2018 Phillies Spring Training News/Notes/Discussion

[Austinfan]

Eickhoff has proven himself, even his bad season last year was 0.7 to 1.9 WAR in 24 starts.
While his ERA dropped from 3.65 to 4.71, his FIP went from 4.19 to 4.30, while his BABIP from .278 to .328
He turns 28 in July, not exactly over the hill quite yet.
If he can start 30 games and put up 1-2 WAR, he's a solid #4/#5, if he can regain his 2016 form, a #3 starter.

Rotation will probably be Nola, Arrieta, Eickhoff, Velasquez, and Lively.
Lehigh: Pivetta, Thompson, Eflin, Anderson, Eshelman, Taveras
Reading: Kilome, De Los Santos, Irvin, Waguespack, El Garcia, Viza

If Pivetta has an option left they'll probably want him to work on his secondary pitches in AAA.
Thompson has a new motion that needs to be smoothed out, same with Eflin.
Lively is more of a finished product, I think they want to see if last year was a fluke or whether he can be a solid back of the rotation innings eater.

[EDmuch]

A 4.71 ERA is not proving yourself, if anything, it is disproving yourself.

[andyb]

Quinn 0-1, 2 BB, SB playing SS today. Anyone see how well he looked defensively? Then Valentin subbed and hit a 3-run HR. Kids are looking to win those utility roles....

[donaldorc]

Then Valentin subbed and hit a 3-run HR. Kids are looking to win those utility roles....

What do y’all think about Valentín? Does he have a chance? Not.a name I’ve heard much about.

[allentown]

If he shows he can be barely adequate at SS, then he has a chance. If he shows that he isn't plausible at SS, then he has no chance.

[zambonir]

I want to see a fair, equal competition. This idea that because Eickhoff had one good season and one horrible season entitles him to some kind of priority is ridiculous.

You could say the same about Franco. And unike Franco the stats AF mentioned (FIP and BABIP) show he was better than his non-peripheral stats. In both cases, track record and potential (or future trade value) count too. And breaking camp with the best possible roster still isn't the only (or even main) goal, otherwise they'd have signed another pitcher and a 3B.

It's the job of the coaching staff to put all of this stuff in context. One season or one spring training are not big enough samples for anyone. But Eickhoff wasn't terrible last year. He wasn't good, but he wasn't terrible. And some of that was due to injury. Pivetta and Eflin actually were terrible.

In all three cases there are good reasons to think that adjustments and coaching and health will lead to better outcomes for them but there's no reason to prefer one over the other. Especially when we know Eickhoff is throwing a new pitch, that's getting hammered. He'll either fix it or he'll stop throwing it. And if either of those things don't happen and he loses his first five starts, then sure, make a move.

On top of that, for me Eickhoff is almost like a Hellickson, let him eat some innings, because I think Eflin actually needs to succeed in AAA, he (and Thompson and Lively and Pivetta) has dealt with premature call-ups and yo-yoing while never being healthy, and he'll be back up quick.

[Austinfan]

Eshelman looked good today, but he needs a year in AAA ball.
FB was mostly 89, touched 90, but hitters weren't able to square up on him.
Slider, Change and slow curve, good break on the slider.
His secondary pitches are average right now, so he needs to sharpen them.
But he's better than Tyler Cloyd, who fooled AAA hitters but lacked the command to pull that off in the Show.

He'll have to improve incrementally across the board to make it, but he keeps hitters off balance, doesn't leave the ball out over the plate, and can mix up his pitches. It can work, but you have to be special to pull it off.

[gmwannabe]

again, i know it is spring training, but nick williams looks lost. Quinney looked pretty good. can fly. a lot if the phils' bats still look slow.
gm

[Squire]

I'm now at the point where I would pick Valentin over Rosales and Flaherty. Save the 40 man spot

[andyb]

Guys like Eshelman (and Leiter) that rely on command and control and changing speeds are often ahead of the hitters in Spring Training. Guys that throw harder take a little longer to find their command. Eshelman is what he is. Nice depth arm but I don't think he'll get many chances until we go through 8 or 9 starters this year (including Lively, Eflin, Thompson).

[phillychuck]

Lively is really the guy that gets no respect. He's really been a very consistent winner and innings-eater. Hides the ball well coming out of his hand, which makes his stuff play up. I'm pretty confident he'll be a decent MLB pitcher if he doesn't get hurt and gets a long enough opportunity.

[zambonir]

Maybe analytics, shifts and/or an unjuiced ball will make it Ben Lively's time, but that strikeout rate...

[bigegypt0417]

Buster Olney believes Phillies could snag Bryce Harper from Nationals

[zambonir]

Now that they are pals with Boras (who also appeared at the press conference, SMDH) you can't rule it out.

[Austinfan]

If I'm spending big money on a FA, Machado makes more sense than Harper, we have plenty of OF prospects coming up the next couple years by the time we move Hoskins to 1B.

[zambonir]

Haha c'mon, if the Phillies can get Bryce Harper there's no current OF or OF prospect who is not expendable in some way.

Sure, Machado makes more sense but remember he's also a shortstop again.

They definitely want one or the other, is the thing - we've been hearing that for three years and this week's interviews with Middleton only make that more clear - so better to have two options than one.

[Austinfan]

Though it won't surprise me at all if they make noises, get the media excited, then swoop down and grab someone else.

[fish]

The Yankee's can't sign him- with Judge and Stanton there wouldn't be anybody to play center.

I don't think the Cubs will because it seems like a deal like that would prohibit them from being able to sign Bryant (and the pitching they are going to need to keep trying to collect to support their offense).

The Dodgers could I guess- but it doesn't seem like they 'need' him and they'll have to shell out another big contract to Kershaw next year. If Kershaw blows up this year, then i could see the Dodgers throwing down for Harper.

The National's could, but I can't recall another superstar player that made it to free agency and was looking for a payout sign with his original team.

Strange Boston never seems to get a mention. I could see them giving Jackie the boot, moving Betts to center and becoming a favorite for Harper.

[andyb]

And there are other third base options if we desperately need one. Nolan Arenado will be available a year after Machado and he could also be a $25 million arbitration guy next year. Josh Donaldson could be available on a shorter deal like Arrieta (and if we are in contention at the deadline and need a 3B, maybe we would think about his this year if he is available).

We should not obsess on where our prospect depth is when the prospects are B level prospects. We have no certain above average OF prospects in our system now. Between Ortiz and Haseley and Moniak we probably get one above average starter but none of them are good enough to not get a Bryce Harper. Just like none of our non-Nola young starters was really good enough for us to not want Arrieta.

[fish]

And there are other third base options if we desperately need one. Nolan Arenado will be available a year after Machado

Arenado has 3 more years until free agency (after the 2020 season).