2018 Trade Deadline rumors/speculation

zambonir 2018-07-23 21:45:31 UTC #744

The Mets are bad at everything

andyb 2018-07-23 21:54:55 UTC #745

In the Athletic Eno Sarris diagnoses the biggest problem as right field even with Williams. His solution: trade Cole Irvin for Shin Soo Choo and the $50 million remaining on his contract. Mentions taking Hamels too though unclear whether he thinks more prospect value would be needed.

I am fine trading Irvin. Limited upside near ready prospect having a good year. And we can absorb the Choo contract though it would be an open question as to whether we want him for next season without a DH slot. Interesting low prospect cost idea though.

zambonir 2018-07-23 23:09:25 UTC #746

I wondered if Shin might help them get Hamels and Diekman. It makes sense that RF is the easiest spot to upgrade the offense (and just moving Williams to the bench upgrades the bench). And I guess it doesn't make the defense any worse?

They don't seem to care about the defense, I know Gabe talks a good game defending his players and his coaches but at this point instruction and repetition for the young players (whether it's Kingery or Crawford or Hoskins or Williams) isn't going to have an impact this season. At least the pitchers miss bats.

Patchmk88 2018-07-23 23:51:09 UTC #747

Supposedly the Nats are in talks with Rangers for Hamels. I’m indifferent if we go after him or not, but I really don’t want to see the Nats get him.

schooldoc 2018-07-24 03:31:23 UTC #748

At least one recent report has debunked that.

zambonir 2018-07-24 03:46:03 UTC #749

Who knows. All subsequent reports today also say Phils' interest in Granderson not that high. Part of the dance either way.

Lawman 2018-07-24 12:38:38 UTC #750

At the end of the day, I don't think that the current Phillies lineup and the one we see August 1 will be radically different. Maybe a bat off the bench and some bullpen help. I just don't see huge upgrades available.

EDmuch 2018-07-24 13:03:37 UTC #751

We need bullpen help. Maybe we should be in on Zack Britton.

fish 2018-07-24 13:35:41 UTC #752

Amen to that. If they plan to make a playoff push they can't expect Dominguez to shoulder all the responsibility for high pressure moments.

andyb 2018-07-24 15:33:21 UTC #753

Then the question to ask is whether we should be interested in the two other closers out there on teams that are out of it but are controllable beyond 2018 like Hand. The two candidate MLBTR points out are Raisel Iglesias and Felipe Vasquez.

Vazquez is the lefty and like Hand has a pretty team friendly contract (3 more years plus 2 options) that would make him expensive in a deal. Beyond this year it is a 3 year/$19 million commitment. Vazquez should cost much more than Britton for that reason.

EDmuch 2018-07-24 15:49:14 UTC #754

There is a lot of talk here in Ohio that the Reds are beginning to think that they have turned the corner and better days are ahead in the near future . So they may want to hang on to Iglesias.

tom81 2018-07-24 17:42:56 UTC #755

I do think we could see two additions to the bench that might make a difference, Crawford and Quinn. If Haseley continues his recent hitting he could also be a late August addition. He already has more minor league PA’s than Juan Soto and is two years older. They may decide to go with some more of the kids.

EDmuch 2018-07-24 18:00:12 UTC #756

I am not sure that "more of the kids" is the best strategy for a September pennant race. I do not want to see the Phils become the Columbus BlueJackets who are always bringing up more "more kids" but are never advancing any further in
the NHL playoffs.

zambonir 2018-07-24 18:04:41 UTC #757

I still think a starter might be the way to go. More likely to win you the division, if less helpful in a short playoff series. Hopefully Eflin is just messed up from his blister and the all-star break but between Pivetta and him there are questions, and Velasquez and Arrieta could also hit a swoon (as Arrieta already did).

They need a reliever but I wouldn't want to spend more than Machado would have cost on a reliever. And that might be where the market is headed. There are a lot of relievers out there but you really never know what you are going to get with them. Get the lefty and you've got Garcia and Neshek and Arano and yes, even Hunter to pitch 7th and 8th innings. With Ramos still coming back.

I tend to think that is true about the Reds. And the Pirates are over .500 and talking about buying.

Agree the line-up won't look that different, none of the names that are being thrown about now would be anything more then a bench bat unless Franco or Williams falter, or they actually get a SS (but I doubt they can get one that's actually better, he'll either have no bat or will be someone with no more of a handle on the position than who we already have).

Patchmk88 2018-07-24 18:05:55 UTC #758

Interesting input by someone in a major league office brought up in our portion of the article. This person seems to think that at some point teams will be looking to shed salary rather than acquire prospects. Thinks the Phillies can possibly pick up some guys for next to nothing. I would love this route.

zambonir 2018-07-24 18:19:04 UTC #759

I mean, they're not gonna be the Columbus Blue Jackets. This wasn't even supposed to be Year 1 of the playoff era. More like Year 0. The goal was to develop players and win games. Now that they have exceeded expectations the goal changes, but it still isn't to win the World Series, or Machado (or the Padres relievers) would already be here.

I don't think they are going to rely on Crawford or Quinn either though. Quinn might break again. Crawford is useful and possibly an upgrade (over Kingery or Valentin). But, especially with Altherr gone, they obviously want to bring in at least one vet, whether he's an OF or IF or both.

Austinfan 2018-07-24 18:28:19 UTC #760

Exactly - the rebuild is still continuing, players are still learning on the job, and the worst mistake would be to think this team is a finished project that just needs a few tweaks. Will Eflin, Pivetta and Velasquez be starters next year, or De Los Santos, Irvin, Suarez replace one of them? Who is set in the bullpen? Are Kingery and Crawford young players with big upsides or overhyped? Is Altherr finished? Williams for real? Haseley on the rise?

I'm enjoying the ride without getting carried away. I think it's a great experience for the young players, and Kapler' biggest challenge is to get them to enjoy it without feeling the pressure that it's "win or else."

andyb 2018-07-24 18:40:08 UTC #761

Who is even asking that question? Most see a flawed team on a path to winning 86-87 games that could win 90 with a few tweaks. Trading some second tier prospects and spending some money to get there does not need to be equated with building the perfect roster. Making the current one a little better could help them win the division that is there for the taking.

Isn't the whole point to maximize a team's chances when they present themselves? This is a roster with a couple of pretty big flaws (left-handed late inning relief, power bat in the middle of the lineup, SS offense) so it is actually a roster where one could make small moves that would move the needle a handful of games.

There is a better case for the Phillies to make moves than the Nats (less prospect depth and financial flexibility) and the Braves (less money, more likely to regress). Now is not the time to stand pat when small moves can produce large dividends.

allentown 2018-07-24 19:05:53 UTC #762

I don't see that as realistic. You don't add 3-4 wins over the final 40% of the season with a few tweeks. That would be equivalent to adding 7-10 WAR over a full season. Even adding Machado was unlikely to add 4 wins in what was left of the season -- even if we had traded nobody likely to make a 2018 contribution.

zambonir 2018-07-24 19:22:49 UTC #763

I don't think you can literally use WAR. But if the team is currently projected to win 86 games, they could outperform that by two wins, and also add two wins. They could also underperform that by two wins, in which case they would really need the two extra wins a trade might get them just to still be in the race.

I don't think you add all that WAR from the players you add. You add it because you're not longer using below-replacement level guys (ideally). If you got 200 ABs from Granderson instead of Altherr you'd be replacing a -1.1 WAR guy with a +.4 guy (and those numbers are just for the 200 ABs). Obviously that's not going to happen exactly (for one thing Granderson is left-handed). But the same goes for Kingery, he is at -0.9 and I suspect that would be worse if he'd played SS all season so if you just got a replacement-level SS for the rest of the year that could be 1 win. Adam Morgan, 0 WAR in just 26 innings; Britton, .4 in 16 innings. It's not hard to get to two more wins, three if things break right, four-five if internal progress also happens.