2018 Hall of Fame Ballot

Lawman 2017-11-22 13:49:25 UTC #1

So the ballot has quite a few names on it with Philadelphia connections, Jim Thome and Scott Rolen amongst them.

I think Thome gets in, but I'm not sure about Rolen. Interestingly, Keith Law felt Rolen deserves to be in. Rolen's career numbers:

2019 Hall of Fame Selections

bkeich 2017-11-22 14:00:59 UTC #2

Hall of Fame Statistics
Gray Ink
Batting - 27 (899), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor
Batting - 99 (171), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards
Batting - 40 (170), Average HOFer ≈ 50
JAWS
Third Base (10th):
70.0 career WAR / 43.5 7yr-peak WAR / 56.8 JAWS
Average HOF 3B (out of 13):
67.5 career WAR / 42.8 7yr-peak WAR / 55.2 JAWS

There is a case for Rolen and a case against him. He really does not have the total numbers and years of success that is normal (as shown by the "Gray" numbers above), but he certainly had a peak that was more than enough (10th best ever for 3rd base). He had a strong run but his career numbers are only really marginally HOF. I bet he eventually gets in, but he isnt a slam dunk by any means.

It is hard to make a compelling case for a player for the HOF who never lead the league in anything for a season, as Rolen did (at least offensively). There are some, but Rolen really was more of a solid player than great, but solid long enough is worthy of something.

Philsmania 2017-11-22 15:07:13 UTC #3

bkeich:

Hall of Fame Statistics
Gray Ink
Batting - 27 (899), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor
Batting - 99 (171), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards
Batting - 40 (170), Average HOFer ≈ 50
JAWS
Third Base (10th):
70.0 career WAR / 43.5 7yr-peak WAR / 56.8 JAWS
Average HOF 3B (out of 13):
67.5 career WAR / 42.8 7yr-peak WAR / 55.2 JAWS

There is a case for Rolen and a case against him. He really does not have the total numbers and years of success that is normal (as shown by the "Gray" numbers above), but he certainly had a peak that was more than enough (10th best ever for 3rd base). He had a strong run but his career numbers are only really marginally HOF. I bet he eventually gets in, but he isnt a slam dunk by any means.

It is hard to make a compelling case for a player for the HOF who never lead the league in anything for a season, as Rolen did (at least offensively). There are some, but Rolen really was more of a solid player than great, but solid long enough is worthy of something.

This goes back to the conversation we had about Rolen a while back and I stated my opinion that Rolen was never comfortable being a franchise player which he probably had the talent to be. The Phillies desired him to be that and he bristled at that desire, not wanting to be "the captain" or the voice of the clubhouse to the media (as opposed to a Daulton or Rollins). Of course, there were other issues between he and the Phillies organization, but I get the distinct sense that he wanted to be left alone and allowed to be himself. In St. Louis where the common but quite possibly inaccurate perception is he flowered, he was always second fiddle to Pujols. The closest he came to an MVP season was 2004 when he finished fourth and that was one of only four times that he even appeared on the MVP ballot and the only time he appeared on the ballot as a Cardinal.

In terms of postseason, he got a ring with the Cardinals in 2006 but his postseason line is nothing to write home about (.220/.302/.376/.678, 5 HR, 12 RBI in 39 games) and only three of the nine postseason series he played in could really be considered outstanding (2002 NLDS, 2004 NLCS and 2006 WS which the Cards won so I suppose that's a feather in his cap).

If he gets in, it's probably by way of the Veterans Committee in recognition of him as one of those "total body of work" guys. And, in a somewhat delicious irony, the Hall probably puts him in as a Phillie if it goes by the numbers in assigning him a cap.

andyb 2017-11-22 16:17:23 UTC #5

The idea of Rolen as just a solid player simply discounts the value of defense. It matters greatly that he was a gold glove quality defender. Just like that is part of Utley's case also. Rolen's numbers merit the Hall of Fame. He is above the average of 3B in the Hall. That is enough for me. It is not like he is a borderline case that is closer to the worst 3B in the Hall.

Philsmania 2017-11-22 16:20:10 UTC #6

Anyway, my ballot of seven:

Thome
Hoffman
Guerrero
C.Jones
Vizquel--he deserves it and his getting in may help Rollins' cause down the road
McGriff--if he had just seven more dingers, he would have been first ballot
Moyer--not a HOFer but I got to give my fellow SJU Hawk a vote while he's on the ballot!

I don't feel compelled to vote for anyone else. Sorry, I won't vote for the PED guys (Bonds, Sosa, Clemens, Sheffield and Ramirez) and, fair or not, I still hold being a DH against Martinez. David Ortiz will get in as a DH but too late for Martinez by way of the BBWA vote. Perhaps the Veterans Committee after Ortiz opens the door for DH's.

I predict a four man class of Hoffman, Guerrero, Thome and Chipper.

zambonir 2017-11-22 17:14:17 UTC #7

Defense is definitely underrated but also harder to quantify. For me the qualitative case is a simple one about position and era. He's pretty clearly one of the three best 3B of the last 40 years (Chipper, Beltre), defensively the best of his generation and also a guy who only ever played 3B. No DHing (since he never went to that league), no position change late in the career.

After that you've got Robin Ventura and Matt Williams and Rolen compares favorably or better to both offensively in the glamor categories, with a higher OPS.

David Wright just as good but health got him.

And you almost have to give Rolen credit for retiring early, it would have dropped his OPS but he probably still would have padded his counting stats while adding a couple of more WAR for two more seasons. Which is basically what Chase is doing.

andyb 2017-11-22 17:56:13 UTC #8

My point on defense is that when people refer to Rolen being more of a solid player than great is that they are referencing only his offense. He was only solid on offense. That is true. When considering defense he was a star for more than a decade. He had 11 different 4+ WAR seasons. That is much more than solid.

bkeich 2017-11-22 18:23:51 UTC #9

True, but sadly the HOF voting often does ignore fielding except in extreme cases, like Ozzie Smith.

Oddity for Rolen, he never played a single inning at any other position and of course never DH'd. He only PH 23 times, and 16 times in his last 3 seasons (so only 7 times in 14 seasons), and Pinch Ran once. Basically, if he was healthy he went out to 3B.

zambonir 2017-11-22 18:41:01 UTC #10

A few decades from now the veteran's committee process will be very different, in terms of using data and defense (and, I suspect, those people will also not care about the PED stuff). But for now, how do you make the statistical case for Rolen's defense with that average, older voter? All you really have are fielding percentage and errors. WAR does make it pretty simple but I don't think the HoF conversation has gotten there yet (I mean, the HoF conversation still values wins).

zambonir 2017-11-22 18:45:35 UTC #11

Also, for the love of God it is time to put Rolen on the Phillies wall (lol, if he makes the Hall they can also retire his number). Abreu in 2019.

California_Dreamin 2017-11-22 18:56:25 UTC #12

No one will convince me that Rolen is a HOFer but Richie Allen isn't. If you saw both of them play there is little doubt who was the better player. I still believe Allen was the most talented player I ever saw wear a Phillie uniform, and that includes Mike Schmidt.

Rolen was very good, but he was no more than the 3rd best 3rd baseman the team ever had, and only one of the other two is in the HOF. Until Allen gets in, it seems irrelevant to discuss Rolen's chances to me.

And while a person can say Allen never made it to the WS, he practically willed the '64 Phillies and '72 White Sox to the promised land and it was not his fault that neither team made it.

I have said it before but its worth mentioning. Had the '64 Phillies won that Friday night extra inning game against the Braves, stopping the losing streak at 4 and probably catapulting the team to the WS, Allen's race around the bases for an inside the park home run would rank with Sisler and Schmidt as the most memorable home runs in Philadelphia history.

It truly was an extraordinary event, considering the circumstances, and one that never gets the credit it deserves...because they lost the game and the flag.

bkox 2017-11-22 19:49:36 UTC #13

I assume you meant 30 years? Since 40 years ago was 1977 and a man named Schmidt was in his prime and would play 12 more seasons

zambonir 2017-11-22 19:51:41 UTC #14

So if the original HOF voters botched Allen, they should botch another guy too? Since they are not, at this point, subject to the same induction process, it seems irrelevant to discuss Allen's chances to me. (As a debate for fun, sure.)

zambonir 2017-11-22 19:55:58 UTC #15

haha yes bad math. Though (especially with Beltre included) I guess I was thinking more of the four decades ('80s, '90s, 00s, 10s). In my head Schmidt is a '70s player, but in reality he owned nearly all of the '80s too.

Appropriately enough 1977 is also the cut-off for Brooks Robinson.

VoteForKalas 2017-11-28 20:24:16 UTC #16

It has always been politics instead of based on talent or achievements. Phillies hold onto their grudges pretty strongly...and then they support total scumbags like Rose for the WOF. It is so pathetic.

Philsmania 2017-11-28 23:14:47 UTC #17

Dick Allen? Dallas Green? Curt Schilling? Larry Bowa? All of those guys left the Phillies contentiously (Bowa did three times, in fact) yet the Phillies kissed and made up with all of them and they are all on the WOF. I wouldn't exactly call any of them Miss America. Those who believe the conspiracy theories that they tried to smear Pat Burrell out of town should also note that he is also on the WOF (and before getting on there, he signed a ceremonial contract to retire as a Phillie).

As they say, it takes two to tango.

zambonir 2017-11-28 23:23:59 UTC #18

Yeah, as has been noted, Abreu was not yet eligible for the wall, and, ironically, Rolen only became eligible in 2016 when they changed the rule to four years in order to pick Thome. I could have gone either way with Thome (and was also not that fazed by Rose) but those two players are not actually being stonewalled, and you could make the case that there are still enough older candidates available that they shouldn't jump the order, though I think they were both clearly good enough to do so.

Alas, recent events mean there's only one serious candidate for inclusion this year, someone who will jump the order. They probably don't even need to have a ballot.

VoteForKalas 2017-11-29 15:16:34 UTC #19

Two to tango?

What the heck did Rolen or Abreu ever do to get the shaft the way they have from the Phillies?

Please provide the evidence and explain what they did. Give me a break.

Rolen had the audacity to want to win, refused to play their bs games or bend to their negative PR campaign, got traded and won. They smeared him completely. It was shameful treatment for one of the best players they have drafted and developed over the last 25 years. Rolen was a very hard worker, great teammate and wonderful representative of the organization that, at first, made the face of their franchise, but then turned on when he had the balls to call out their real hypocrisy.

Abreu was not drafted by the Phillies, but played most of his career here and did nothing but play hard, produce at high levels and be a class act teammate and representative of the organization. He was routinely used as a scapegoat by the organization for their failures to build a winner and make the playoffs.

Even Phillies own radio and TV broadcasters ripped him at every chance they could and did nothing to stop a smear campaign amongst the local media & fans about his "lazy" attitude and work ethic. Abreu was also one of the best Phillies players of the last 25 years and did absolutely nothing to deserve such treatment.

They both deserve to be on the WOF as soon as they are eligible and hopefully the organization has learned lessons about how to properly treat players from those situations.

zambonir 2017-12-19 01:58:48 UTC #20

Rosenthal (partial excerpt)

Rolen’s overall value, in Jaffe’s estimation, places him among the top 10 third basemen in history. His defense, as evidenced by his eight Gold Gloves, was cutting edge, a prelude to the acrobatics of Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado. Rolen also was a bona fide offensive threat, a much stronger hitter than say, Brooks Robinson—his career 122 OPS-plus was the equal of Hall of Famers Ernie Banks and Paul Molitor.

10-year dominance is my first requirement for a Hall of Famer, and Rolen accomplished that. From 1997 to 2006, he averaged 136 games, 25 homers and an .894 OPS, all while playing brilliantly in the field.