The Phillies gave up almost 100 more runs than they scored last year. Even with some improvement from one or two of the young hitters, and a little more offense from C and 1B, I don't see enough to make up that difference. Even though Arrieta's on the decline, he'll be better than the non-Nola starters were last year, but again that's not a big bump. I think they'll struggle to reach .500.