Discussion

julio 2018-03-19 15:18:01 UTC #341

Flaherty would also require a 40-man roster move.

At this point, clearing spaces on the 40-man is seriously non-trivial. Yeah, Eickhoff could be moved to the 60-day, but would then be unavailable until about Memorial Day. That's not a trivial decision.

Beyond that? The next move appears to be to DFA Cameron Rupp. After that? If you want to propose adding a current non-roster player to the bench or the pitching staff - do us a favor and identify who you would release, or expose to waivers, to make room for that player.

Valentin, Florimon, Quinn, Lively, Eflin have the inside track on 25-man roster positions because: 1) they're not clearly better or worse than the various non-roster candidates; and 2) the organization doesn't have to sacrifice a prospect to make room for them.

You want Eshelman, Hutchison, Flaherty? To be considered, any of them has to be clearly better than on-roster alternatives... and enough better as to justify losing a prospect to a waiver claim.

Because of the roster issues, this isn't simply about "Who would be better for the month of April?" These decisions have long-term implications, that the GM needs to consider. We shouldn't lose sight of that.

andyb 2018-03-19 15:21:12 UTC #342

He is about the same size as his Dad (5'9", 180 vs 5'10", 175) and his dad hit 249 HRs playing SS mostly. Valentin's power may be developing a little later (like Galvis), but no reason to think he does not have some modest power.

andyb 2018-03-19 15:25:21 UTC #343

Given that they will need a spot for Kingery there is an argument that creating one spot now is not the worst thing they could do if they have to do it anyway 3 weeks from now (when injuries could create more flexibility).

They do have one option that is relatively easy and that is Florimon's spot. If he gets beat out by Flaherty or Rosales do we really care about keeping Florimon? Especially because he might pass through waivers anyway and it is not like both Valentin and Kingery are not future options anyway.

julio 2018-03-19 15:43:06 UTC #344

Florimon was apparently added to the roster because he had an opt-out in his contract. I wouldn't be surprised if he has further opt-out provisions in the event he is DFA'ed. Not that his opting to leave would be particularly worrisome, given the relative interchangeability with Flaherty or Rosales (or Valentin, for that matter) on the bench. So yeah, that's one spot that could be cleared - or that already has been cleared, if you consider the Alvarez DFA to be the actual risk taken here.

But that said, the organization is at the point where they don't have a bunch of junk spots on the roster any more. We're waiting to see what happens with Alvarez - whether he's traded, or claimed on waivers, or clears.

So...Joseph presumably on waivers as of this morning (he was DFA'ed seven days ago); Alvarez three days away from waivers

Florimon could be DFA'ed; Rupp could be DFA'ed (Gelb speculates about this); that could free up two roster spots. Beyond that, you're exposing prospects.

They could DFA Florimon in favor of Rosales or Flaherty... but why bother? If you posit that spot eventually belongs to Kingery, what real difference does it make which of the other three holds it down for a month or so?

David_Criss 2018-03-19 16:25:22 UTC #345

In all reality it is down to 30 for the 25-man roster.
Can Arrieta be sent to extended ST and open up a spot to begin the season? Or does he have to be on the 25-man, even though he won't be used for a couple weeks? That could bring it down to 29.
I have to think Pivetta starts at AAA that brings it down to 28.
Nine relievers aren't making the team to start with Neris, Morgan, Milner, Garcia, Neshek and Hunter being locks - it is down to Thompson, Leiter and E. Ramos that could bring it down to 27 or 26
Rosales isn't making the team. That leaves Flaherty, Florimon, Quinn and Valentin for the final spot. The team has spoken highly of Flaherty's versatility.
The team could easily keep Rupp to back up Alfaro and let Knapp handle the duties at AAA, so no need to give away Rupp, but he, Pinto and Curtis along with Florimon could be DFA to open up a slot for Flaherty or what I can see happening is Eickhoff to the 60-man and Flaherty added. Then in mid-May when Eickhoff is activated and sent to AAA, the team can decided between Rupp, Florimon or Flaherety to send packing.

andyb 2018-03-19 16:48:13 UTC #346

Because it exposes none of your prospects in a 40-man move. Maybe by the time you want Kingery you have more 40-man flexibility. This move allows you to pick the player you want now even if it only ends up being for a month. Better than losing a reliever we might need later (or a catcher like Rupp).

julio 2018-03-19 17:00:06 UTC #347

Huh? I ask, "What real difference does it make which of the other three [Florimon, Rosales, Flaherty] holds it [roster spot] down for a month or so?" And you reply "Because it exposes none of your prospects in a 40-man move."

Or were you just ignoring that question, and responding only to the first part ["They could DFA Florimon in favor of Rosales or Flaherty... but why bother?"] -- which is to say, not responding to my point at all?

I certainly agree that if they really think Flaherty or Rosales gives them something Florimon does not, it makes more sense to swap one of them into Florimon's roster spot than to DFA somebody else. But if you read what I wrote - and what you quoted - the question was (and is), What real difference does it make who holds down that roster spot (25-man, not just 40-man, lest there be confusion) for a month or so? On what basis would they really think that any one of those three is significantly better/different than the other two?

I certainly hope you weren't responding on the assumption that I was suggesting keeping more than one of Florimon/Flaherty/Rosales on the 40-man roster. I'm not that brain-dead, and I don't see how one could draw that conclusion from what I posted.

andyb 2018-03-19 17:14:50 UTC #348

I was responding to "why bother?" which posits the move is not worth doing. Are you saying the Phillies should not pick the best player here? If they decide Valentin needs more time and Kingery should not be called up immediately what should the team do? I am arguing that they pick the best player now and worry about the roster in a month.

That is a very valid reason. Not sure what you "Huh?" means other than being unnecessarily argumentative. The real difference is it lets the Phillies have the player they want now for a move that costs them only the player they do not want. It is a real difference for a month and lots of things can change in a month regarding roster spots. You are positing that there is no difference between the players. The team may not agree with that.

julio 2018-03-19 17:24:12 UTC #349

But you didn't address that. "Because it exposes none of your prospects in a 40-man move." is not responsive to my post, in any way. I didn't suggest, even implicitly, that any prospect should be exposed.

I'm saying it's not clear to me that any one of these three is a "best player" relative to the other two.

Do you think I disagree with that? I suggest you re-read what I wrote above - I'll quote it here:

You asked:

"Huh?" was my reaction to your leading off your reply to my post with something that was utterly irrelevant to what I posted... to what looked like a straw man, frankly.

andyb 2018-03-19 17:46:51 UTC #350

But you are not the Phillies. They brought in Flaherty and Rosales because they thought they could help the team. You are assuming they cannot.

Exposing no prospects IS a valid move. You yourself said "What real difference does it make who holds down that roster spot (25-man, not just 40-man, lest there be confusion) for a month or so?". My response IS EXACTLY RESPONSIVE TO THAT QUESTION. I said it DOES make a difference if the Phillies think one of the players is better. You disagree but that is YOUR opinion on the utility players.

So it appears that perhaps you did not really read what I wrote.

zambonir 2018-03-19 18:17:04 UTC #351

Flaherty has to go on the 40 this Thursday so we'll know quickly. I don't see how you only go with two catchers on the 40, the last thing you want is to have to DFA someone you didn't want to lose a month from now because you suddenly need to call up a catcher (Santana certainly won't be playing there). Now at least you have choices.

I don't know how they would do it but it seems to me there is still a chance they figure it out and keep both Flaherty and Florimon. Or maybe Flaherty has interest from other teams (I've seen the O's may just want him back) and they will just wish him well this week. He was obviously a personal favorite of the front office because of the O's history.

They could also trade a pitcher, a la Asher. Not sure who that would be, but if Eshelman is looking like the 7th option (Eflin being the #6) and the bullpen is already full somebody (Lively? Thompson?) ultimately has no future here..

Rosales has no opt-out so he's headed for LV presumably. It does make sense that the Phillies might not be allowed to DFA Florimon (at least in spring training), they'd just have to release him so he could pick his new team, but there may not actually be one which wants him, he seems to like the Phillies and vice-versa.

julio 2018-03-19 18:35:12 UTC #352

Given this, I agree with you - we'll know what they prefer by Thursday. They can simply stash Rosales, so there's no reason to sacrifice anybody else on the roster now to hang onto both Florimon AND Flaherty. Gelb has suggested that Rupp might be released (he didn't talk about DFA/outright), but I wouldn't endorse doing that to make room for a third veteran backup utility guy.

bigegypt0417 2018-03-19 18:38:59 UTC #353

tommy joseph claimed by the rangers...

zambonir 2018-03-19 18:44:03 UTC #354

Maybe he'll take Tocci's spot

julio 2018-03-19 18:45:11 UTC #355

There's some speculation about that - if Joseph makes the 25-man roster, does that push Tocci off it? We'll see.

zambonir 2018-03-19 18:51:28 UTC #356

I guess they would release him as a courtesy - lets him pick his new team and they'd be on the hook for most of the $ too?

But the fact that this is even being discussed suggests that both the Phillies and all of MLB have a really, really low opinion of Rupp. Which is not news I guess.

julio 2018-03-19 18:57:18 UTC #357

25% of the $2.05 million contract. It's not guaranteed.

If they instead asked waivers on him, and he were claimed (he would be; Tommy Joseph was just claimed), they would be completely out from under the contract. So if they release him instead, they're essentially eating $500k as a courtesy to Rupp... and subsidizing whatever team ultimately signed him, since that $500k might very well mean Rupp signs somewhere else for the ML minimum (more or less).

Not to say they wouldn't do that, of course. They very well might. Or it may all be academic, and they just option him, keeping him on the roster. We'll see.

phillychuck 2018-03-19 18:59:53 UTC #358

Drew Hutchison pitched 5 good innings today against a pretty solid Red Sox lineup. He's been decent all spring. What's his role going forward? Is he a veteran innings-eater for the phils? He's had a couple of really good years in the majors and is still young. Was hurt last two seasons--bad thumb injury that affected his grip on the ball. Seems to be recovered now.

bkeich 2018-03-19 19:04:47 UTC #359

Releasing Rupp has no value.

If you release or remove him from the 40 man in any way he must be replaced with a catcher, only having 2 on the 40 man really doesnt work. Once one is hurt (they will be) you have to add one to fill in, and since we don't have a catcher that is knocking on the door of the 40 man at the moment it is foolish.

Best option:
Flaherty, etc. are all basically the same guy so either Florimon or the one that beats him out, but not both. Honestly, that would be my first choice rather than looking at other spots on the roster.

Lesser options:
Zac Curtis, 25 year old reliever would also be a possibility as we have too many relievers on our 40 man, but that is a stretch. No real need to remove a guy that might have some value.
Hate to give up on Jake Thompson, but he would be next I suspect.
Same with Mark Leiter, Jr., but he is 26 and probably not going to get much better, which is really a AAAA pitcher.
Yaksel Rios? Not really a need player

julio 2018-03-19 19:11:13 UTC #360

Well, he had a couple of years in the majors before the injury, but I think "really good" is overstating things. Two-year (2014-15) ERA of 4.97, FIP of 4.1, ERA+ of 79, WHIP of 1.361.

Eickhoff's career FIP is exactly the same as the above - 4.10. All of Eickhoff's other career numbers (ERA, ERA+, WHIP) are better than Hutchison's two best seasons.

Hutchison could be a serviceable back -of-the-rotation guy... but I think only if you don't want those starts/innings going to a pitcher who might develop into something better than what Hutchison is right now. Which is to say, you don't want those innings going to Eflin or Lively (or Pivetta, after Eickhoff returns). If you're only focused on 2018, you might make that choice. If you're focused on balancing 2018 against the long-term improvement of the franchise, I'm not sure Hutchison would be the right choice.