Discussion

andyb 2018-03-09 18:15:29 UTC #241

If I had to guess the Phillies may not decide this utility spot based on 40-man considerations. I think they may pick the best SS defender. Not 100% sure who that might be but probably Florimon or Valentin. Rosales is probably the best offensively now, but I think his defense is worse than the rest.

allentown 2018-03-09 18:59:00 UTC #242

This is where the guy with options or a contract which does not liberate him if he starts the season in AAA, gets to be injury back-up at AAA, while the guy with the contract that makes him a free man if he doesn't make the team makes the team if he is good enough. That's all other things being equal, as in the performance of these guys in ST and their demonstrated defensive skills at multiple positions are comparable. Barring a trade, it's also what lands at least Rupp and Joseph and very possibly Quinn at AAA. This is the last bench spot we are talking about, so defensive flexibility is important, but so is allowing the organization to hold onto an extra player and retaining MLB-ready reserves in Allentown.

gmwannabe 2018-03-09 19:07:50 UTC #243

i'm watching this game today and seeing eickhoff getting lit up by the pirates. not good. i know it's spring training but i just don't see him succeeding. maybe it's me, but i don't think they win with him. i know he'll be in the rotation but i don't expect too many wins when he starts. i'd rather have verlander in the rotation.
gm

zambonir 2018-03-09 19:14:43 UTC #244

It doesn't seem like the Phillies are going to have a serious 40-man crunch, especially if Quinn makes the team and Hutchison does not. Which is what Matt Breen wrote today. He also wrote that K-Rod won't make it, he's in the 80s. And Milner seems to have Abad beat,

But it is at 40. So if they sign a FA pitcher and take one utility guy, two people do have to go. Plus Kingery's not on it. Is anybody already headed to the 60-day DL?

andyb 2018-03-09 20:01:25 UTC #245

Nobody hurt at the moment. I guess they have lots of so-so options on who to remove. A Rupp trade could clear a spot. Curtis is obvious if he does not get the second LHP (or Milner if Curtis wins the job). Alvarez is probably more vulnerable than Valentin. I'd prefer waiving Joseph to Cozens among power hitters. Beyond that it is relievers like Pinto and Rios and Arano that we probably will need at some point.

If the team tries to stretch the roster with 10-day DL moves there is really not a whole lot of flexibility on the 40-man. So I guess I just talked myself into keeping Valentin if at all possible. Probably DFA Joseph first as well to get a spot. Would also love if Hutchison agreed to go to AAA if he did not make the roster with a little extra incentive that he would likely get one of the first promotions (or maybe a July opt out if that did not happen).

EDmuch 2018-03-09 20:09:07 UTC #246

Eickhoff has been terrible for a year now. He has lost more velocity than Arrietta. ( Dig at AF). He is now nothing more than a junk ball pitcher. He really should not be counted on for anything.

zambonir 2018-03-09 20:20:30 UTC #247

Yeah I don't know that Hutchison has an opt-out though I'm sure they'd release him if another team had something for him. If he made the team, you'd probably start to think about trading someone a la Alec Asher.

Forgot about Curtis. DFAing Joseph makes sense. I'd think he would be traded (albeit not for much), or he might even clear.

Don't really think trading Rupp opens a space on the 40 'cause you'd probably still want a third catcher on it.

allentown 2018-03-09 20:21:14 UTC #248

I think we likely can be ok with him as a #4/5 starter, but if he is expected to be a #2/3 in a rotation headed by Nola, then it's going to be another long summer. The rotation looks a lot better with Arrieta slotted in at #2 and all of the young pitchers fighting it out for the last 3 spots. They really are all question marks and if the coaches can turn half of the question marks into decent members of the rotation, that really is an A+ coaching performance. We have top-rated kids who may arrive in the 2019 rotation, but none of the kids competing in 2018 are high-expectation prospects; they all have major holes to close and some have health questions lingering.

allentown 2018-03-09 20:24:02 UTC #249

Here is an article from Nate Silver's 538 on the Phillies rebuild. FAs are a quicker route to contention, according to the model used, and just weighting for the farm to put together a contending core needing FA just to push you over the top doesn't get there in 5 years.

EDmuch 2018-03-09 21:07:15 UTC #250

Interesting 538 article. Gives some hope too.

Austinfan 2018-03-09 21:13:29 UTC #251

And it pretty much suggests that next year is when you start spending serious money.

To me you want the farm system to deliver enough talent to get to .500 or so before you rack up long-term commitments in free agency, because you'll have about a 5 year window and you don't want to start too early and run up against salary cap constraints during that period.

The best GMs recognize when that window is closing and "reload" a year early rather than wait a year or two late, when the team is old and trapped against the salary cap - at that point you're almost forced to rebuild.

andyb 2018-03-09 21:42:36 UTC #252

It does not really say that at all though.

"a team in Philadelphia’s current situation could ramp up its spending within five years to match the Phillies’ payrolls during their late 2000s/early 2010s heyday and expect to hit about 92 wins by 2022 even if it gradually allows its farm system to slip into the league’s bottom five within five years. By contrast, a comparable team that takes a slower approach, keeping its farm system strong but spending more modestly wouldn’t even crack 86 wins after five years."

It speculates on spending big on next year's free agent class but it really is saying that now is the time to start spending. It also says you "could" wait another year because of the top heavy nature of the league this year, but then in the next paragraph talks about it being time to spend and building a winning culture.

Part of the reason to spend now is to have some of the big contracts occur when overall payroll is low. The specifics on when are more about what the team needs (by position) and what free agents are available (i.e. Machado and Harper, etc.).

zambonir 2018-03-09 22:01:42 UTC #253

It basically makes the case that the Phillies are on the right track though. And they did spend this year. Could they spend more? Sure. Obviously a pitcher. And if you take the extreme version of that argument, they shouldn't wait around for all of Hoskins, Crawford, Kingery, Alfaro, Williams and Altherr to pan out, to say nothing of Franco. They could have signed Moustakas (or Frazier) and a veteran OF and possibly added 4-5 wins. Or they may need to replace a couple of those guys in 2019 or 2020 and get 4-5 wins.

The part about the farm system suggests that trades are also worth making, and they'll be making them.

phillychuck 2018-03-10 02:59:29 UTC #254

Beyond the super big names (Harper, Machado, Kershaw) next year's free agent class pretty much stinks, especially in terms of starting pitching--Pomeranz and Britton are pretty much it, unless you want to spring for a starter in his mid-30s like Gio Gonzalez. The time for the Phils to spend is now, while it's a buyer's market and the players who remain are interested in coming here.

I think Arietta will sign with us, possibly by the end of the weekend. And I'll bet it's a creative contract that gives Arietta security but offers the Phils some opt-outs.

nycphils 2018-03-10 03:48:32 UTC #255

I’d amend that somewhat -you’ve also got Dallas Keuchel as a FA, and maybe Hamels if the Rangers decline his $20m option. However, your point stands in that there aren’t so many that you can feel sure that any of them come to the Phils.

flyers19rw 2018-03-10 15:23:11 UTC #256

Looking at FA starters and their age as of FA, the three remaining SPs on this year's FA market- Arietta (32), Cobb (30), Lynn (30 and the possible top of next year's-Gio (32), Pomeranz (30), and Kuechel (30). I'd take all three of next year's over this year's. Perhaps next year is the year to spend on FA starters.

zambonir 2018-03-10 17:55:15 UTC #257

The way the class has come to them I think they should make a move, though it still seems likely they greatly prefer Arrieta and don't rate the others as highly. But next year's class isn't any better or worse. Which is kind of the point of their approach, really - they don't think free agency is a good way to acquire a top starter. You either develop, trade for an established young arm, or trade for an ace's last few years.

So yeah, I don't believe free agency is the way the Phillies get their 2019 rotation. They could add as many as two more arms from trades (one in July, one in the off-season) that are both better, younger and no less controllable than one of this year's free agents on a three-year deal (albeit, you don't get them for this year). If they do sign one, they'll still be trading for at least one. Of course if all these internal options completely fail then they'll have to look at FA for a 4th starter type too.

One of the phrases in that 538 article referenced it being worth it to get better even as your farm system declines. So that obviously also means trades, as well as giving up comp. picks and not drafting as high.

This stuff doesn't exist in a vacuum. There are certain pitchers they want and certain pitchers they don't want. The pitchers they most want to trade for haven't come available yet because I believe if they had they would have done it (the pitchers who were traded weren't guys they wanted badly, no other team has met the price for the others). It seems clear they want Arrieta, and equally clear that they only want Lynn or Arrieta on a really friendly deal (like, possibly Moustakas-friendly at this point).

At the same time, if Arrieta's the guy it's also possible you can't write him into the 2019 rotation.

The advantage of Keuchel or Hamels over Arrieta is you're signing one of them in 2019 instead of 2018, plain and simple. If you're not signing them to 4-5 year deals - which seems like a bad idea - or these guys are not going to be good pitchers in 2020 the specifics of the idea that they should do it now kind of evaporates.

I gotta think Hamels A) won't be on the Rangers by August and B) will have his option picked up. Partly because it will be a different team, But also because his buyout is $6 million against $20 million. So you're only really spending another $14 million. But who knows what kind of year he's going to have? He'll be pitching at 35 in 2019 (which kind of makes his whole objection to the six-man rotation funny. OTOH, routine is important for pitcher health. OTOH, maybe the new-school stuff could extend his career by two seasons, instead of being a "horse" who comes up lame?).

Austinfan 2018-03-10 18:35:07 UTC #258

Watching yesterdays game,
Eickhoff was 89-91, velocity inching up, and it turns out he's working on a changeup. So wait a couple weeks, see how he looks then - ST is where you work on new things if you have a guaranteed job.

Thompson pitched 3 innings, mostly 92-93, this looks like it's sustainable, if so, he's a legitimate candidate for one of the five spots. Nasty two seamer looks like a fast changeup, sinking low and away from LH hitters.

zambonir 2018-03-10 19:52:28 UTC #259

Yeah, I still think Eickhoff can work himself out. It's just that he probably won't be better than a 5th starter in the long run.

Or, alternately:

I don't put any stock whatsoever in spring training stats but I sure would like to have better ones if I were Maikel Franco.

allentown 2018-03-10 20:19:45 UTC #260

This reads like a really stupid article to me. When the article starts "He won a Cy Young Award in Toronto and finished in the top five of the voting four other times without really having a go-to changeup" you realize that Eickhoff has nothing in common with Halladay, apart from not having a good changeup when they came to Philly. And no, a FB that ranges 89-91 does not qualify as a 'low 90s FB'. Saying Eickhoff now likes "the speed and the counts I throw it in" about his new change-up is really saying nothing. How is his arm speed/deception, his control/command, the break on the pitch? Sounds like it got hit in this game. He may pull his changeup together, but this article is a waste of space and Eickhoff has yet to do anything in his career to prompt comparisons, even sideways ones, to Halladay. The Phillies must be feeling really nervous about their SP and their ability to sell the fans that it will be close to half-way okay to encourage an article like this.