Its really nice to see an article addressing the core of the issue rather than talking about the symptoms, such as pace of play and the shift. Addressing the shift would just be window dressing, it wouldn't solve the real issue and wouldn't have anything more than a marginal noticeable effect on balls in play. Everything we are seeing is a result of increased velocity and as a result increased strikeouts. Reduce strikeouts and you get shorter at bats leading to faster games with more balls in play, and perhaps even more more stolen bases.

I'll be interested to see the outcome from the Atlantic league experiments. I think they have may be trying to do too much all at once and it will be hard to know which changes have the most impact when they are making a number at one time, but I think lowering the mound, or pushing it back slightly could help counter-act the increasing velocity. I have no idea what the correct distance/height should be but I'd like to see some experiments centered specifically around this. I do worry what effect this might have on pitrcher injuries if they try to compensate by throwing even harder though.

[mdougherty12]

538 on the gradual disappearance of "finesse" pitchers from MLB:

Where Have All The Crafty Pitchers Gone?

[schillingfan]

Reading that article reminds me of a fierce debate with the stats peeps on this board when BABIP statistics came out. I argued that just because there was no showing in one year that pitchers could control BABIP from year didn’t mean it wasn’t true over several years and their were pitchers that could induce weak grounders. Glad to see that it’s now acknowledged that such a creature exists, even though it’s on the verge of extinction.

[andyb]

Joey Gallo - MVP candidate?

Joey Gallo Was Built for Modern Baseball. Now He’s Destroying It.

[zambonir]

I guess updated lines came out yesterday 'cause I saw this on Sportscenter too. Phillies have 6th-best odds at 12 to 1 (tied with the Red Sox). Ahead of Cubs and Braves.

Twins are fourth, they have the best record in baseball at the moment. We took a series from them.

World Series odds, MLB futures: Twins and A's keep gaining, but we could be in...

[phillychuck]

Random fact--Derek Dietrich, who is tearing up the league (1.081 OPS), has a .197 BABIP.

[el-pietro]

Thats not as surprising as you'd expect, because more than half his hits have been home runs. The question is his flyball/HR rate sustainable. Christian Yelich has kept his up so ... maybe?

The Reds are really weird, they have a better Run Differential than the Phillies (partly due to a couple of big wins, but also due to a very poor record in 1 run game). I think they are a lot better than their record shows, definitely one to keep an eye on

On the other hand the Pirates are probably not very good.

[zambonir]

Mets blew a five-run lead last night in LA which is ultimately better for us right now I suppose.

Very interesting about the Reds. Still crazy Dietrich couldn't even get a contract (or be traded). Justin Bour, meanwhile, isn't even in the majors I don't think.

[zambonir]

Lindsey Adler (lindseyadler)

[andyb]

Kimbrel and Keuchel can be officially signed Monday without draft compensation. Technically at 12:01 ET PM in the afternoon.

Keuchel and Kimbrel might actually sign this week, but which...

[zambonir]

I have no idea who's right but MLBTR says it's actually midnight, in which case they could be signed by morning (though I'm sure the bidding war will take a few days, especially with teams focused on the draft itself).

Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel No Longer Attached To Draft Pick Compensation

[andyb]

I am guessing a signing will happen relatively quickly. Negotiations have probably been going on the last few weeks.

[el-pietro]

Came across this on Reddit a few minutes ago. INteresting given the discussion around velocity here last week. ~92MPH seems to be a dangerous speed for pitchers but I would suspect that is partly because more pitches are thrown around that speed than most others. It would be interesting to see these numbers as percentages of total too.

May 2019: The Most Home Runs Ever

[andyb]

Braves and Yankees the current favorites for Keuchel:

Mark Feinsand (Feinsand)

[Lawman]

If he signs at a low enough price (in therms of years) that we com way thinking why the flitz didn't the Phillies sign him, I'll be upset.