The Phillies gave up almost 100 more runs than they scored last year.  Even with some improvement from one or two of the young hitters, and a little more offense from C and 1B, I don't see enough to make up that difference.  Even though Arrieta's on the decline, he'll be better than the non-Nola starters were last year, but again that's not a big bump.  I think they'll struggle to reach .500.