2018 Trade Deadline rumors/speculation

[bigegypt0417]

Hamels may be a name but he's not really what I would consider "famous" anymore...

If it is Machado it will be a massive overpay. They would have to make it so much more than the Yankees that the MLBPA steps in and protects its interests.

As for Harper...I'm only touching him if MLB adds some rules to the types of shifts teams can use. Harper is being hurt due by the shifts being used against him.

[zambonir]

This why it is so frustrating when you don't post links, CD. The article includes Crasnick's tweet saying that Middleton would like to sign both Harper and Machado, so that's obviously what the ESPN writer means.

Anybody really think they would do that, or the players would want to do that? Surely they can each get more money separately (and this isn't the NBA).

What he actually says:

There are at least two or three very famous names who will probably join this club in the next 12 months and maybe as soon as, who knows, today.

Given the part about "as soon as today" #3 could indeed be Hamels, though they could still pull off a surprise deadline deal ("famous" is different from a "star." is Moustakas famous? Castellanos? Arenado?).

But this writer doesn't have any actual information about anything other than that tweet, and the near-universal understanding that they will be ready to spend and/or trade in 2019 (and would be open to getttng controllable players now too). "Next 12 months" basically means next deadline too.

Winning isn't the only thing: Realistic second-half goals for all 30 teams

[bigegypt0417]

Anybody really think they would do that, or the players would want to do that? Surely they can each get more money separately (and this isn't the NBA).

Simple question...why wouldn't they? What stops the Phillies from signing both? Why wouldn't two great players want to join the same team?

[zambonir]

The money, is all.It would be unwise for the Phillies to offer equal, record-breaking contracts to two position players of the same age in the same year, and unlikely those two players would take less money to play together, (and on a team neither of them has ever played for).

Sure, it could be done. But my question was, do you really think both sides would actually do it? And are we really taking the ESPN writer's second-hand conjecture that seriously? "At least two or three famous names" can mean just about anything.

I mean yes, I think the Phillies are going to sign and/or trade for as many as two regulars and one starter before next season, but it's not going to be Machado, Harper and Kershaw.

[LoneStarPhan]

Hamels is not the pitcher he was and I am afraid that if the Phillies bring him back, we will end up being very disappointed. Of course, I could be wrong. As for Harper, he certainly would add to the offense, but again, I really don't think he will end up being worth anywhere near what he likely will get in his next contract.

[zambonir]

The appeal of Hamels at this point is he comes cheap. Really cheap, perhaps. With that $6 million buyout for next year and his recent performance he shouldn't be worth much more than Roberto Hernandez (never mind that both those guys are on the team now), maybe a tick more than Jeremy Hellickson the year the Phillies failed to move him. Work him into the rotation, see if he makes a difference against lefty-heavy teams and if he's good enough to crack the playoff rotation you just improved the bullpen too (and even if he isn't you might have improved the bullpen with him).

And if you still think he has something, negotiate his option/buyout into a more manageable deal.

But, he's not only the lefty out there right now and he's certainly not the only big-name starter the Phillies might be associated with going forward.

[zambonir]

Ken Rosenthal (Ken_Rosenthal)

[andyb]

Familia on verge of getting traded to unknown team

Looks to be the A's.

[DurhamBull]

Sure, it could be done. But my question was, do you really think both sides would actually do it? And are we really taking the ESPN writer's second-hand conjecture that seriously? "At least two or three famous names" can mean just about anything.

Yep, I was thinking the same. Tinker, Evers, and Chance are three famous names but they won't do much to help the team.

[VoteForKalas]

ESPN has an interesting column up right now with a summation of all 30 teams, where they are right now and where they are headed. It projects the Phils to win 88 games and make the playoffs and is surprisingly positive about the team and its season.

However, it was this line that really captured my imagination...it was written AFTER the Machado deal yet wrote that within the next 12 months this team was going to acquire 2-3 VERY famous players.

Curious who you think they were talking about? Cole Hamels in a trade? Machado as a free agent [don't believe this will happen, I think he stays in LA or goes to the Yankees]? Harper as a free agent?

Thoughts on who they are talking about?

My question would be why signing "famous players" is the goal for the Phillies?

It may be Middleton's fantasy, but that does not mean it makes sense for our baseball team's success

This is why you hire and pay baseball people to run your franchise. If Middleton is interfering with the baseball decisions, he needs to stop.

[zambonir]

John Middleton, the Phillies managing partner, is aggressive and eager to win. But he is also levelheaded. He has been portrayed in some media reports as looking to make a splash.

MacPhail scoffed at that.

“John wants to win,” MacPhail said. “John wants to sustain winning. But John is not an ‘excite the town at any cost’ guy. My view is that he’s smart and he’s realistic. I think I’ve done a good job of explaining the importance of an organization and progress and he’s seen that. He’s not willing to give up too much of that just to make a splash. Someone wrote the other day that ownership wants to make a splash. Let me tell you something about John Middleton. He’s not a ‘splash’ guy for something that doesn't make sense. I can promise you that.”

Phils president talks team's rise to contention, poor attendance

[Austinfan]

I believe Middleton's level headed, he didn't interfere when Klentak played it cool with Darvish and Arrieta, and got the deal he wanted at the risk of "not making a splash." Same with trading for Machado, Klentak stuck to his reservation price.

The key to good deals is to determine your reservation price before you negotiate (i.e. the value the player has to you which determines the maximum you'll pay in salary and/or assets) and sticking to that in the heat of the battle. If you're not willing to walk away from the table you'll get screwed left and right.

[LoneStarPhan]

I watched the Phillies chase famous names after the 1964 crash and it took ten years to recover.

I do believe that serious and sensible baseball professionals are using analytics and making sound decisions.

I am very optimistic.

[flyers19rw]

Rosenthal is claiming that the Mets received a million dollars in international money with this deal. Isn't there a limit on how much can be traded and its a lot less than that?

[julio]

Rosenthal is claiming that the Mets received a million dollars in international money with this deal. Isn't there a limit on how much can be traded and its a lot less than that?

No.

This is governed by Attachment 46 to the Basic Agreement (the CBA - if you're so inclined, you can find it here (PDF).

The limitations are: 1) a club may only acquire additional International bonus pool (IBP) up to 75% of it's initial allocation; and 2) IBP may only be assigned (traded) in increments of $250k, unless a club has only a smaller increment available. But there's no restriction on how many $250k increments may be assigned in a single transaction.

[flyers19rw]

Thanks for the clarification. I was under the impression that there was a $250,000 limit per trade. I guess that the now Mets are going to go heavy into the international market.

[tom81]

I think the team that makes the most sense to trade with now are the Mets. José Bautista has actually played pretty well for them .7 War, 118 wRC+, and he plays RF and 3B. Altherr has/is struggling and Bautista would be a reasonably priced rental who fits and could split duties with Williams, give you Franco insurance and upgrade your bench.

The other trade that makes some sort of sense would be to channel Klentak's inner RA and do a clone of the 2009 Cliff Lee trade. You put this team into the post season with a rotation of deGrom, Nola, Arrieta, Eflin and rotation stacks up with any of the other teams.

I'm also thinking that with the return of Neshek and the performance of Austin Davis we might not be looking at bullpen help now. We also will probably not look for an upgrade at SS/3B and just let the kids play.

[EDmuch]

Interesting ideas about the Mets. Bautista is probably attainable and would be a good bench fit as you suggested. But I wonder if the price for deGrom would be just too high.

[Austinfan]

A low cost move to strengthen the bench is all I see happening, with Garcia returned, Neshak healthy, Irvin and De Los Santos in AAA pitching well, and Ranger Suarez in Lehigh, I don't see too many pitchers out there who would help. Keep an eye out on Tyler Gilbert, He's been under the radar, but LH RP is a 6th rd pick who's been pitching well this season. With doubleheaders lining up, depth at AAA may become more important for a stretch run than a slight increase in quality in the ML.

[zambonir]

Aside from the in-division thing (surely we could have gotten Familia, who knows if they wanted him or if the Mets didn't want to deal) I kind of think the Mets, given their ownership and lack of GM, might not be competent/smart enough to trade DeGrom. They can probably still get just as much for him in the off-season too. And the Phillies might be just as reluctant to trade, say, Medina and De Los Santos to the Mets as the Mets would be to send DeGrom to CBP.

But if they do make a move for the rotation, controllable does still make the most sense, unless the rental can be had for very little.

With Quinn and Crawford in the picture, the question is, do you just give up on Altherr by including him in a trade? Obviously he still has upside, and value as a 4th or 5th OF, but even with a five-man bench there's not going to be room for everybody if you acquire someone like Bautista and also want to use Quinn. Though, with Quinn and Crawford you don't really need a utility guy, whether it's Florimon or Valentin.