2018 Phillies Predictions

[nycphils]

Ok, step up and predict - I’m sure I will lead in dumb predictions to be thrown in my face at the end of the year. I’m not going to predict everything yet until the personnel moves shake out.

I’ll start with this though:

The ‘pen will be Top 10 in baseball in ERA - I think Morgan, Hunter, Neris, Neshek and Garcia in particular will be a very tough group.

[tom81]

Cesar Hernandez makes the all star game.

[zambonir]

Well sure, if we're gonna have some fun (AF will like this one): Eickhoff puts up more WAR than two of the top four free agent pichers (Yu, Arrieta, Cobb, Lynn).

[Jeff05]

For which team, Tom?!

[tom81]

Oh the Phillies Jeff, but I’m not predicting which team he ends the year on.

[el-pietro]

Phillies make the wild card game.

[California_Dreamin]

I'll make two. Maikel Franco leads the team in home runs and by season's end, Scott Kingery is the best player on the squad.

[andyb]

'll make two. Maikel Franco leads the team in home runs and by season's end, Scott Kingery is the best player on the squad.

I guess you are making a 3rd prediction that Cesar is traded also. The team is talking about positional flexibility again and while it could be a smokescreen, I do think they are contemplating a world where Hernandez is not traded and either Kingery or Hernandez ends up playing 3B. Even though they do not have Franco's arm they both would have more range than Franco defensively.

Me - I think I roll the dice and trade Cesar now for the controllable starter we prefer to a free agent. Or the prospects that would make getting a controllable starter easier. I don't think that is what the Phillies are thinking though.

[allentown]

Altherr and Williams establish themselves as offensive and defensive plus MLB starting OFs, Hoskins establishes himself as a plus starting first baseman. Alfaro shows the good bat but minus defense. All 4 of these guys put up OPS greater than .850, with Herrera better than .825 OPS and Hernandez cracking .800. Santana backslides a little, but does well in CBP. A poor year with the bat for Franco and an adjustment year for Crawford. Kingery comes up in August -- he fields well, but it is an adjustment time with the bat.
,
The Phillies score a lot of runs, but are held back by the pitching (this assumes the rotation built upon what we have now. If that changes, projection will change.) A good year for Nola, a decent year for Eickhoff, Thompson decent as a starter and Eshelman makes the rotation by July. Neshek with a big fall-off in the pen, but Pivetta steps forward. Our SP on the year is bottom third and our pen is middle third in NL.

[California_Dreamin]

allentown...yes, I almost made a 3rd prediction and you touch on it. I expect Pivetta to become a solid middle of the rotation starter with some of the most dominating games of any starter in the rotation. I expect him to strike out over 150 hitters.

[Philsmania]

83 wins, third place in the NL East. As others have predicted, the bullpen is good while the no-name starting rotation (outside of Nola, see below) gets the job done.

Hoskins makes and wins the HR Derby and is joined in Washington for the All-Star Game by Nola and Neris.

Franco continues his slide to oblivion and is benched throughout August and September. Kingery comes up in July and they either play him increasingly at third or shift Hernandez or Crawford there.

[zambonir]

Altherr and Williams establish themselves as offensive and defensive plus MLB starting OFs, Hoskins establishes himself as a plus starting first baseman. Alfaro shows the good bat but minus defense. All 4 of these guys put up OPS greater than .850, with Herrera better than .825 OPS and Hernandez cracking .800. Santana backslides a little, but does well in CBP. A poor year with the bat for Franco and an adjustment year for Crawford. Kingery comes up in August -- he fields well, but it is an adjustment time with the bat.

If the front office shared those expectations they'd definitely be more aggressive about signing a pitcher! How many teams last year had five to seven everyday players with an OPS over .800 (or even four over .850)?

I am less rosy there. I figure Williams and Altherr both put up a lower OPS than last year (and if they don't it will be because they are platooning), Alfaro doesn't crack .800, and Williams is a defensive minus. I hope you are right about Herrera but it seems just as likely to me that he'll have the usual 3 great months and 3 less great (or bad) months, evening out to the same very good player with the same OPS he puts up every season.

My pessimism still calls for them to add a pitcher though. The offense (and fielding) need more support.

Also what do you mean about Hoskins establishing himself as a plus starting first baseman?

Allentown...yes, I almost made a 3rd prediction and you touch on it. I expect Pivetta to become a solid middle of the rotation starter with some of the most dominating games of any starter in the rotation. I expect him to strike out over 150 hitters.

Seems like A-Town had Pivetta in the pen.

[California_Dreamin]

Pivetta will not be in the bullpen, he will be in the rotation.

[zambonir]

Well, it's a thread for wild predictions, that's just how I read A-Town's comment, with Thompson and Eshelman in the rotation and Pivetta stepping up for Neshek. But he can clarify.

Waiting for someone to predict great things for Velasquez.

[phillychuck]

The starting pitcher we acquire between now and the end of spring training does not lead the Phils' starting staff in wins or ERA.

[Philsmania]

Plenty of promotional lookbacks to 2008.

At some point, possibly simultaneously, Rollins and Victorino return to sign ceremonial contracts to retire as Phillies.

[zambonir]

insane that it's been 10 years. And that it's been five of not winning.

[tom81]

I’m really going out on a limb with this one. Roman Quinn stays healthy all year.

[Jeff05]

A very thin limb! We had a fantasy thread, last year . . . Jeez, it would be great if Quinn stayed healthy all year.

[tom81]

Let’s revive this thread.

My prediction is that a Phillie wins the ROY award. The question is though, which one? Two obvious candidates in Crawford and Alfaro. The dark horse is Kingery. Too tough to make this call but I’m leaning to Kingery getting an early callup from AAA and putting in a run.