2018 Phillies Spring Training News/Notes/Discussion

[Lawman]

Lively and a healthy Eickhoff are innings eaters, and nothing wrong with that, the number of starters that throw 162 innings each year is usually a little over 100, or about 3 per team

I just saw a report that the 200 inning pitcher is going the way of the 300 inning pitcher. I forget who it was, but the leader last year was smallest ever, with around 214 innings pitched.

[Austinfan]

You still need to start 162 games, and a 32 game starter averaging 6 IP will put up 192 innings.
So 162 innings pitched for a starter is a pretty low hurdle. 5.4 innings per game for 30 starts.

Which shows you that back of the rotation guys who pitch every 5 games have more value than just their WAR, it's also the value of the guy you'd have to use instead, which is often negative.

[bigegypt0417]

I doubt Velasquez is ever going to make it as a starter, as soon as the young fireballers arrive he's bullpen bound. I see no evidence that he's improved his command, and he's not that valuable as a 100+ pitches in 5 innings with the inevitable meltdown inning where he walks two guys and gives up a couple hits. Out of the pen he could uptick the velocity, focus on just the slider, and maybe be a late innings guy. His curve and changeup are minus pitches, and he slows his arm down on his two seamer.

I always enjoy when you discount the pitcher with the most talent to tell us about those with fringe stuff. Velasquez...with the lack of command you're bringing up is the one you need to develop. #5 starters grow on trees. You can throw a dart at a board and probably find a #5. You want to fill a rotation with them.

lol

[Austinfan]

You confuse velocity with talent in a pitcher, or where is Cordero these day? Or Tirado for that matter, or . . .

Velasquez not only lacks command, he only has one decent secondary pitch, his slider.
That's the profile of a RP.

[zambonir]

could certainly be wrong, but I think most of you are really over-analyzing Tommy Joseph's lack of versatility. No matter what happens, someone has to play first base. That Santana has played some 3B/OF and Hoskins plays OF, makes this a non-issue to me. The idea that you have someone that can come off the bench(or DH) with legit power and turn a game around with one swing outweighs all this.
We're talking about the 25th spot on the roster(something that has always gotten waaaaaaaaaay too much attention here), think about some of those that have filled that role in the past. Tommy Joseph is an upgrade to most of them.

But most managers consistently prefer a no-hit glove guy for that 25th spot. I don't think that is changing, necessarily, with the new regime. Also Santana and Hoskins and Altherr are all right-handed. If Joseph was a lefty bat he'd have a much better shot (and would probably even be tradeable, though still not for much). He'd never get an off-day or DH start against LHPs (because Hoskins would play 1B if they gave Santana one, or Santana would DH) and he's not really a good enough hitter that we can assume he'd be effective against top relievers four times a week (in this new bullpen age it would also be easy to pull your lefthanded reliever once Joseph got announced).

Even if Joseph has a shot I'd say it comes down to him vs. Quinn, they're still gonna want a pure utility guy. And Quinn does so much more.

[andyb]

If Walding could lift his offense a bit his left-handed bat is a much better fit for the bench than Joseph would be. We are not there yet though.

Also need to consider the 25th spot on a 4-man bench is different than on a 5-man bench. Everyone needs to play some D with only 4.

[zambonir]

Rosales (or whoever) is just placeholding for Kingery anyway. At that point there won't be a true back-up SS, just three starters and an OF who can also play it. Though I suppose you could also make the case for sendng Quinn down if you seriously intend to get Kingery playing time in the OF too. I still think they'd probably pick the versatile/defense guys over Joseph in that case; they'd both be making outs at the same rate so it's just a matter of valuing the glove over the bat.

[bigegypt0417]

Buster Olney on Twitter

[bigegypt0417]

You confuse velocity with talent in a pitcher, or where is Cordero these day? Or Tirado for that matter, or . . .

Velasquez not only lacks command, he only has one decent secondary pitch, his slider.
That's the profile of a RP.

the profile of a guy who k's more than a hitter an inning and has had some success at the ML level. He's also still only 25 years old.

You're comparing him to fringe ML talent and think you're making a solid point. The guys you described grow on trees. Arms like VV do not.

[Austinfan]

Velasquez has shown no progress in three years, in fact he's regressing.

A 94-95 FB is no longer a unique pitch, as velocity has increased, hitters have been selected to have quicker swings, which means velocity is less valuable (up to the high 90s, any pitch that's exceptionally good has value) relative to having a full repertoire of secondary pitches and good command.

Velasquez needs a third pitch and to be able to locate his FB consistently.
At some point he either develops that pitch or becomes a FB/slider RP.
Bullpens are full of guys like him who never developed as starting pitchers.

[andyb]

Velocity is not less valuable now. Everybody throws harder but the higher velocity guys still start with more potential value than the low velocity guys. We are just talking 95 vs 92 instead of 93 vs 90.

If Eickhoff only throws 90 now that is a bigger strike against him than Velasquez' 94 not being as unique any more. VV may very well end up in the bullpen, but he also has a better chance of being more than a 4th starter than any of our other starters. And he does have more than 2 pitches. He just can't command any of them yet. Simplifying his routine might help him do that (i.e. command 2 pitches instead of 4), but it does not take away from the potential of his raw stuff.

Eflin also has velocity but his other pitches are not as good at the moment (as shown by his K rate). He is an example of good raw velocity paired with mediocre secondary pitches (at the moment anyway).

[bigegypt0417]

Velasquez needs a third pitch and to be able to locate his FB consistently.
At some point he either develops that pitch or becomes a FB/slider RP.
Bullpens are full of guys like him who never developed as starting pitchers.

He hasn't had 3 years and with the injuries to discuss regression is silly. If you believe he'll never be healthy enough to be a starter then you may have a discussion. You are trying to tell me he should no longer be considered a starter while you talk to me about fringe ML pitchers is what I'm having trouble understanding. I know you have a fascination with finding end of the bench and fringy #5's but this seems a stretch even for you.

[donaldorc]

Phillies with a come-back win against the Yankees. This makes four wins in a row after losing two on Saturday. I'm irked that there are so few radio broadcasts during spring training. What do the announcers do during all this time off other than play golf?

[andyb]

Obviously he has not done this often, but remember that brief 2016 moment:

Vincent Velasquez Has Almost Everything | FanGraphs Baseball

I would venture to say that Velasquez is maybe our worst current starter. But he could also be one of our best and his stuff demands the chance to find out what he is. He probably is our most important non-Nola starter still because of his potential. That might change in a few months, but the team needs to give him every chance they can.

[zambonir]

AF, didn't you just argue the Phillies "gave up" on Floyd, Gonzalez and Carrasco? Velasquez falls into that same category just as surely as anyone else in the mix, and probably more so.

I mean, it's not complicated, he's a classic higher ceiliing lower floor guy (if you count the bullpen as a lower floor, which it might not even be).

[Jazzhead]

There's a logjam of position players having good springs; so it's a shame the Phils believe they have to go with an 8-man bullpen. Maybe if they sign Arrieta or another veteran they can feel more comfortable with carrying just seven and can find a way to keep both ToJo and Quinn.

[phillychuck]

Tojo and Quinn both have options remaining, so the Phils' organization will be able to keep both of them regardless of who makes the final 25-man roster. If one does go to AAA, they'll be a quick recall if the situation dictates it.

[zambonir]

I'm just not putting much stock in 20 Tommy Joseph ABs. And if Quinn doesn't make it for some reason it's not the end of the world for him to get a half-season in LV. Either of them (and Rupp) can come up when they are moving pitchers (starters and relievers) around, or for interleague. I feel like if they did carry five guys Joseph still wouldn't be one of them, we'd probably end up with Cowgill or Florimon.

Ryan Flaherty is probably the first call they have to make, unless he doesn't exercise his opt-out. He may yet have the edge over Rosales or Florimon, SSS numbers are just as good, and history with the brass.

[phillychuck]

z,

Florimon, Rosales, and Flaherty are pretty easy calls IMHO. It's more important to figure out what you have in Valentin than it is to carry one of these guys--they all average about 75 RC+ when they play in the big leagues, except Florimon, who is coming off of a +400 BABIP year that represents most of his MLB ABs. Your IF back-up long-term is Kingery, short term why not go with Valentin? The other guys are replacement-level players (Flaherty might be the exception because of his superior defense, and would be my second option. Like you, I'm not basing anything on a spring try-out.).

[zambonir]

I'm in favor of Valentin and I know these are not our father's Phillies but I just suspect they want the veteran. And it makes sense too, especially in light of Kingery, because if he comes up fast then you'd just be sending Valentin back to AAA quickly.

And it wouldn't hurt Valentin to still get a half-season in AAA, he's only 23, he's coming off the injury and he still only has 65 career games there, with a sub-.600 OPS last year. I think the Phillies already know what they have with him, he's a viable future bench player, but he may not make the team better than a veteran would in the immediate future. So you let him play in Allentown and you bring him up after you trade Hernandez or give up on Franco, if that's how it plays out.

His advantage, of course, is being on the 40. To me the question was always Florimon, he's presumably not sustainably the hitter we saw last season, but it was a Blanco-esque performance, they raved about his leadership, and they surely must have told him he had a preferred - if not binding - track back to the MLB roster when he agreed to re-sign.

Long-term it might be easier to have your utility guy come from the minor league free agent pool than to devote a 40-man spot to him each off-season, unless he's demonstrably better. So I guess there is that to still learn about Valentin.