2018 Phillies Spring Training News/Notes/Discussion

[Austinfan]

Hutchinson is a AAAA pitcher, basically an older version of Lively with no upside left. 90-91 with average secondary pitches.
They'll give him a chance to shop around, but my bet is he's insurance against injuries, if the LHV rotation is full they'll probably let him walk.
His stuff is "starter only", so I doubt they'd keep him over Leiter, who has similar velocity, a better selection of secondary pitches and some upside with that splitter.

Florimon or Flaherty are stopgaps, they might just keep Valentin and try to send him down when they bring Kingery up, or trade Hernandez. But these aren't guys you lose sleep over losing.

There is zero chance they expose Thompson.

[julio]

If you release or remove him from the 40 man in any way he must be replaced with a catcher, only having 2 on the 40 man really doesnt work. Once one is hurt (they will be) you have to add one to fill in, and since we don't have a catcher that is knocking on the door of the 40 man at the moment it is foolish.

It may be foolish. I'm reporting what I see being speculated in the media.

That said...it depends on what you want in a third catcher. If you're looking primarily for a bat, you might hang on to Rupp. If you want that guy - the one you call up to sit on the bench, start 1-2 games a week - to be a good defender, then frankly, given the Phils' current personnel, I think you might want Logan Moore. Not a lot of bat, but he's a good receiver... and to paraphrase Judy Haynes, he's "awfully available."

[zambonir]

Yeah actually coming up with a third catcher wouldn't be difficult, Logan Moore or Nick Rickles (already optioned to AAA) would be fine. But you'd still have to get him on the 40 if and when the need arose.

Here is the Gelb story on all this stuff

More development or a spot on the big-league bench? Phillies...

One player whose 40-man roster spot appears to be in peril is Cameron Rupp. Two sources said the Phillies have made the 29-year-old catcher available to other teams. If they cannot find a match, the Phillies could release Rupp and pay him one-fourth of his non-guaranteed $2.05 million deal.

If they are willing to trade him, does that mean they are likely willing to not have a third catcher on the 40? Maybe, but the part about releasing him does seem speculative.

[andyb]

Hutchison putting up a 4.10 FIP in his two healthy years is a little more than nothing. Remember the league average ERA in 2017 was 4.35 so if we are saying Hutchison can be a league average starter then it is worth something. Of course Lively basically did that last year, but with a low K rate (5.3 vs Hutchison at 8.3 for his career).

Hutchison does throw a bit harder than Lively (92.5 vs 91.5). Not much of a difference but some and as a sinker baller he is not built on great velocity anyway. My guess is they would love to get him to AAA but he is also the type of pitcher that could find a spot on another team with less depth.

The bright side of the Tommy Joseph waivers - if it leads to Tocci being sent back, Tocci is not on the 40-man roster and gets one more free year of development. 432 OPS for Tocci at the moment so I think he is coming back.

[baseballoldie]

Wishing Tommy Joseph the best with the Rangers - they just claimed him.

[phillychuck]

Eshelman makes the roster decision easy today--pitched well for 3 innings, then just lost it with a lead in the bottom of the9th.

[julio]

Hutchison putting up a 4.10 FIP in his two healthy years is a little more than nothing.

I agree - wouldn't characterize Hutchison as "nothing." On the other hand, I don't think we can characterize his 2014-15 as "really good," either.

Per B-R, the NL average ERA in 2017 was 4.29, WHIP was 1.351. AL averages were 4.38, 1.332 . ERA+ for both leagues was 101 (it's always 100 or 100, since it's basically a comparison to average). B-R doesn't provide league average FIP, so I can't cite those figures. Hutchison's 2-year numbers are marginally poorer than the league averages shown by B-R for 2017.

That said... again, I agree that he's not "nothing." As I think you agree, based on your post, he doesn't look like somebody that warrants pushing Lively (or Eflin) aside, particularly if that were to require exposing a prospect to waivers to free up a roster spot. He might make sense IF they really wanted Lively/Eflin/(Pivetta?) to get "more seasoning" in AAA, and IF they could add Hutchison without risking anything of value. But this kind of thing gets progressively harder to do, as your organization has more honest prospect talent that must be protected.

And by the way, I love "salvage" moves like the Werth acquisition (and the Eisenreich signing, lo these many years ago). But I don't see the evidence here that Hutchison is really in that category - that prior to the thumb injury, he was showing signs of being a real blue-chip player. His 2014-15 were serviceable for a back-of-the-rotation guy - but that's the definition of mediocre, not of blue-chip.

[julio]

PC - Here's the news item that might affect roster decisions. Not good new, though:

Jim Salisbury (JSalisburyNBCS)

[phillychuck]

One thing that makes Hutchison's 2014 and 2015 look pretty decent is that he was 23/24 in those years, pitching a significant innings load in the majors. Some actual blue-chip players in their late 20s and 30s start out pitching just "league average-ish" when they are young big leaguers.

[andyb]

As I think you agree, based on your post, he doesn't look like somebody that warrants pushing Lively (or Eflin) aside, particularly if that were to require exposing a prospect to waivers to free up a roster spot. He might make sense IF they really wanted Lively/Eflin/(Pivetta?) to get "more seasoning" in AAA, and IF they could add Hutchison without risking anything of value.

Only partially agree. The difference with Hutchison is that he does have slightly better stuff and more of a major league track record than Lively. One could posit that Hutchison is a 50% chance of being a league average starter and Lively only has a 30% chance.

Our problem is that we have 2 starters at the moment. Everyone else could be anywhere from a #3 to AAAA. I think the team has been impressed with Velasquez stuff even if the results are inconsistent. Where they fall on Eflin, Pivetta, Hutchison, Thompson and Lively is hard to tell. Pretty sure they want Leiter in the long man role and Eshelman never had a serious chance.

I am not saying they should keep Hutchison. Baseball-wise he might have earned it slightly. Whether that is enough to justify the roster moves is harder to tell. I sure would love to know if he would accept $100K extra to go to LHV for 2 months, maybe with an end of May major league roster opt out.

Edit - if Leiter is hurt somebody (I would pick Thompson) gets the flexible long man role at the start of the season.

[Austinfan]

Hutchinson threw that two years ago, wasn't even in the majors last year, when I watched him this spring, he was throwing 90-91, which would explain why he couldn't keep a ML job. Unlike Hellickson, he doesn't that that secondary pitch to compensate for declining velocity.

[andyb]

Velocity in one random early Spring start might not be definitive. His velocity was fine when he pitched in 2016. We have no evidence from 2017. Hard to draw the conclusion that his velocity is down from the evidence we have.

[julio]

Whether that is enough to justify the roster moves is harder to tell.

This.

These things were much easier/clearer when the alternatives were dross, and the guys "on the bubble" on the roster did not, in fact, belong on anybody's 40-man roster.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

We would have been very excited about the prospects of Drew Hutchinson a few years ago, when we were trotting Sean O'Sullivan out there for starts.

[fish]

Hutchinson threw that two years ago, wasn't even in the majors last year, when I watched him this spring, he was throwing 90-91, which would explain why he couldn't keep a ML job. Unlike Hellickson, he doesn't that that secondary pitch to compensate for declining velocity.

I’m not sure about the opinion he doesn’t have a good secondary pitch- He’s been throwing a big 85 mph
power curveball (pitchfx calls it a slider, but it’s vertical) that’s been pretty eye catching when I’ve seen him. His problem seems to be more that he’s not locating his average fastball and maybe a poor change up- I can’t say I’ve seen him throw one.

[andyb]

Spring stats - meaningless but they are much of what we have now.

Hutchison - 3.45 ERA, 15.2 IP, 11 H, 5 BB, 14 K - Pitching fairly well (lowest ERA among our 7 starters with 11 IP or more).
Velasquez - 3.48 ERA, 10.1 IP, 12 H, 0 HR, 3 BB, 12 K - Maybe he is lucky having not given up any HR, but he appears to be throwing more strikes.
Pivetta - 5.40 ERA, 4 HR, 6 BB - May be the least effective of the starting candidates
Eflin - gave up 3 HR but has a 2/11 BB/K ratio
KRod - 8 BB - Not going to Philly
Thompson - 1.74 ERA over 6 outings - they appear to be grooming him for a bullpen role

No firm conclusions. Rotation is likely Nola, Arrieta, Velasquez then if I had to pick today, Eflin and Lively. But Hutchison is really pitching well enough to be in consideration for a job. Eickhoff was at least throwing strikes and had a 0:8 BB:K ratio so there is at least something to look at positively from his Spring when he was healthy.

Knock on wood but Arrieta bringing some stability and depth to this young rotation could be very important.

[David_Criss]

No firm conclusions. Rotation is likely Nola, Arrieta, Velasquez then if I had to pick today, Eflin and Lively. But Hutchison is really pitching well enough to be in consideration for a job

Completely agree. Eshelman and Pivetta need to start at AAA. Pivetta did start 26 games last year for the Phillies and had an ERA north of 6 if memory serves, that coupled with his so-so Spring syas he is ticketed or at least should be ticketed for AAA.

I like Hutchison. I ike what he has done this Spring and I like what he did in Indianapolis last year - IMO he could be a comeback player and/or a late bloomer. He is only 27. He started 11 games at 22 with zero AAA experience. Then surprise surprise was injured in 2013. In 2014, after having just one rehab game at AAA, he started 32 games in the bigs with a respectable 4.48 ERA. He struggled at the big league level in 2015 and spent just about all of 2016 and 17 recovering and for the first time really pitching at AAA. And in 16 and 17 he started 24 and 26 games with a respectable 3.59 and 3.56 ERA respectively.

But is he better than Pivetta - yes, Lively and Eflin - if he is, it isn't better enough to burn a 40-man spot.

I think there is room for him in the pen, especially given if Leiter has to start the year on the DL.

Neris, Thompson, Garcia, Neshek, Hunter, Ramos with Milner and Morgan is probably the pen with Leiter on the DL. Does Hutchison replace Ramos at this stage of the game? This is where I think an argument can be made. Ramos has really struggled this Spring and with Arrieta not stretched out and the need for multiple bullpen innings, especially given the first couple of weeks and with Leiter's injury, then I say they need to find a 40-man spot for him and let Ramos start at AAA.

[phillychuck]

You don't want to burn assets if you don't have to, and you want to place young players where they will improve. I think the best way to do this is to put Hutchison on the big league roster and open up a 40-man spot by DFAing Florimon and using Valentin in the super-sub role. That gives Eflin and Pivetta a chance to dominate in AAA and refine their stuff. I'd go with a rotation of Nola, Arrieta, Hutchison, Velasquez and Lively (who has nothing to prove in the minors). Neris, Garcia, Neshek, Hunter, Ramos, Milner, and Morgan in the pen. That gives me a 5-man bench to start the year. Thompson works on becoming a reliever by closing in AAA. My 2 cents as of 3/20.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

The decision on Hutchinson needs to be made by Friday.

[phillychuck]

DFA Florimon, keep Hutchison.