2018 Trade Deadline rumors/speculation

[Squire]

I get that we overvalue our prospects argument. But in the mid-2000s there was a constant strain of "we overvalue our prospects" arguments when the Pirates were asking for Chase Utley and then Ryan Howard as we walked away from deals for mediocre starting pitching.

Anyway, the Padres just traded LHP Brad Hand to the Indians for Top Prospect Francisco Mejia

[Lawman]

Ken Rosenthal (Ken_Rosenthal)

[allentown]

I think there is a lot of truth in this. The Phillies should play both Crawford and Kingery, when Crawford is healthy. Altherr needs more playing time. There is a danger of the young pitching wearing down due to too many IP, but apart from that, I think we need to stay with what we have and evaluate the suitability and readiness of the internal talent. Stripping the farm for a pennant run hurts the future and often doesn't help the pennant/WS chase. The current team has chemistry.

The 2008 team won a WC, without quite enough talent on paper. Over the succeeding seasons the Phillies added more and more big name talent. The team went less and less far in the post-season. The 2008 team was not as talented as the 2009-2011 teams, but it was the won that won the WS.

[zambonir]

Damn the Hand rumors came and went before I could even catch up on this thread. But he's controllable and they got two players.

As for overvaluing prospects of course in the end the O's will be lucky if two of those five players hit, and even that might be high. But this team is not the 2008-2011 team (and the high price paid for Freddy Garcia, which included a still-developing Gavin Floyd as well, was for a full season of him. Oops). It's not time to go all-in on a rental. If the front office didn't have faith in Machado hitting the open market they might have raised their bid but it really sounds like Medina simply didn't trump Diaz and the only other move there at the top would have been Sixto (or Medina + Haseley).

The main reason the Phillies don't miss too many of their prospects from those past trades is, of course, that TINSAAPP. Carrasco hit but Jason Knapp and Kyle Drabek, who had considerable value at the time (though Knapp's health was already in question) both busted. They traded Happ for Oswalt and they could make a trade like that right now if they wanted to (for Happ, even!). I would include Travis D'Arnaud on a list of players who did pan out. And later, Jared Cosart, Villar and Domingo Martinez all proved to be valuable.

This team also has a lot of money. If it's August 20 and it still looks like they could make a World Series run and certain players still look like they aren't going to get there this year, there will be people out there who clear waivers.

[EDmuch]

I would include D'Arnaud on the list of those who did not pan out. I agree he has stuck in MLB, but he has been a pretty mediocre catcher.

Anyway, I hope we do not give up much of anything for Moustakas.

[EDmuch]

Seems to me that Britton, Hamels and Happ are the other likely trade targets for us.

[Patchmk88]

I don’t want Moustakas at all. Would rather let Franco play out the season.

[Austinfan]

I think the difference was the difference between a bottom ten and a top five farm system.
How many of the top ten prospects from a decade ago would break our top twenty today?

But the Hamels trade should be a warning not to count on "names" putting you over the top:

Texas got 1.6 WAR in 12 starts after the trade, 5.0, 2.7 and 0.9 this year.
2 good playoff starts in 2015, 1 bad start in 2016.
Lost the LDS both years, 2016 they won 95 games, then have been in a tailspin since.
Kept Gallo (hitting .197), traded Williams, Chirinos (34) is their C.
Alfaro and Williams are starting for the Phillies, Eickhoff put up 6 WAR before his freak injury, Thompson has bounced around. The $23M that would have gone to Hamels now goes to Arrieta.

[EDmuch]

The FO seems to have it out for Franco. I find it hard to think that they have ever seriously considered Moustakas as an improvement worth the cost..

[zambonir]

d'Arnaud's issue was also health, I suspect (maybe there's no such thing as a catching prospect either). He certainly did a lot better than all the other catchers the Phillies traded away!

Barring a clean-up hitter, seems to me what this team needs is a Matt Stairs type. The four-man bench makes it tougher, but it could be done: get someone to replace Plouffe and then let Crawford just be the utility guy (replacing Valentin) when he comes back. If he's good enough to take starts away from Altherr and Williams that's okay too.

It would be nice to see Quinn in September and he can make a bid for the playoff roster but he doesn't look like any kind of answer before then.

[DurhamBull]

The Phillies should play both Crawford and Kingery, when Crawford is healthy. Altherr needs more playing time.

Where would you play them? I'm sorry Crawford is hurt, but one benefit is that his absence decreases pressure on Kapler to find playing time for all of his IFs, which in turn forces the Phils to not give up on Franco.

I think Altherr is playing way below his skill level, but I would rather give Hoskins or Herrera a day of rest than bench penalize Williams when he is stepping up his game.

None of the young non-pitching talent has really surged forward (yet) to force the Phils to put their bats in the lineup, so the team still has to juggle to see what they have.

[David_Criss]

At one time we have thought Altherr was the next Jason Michaels and at one time we have thought Altherr is easily replaceable and his time is coming to a close...
Franco is just now 25. Save a cup of coffee, he has been a regular at the big league level the past four-years at ages 25, 24, 23 and 22. Cozens is 24. Altherr turns 28 this winter.
Moustakas is about as good as it gets right now for available 3B and while he has a couple more homers, Franco is hitting a lot better than moose.

[Austinfan]

I want to stick with Franco because we're finally seeing real progress, he's taking more pitches and hitting outside pitches to RF instead of pulling everything - and because he's having success with this new approach, maybe he'll stick with it until it becomes second nature. He's got power and a quick bat, and that's a great combination if he learns how to hit.

[andyb]

Where would you play them? I'm sorry Crawford is hurt, but one benefit is that his absence decreases pressure on Kapler to find playing time for all of his IFs, which in turn forces the Phils to not give up on Franco.

L/R platoon at SS maybe. Once a week one of them spells Franco plus defensive substitutions. I am doubtful that Franco has turned a corner, but if he has, improving SS with a platoon would at least help the team.

[David_Criss]

I am with you Austinfan. I just don't see a whole lot of upgrades that would be available out there this year.

RF: Williams and Altherr - Williams is starting to put it together.
Possible upgrades available - Castellanos, Detroit; McCutchen, San Fran; Rasario, Minnesota
McCutchen would cost the least as he is a free agent to be. Castellanos is controllable through 2019 and Rasario is first time arbitration eligible this year

3B: It's not like Kris Bryant is available. Is Matt Carpenter an upgrade? If Colorado goes on a loosing streak, you could see what Arenado would cost, but I don't see them trading him.

Bench: Valentin and Altherr could both be upgraded because right now Plouff is really your "weapon" on the bench.
The Phillies could look at Matt Duffy in Tampa, Billy Hamilton in Cincinnati (would be nice to have a speed threat) or Jankowski in San Diego

SS: Crawford has never really hit above AA ball and Kingery is playing out of position as a rookie. While it isn't ideal for Kingery to be playing SS - that could really screw with a kid to suddenly bench him, in spite of his low OBP. - And I am looking long term, not go for broke, because they are one player away from winning the WS this year. But I do like Salisbury's opinion of Escobar from Minnesota

Bullpen: Morgan's last few outings have been encouraging. Hunter, Rios, Neris and Leiter have been a disaster this year. Salisbury mentions Familia, but do you think the Mets would trade to an NL East rival? Adding Happ/Hamels or Britton would be a nice addition

[zambonir]

This article argues that the Phillies are so bad defensively that they should just address that. It says they are -8 in defensive runs saved at 3B and -11 at SS, so the Marlins' Miguel Rojas would be an upgrade (while the bat would be a wash compared to Kingery).

It's not sexy, but defensive upgrades at the deadline could...

But that assumes winning is more important than continuing to develop and shake out this group of players.

I do think Crawford would help, a couple of starts at 3B, a couple of starts at SS, hopefully he returns with the same on-base groove he was finding last time. But he might still be a month away.

I dont think playing time is an issue unless they decide to acquire two bats, then roster space is an issue.

[allentown]

They have Franco, Crawford, Kingery, Hernandez to play 3 positions. The guy who doesn't start pinch hits. Each guy loses about 4 AB per week -- not a big deal at all.

[andyb]

If Donaldson got healthy I might take a chance with him. He looks like he'll be back in time to play a handful of games before the deadline. I just imagine that moving his salary along with getting a second tier prospect might be enough to get him. Assuming Toronto still is OK with Vlad Jr. at 3B next year, I doubt they would offer a QO to Donaldson in the offseason.

This lineup does still need a power bat in the middle. No idea if Donaldson can be 80% of what he was, but Moustakas just does not give us much beyond Franco. Crawford might help, but it will only make a difference with the team if it is at SS. (and yes BTW he hit very well last year in AAA and the majors).

[zambonir]

Crawford will play, but Hernandez almost never get a day off.

And I do think Crawford would still improve the defense at 3B, just not the offense. But as a platoon, for both 3B and 2B, maybe he would a little, if he can handle RHPs better than the other guys. And yes, we have three small samples on him in the majors and two of them are good. Whether he can come back from this latest injury on the same track, who knows, but hopefully the beginning of the season slump is behind him.

I would think the Phillies can at least equal the QO comp value, even if it's partly monetary. I would almost prefer to see Donaldson go into August

[California_Dreamin]

ESPN has an interesting column up right now with a summation of all 30 teams, where they are right now and where they are headed. It projects the Phils to win 88 games and make the playoffs and is surprisingly positive about the team and its season.

However, it was this line that really captured my imagination...it was written AFTER the Machado deal yet wrote that within the next 12 months this team was going to acquire 2-3 VERY famous players.

Curious who you think they were talking about? Cole Hamels in a trade? Machado as a free agent [don't believe this will happen, I think he stays in LA or goes to the Yankees]? Harper as a free agent?

Thoughts on who they are talking about?