Discussion

EDmuch 2018-12-22 17:48:49 UTC #1424

I would say Moniak becomes a Prospect again. Not a top Prospect. A top prospect was someone like Soto for the Nats who was an ROY candidate at age 19.

nycphils 2018-12-22 17:51:03 UTC #1425

Moniak:

22 BB/100 K in Single A with a sub .400 SLG says not too likely

As a 1:1, he’s as big a disaster as you could find.

EDmuch 2018-12-22 18:04:29 UTC #1426

Let's not forget that Hallesley is not exactly setting the world on fire either. But at least there is a chance he may arrive this year and make some contribution to the team.

jimbomill 2018-12-22 18:40:09 UTC #1427

Ever hear of Markelle Fultz?

allentown 2018-12-22 19:21:30 UTC #1428

I heard the nail thud into the coffin with the admission that the best that could be expected from him was a barely average defensive performance in LF: slow, no power, very little field and limited to LF where he has a score of competitors, he'd have to hit .320 with a .400 OBP to have significant value.

mdougherty12 2018-12-22 19:23:57 UTC #1429

Just for fun, here’s Kiley McDaniel’s mock draft from 2015:

zambonir 2018-12-22 20:03:49 UTC #1430

I'm not excusing the draft, but when MacPhail and Klentak were at the chalkboard in 2016 projecting the next three seasons of salaries and clearing the financial decks for this free agent class, who'd been taken in 2015 or who they'd take in 2016 and 2017 was not a factor. Kingery is on-schedule. Nobody else was in the mix at that point; everyone else was either 2014 and before, or acquired another way.

I reckon you always take the BPA but Franco was coming off his .840 season prior to the 2016 draft so you've got to wonder if that played a role in passing up both the 3B and the college player (even if money played a bigger one).

allentown 2018-12-22 20:04:19 UTC #1431

On draft day, it was projected he would have to move from SS to 3B, but that he could play 3B. He was also rated as slightly above average power. Bad development or mis-evaluation?

I've not given up on Franco. I thought that his biggest weakness was his defense, but he had gotten that up to -0,2 bWAR in 2017, then last year it dropped to -1.1 bWAR. I'm not going to say regressed, because I think more than any Phillies player, Franco was harmed by all the infield shifts the Phillies employed last season. He was also jacked around in and out of the lineup. His +1.6 b o-WAR projects to about +2.4 for a full season of ABs and would be the highest of his career. He's a guy who's become popular to devalue.

saycheese 2018-12-22 20:34:33 UTC #1432

the Hassley is not “setting the world in fire” is coming probably too high of expectations. Granted I have only seen him play in Reading but the guy has a real,good feel at the plate, a nice smooth swing, a small sample size but I look at things like 16 walks to 19 strikeouts in AA, his OPS was 880. Only 22 so,he can improve on that, he is not the 30 home run a year guy but I see him as a high On Base, HI BA solid fielder type in the majors. Certainly a starter. Here is something I will,also say he is a hard worker. I have witnessed his desire to continue to get batter. That is something I can’t say about guys who have come through reading that some have seen much higher on. Guys like Crawford and Dom Brown

zambonir 2018-12-22 20:57:14 UTC #1433

Franco wasn't really jacked around. He started 21 games in April/March and 23 in May. Only 16 in June but on June 20 he was down to a .693 OPS and had been actively benched. Then it all worked out. But really he only had a monster July, an acceptable August and a terrible September. His leveling off was just one of many things that led to the August swoon. Still not sure he's ever more than a .750 OPS player with below-average defense, even if it's at 2017 levels.

I still value Herrera more than Franco, which is why I'd rather have Machado than Harper. And I think, on a team with Machado and Segura, I also value Hernandez's offense (and consistency, when healthy) more than Franco.

No Machado, no Harper, it's a bit harder to rely on Franco in the short-term even if there's still a ghost of chance that he's a better player than Moustakas (or even Arenado) 2-3 years from now.

I think there's still a lot of trade market stuff left to play out that could still involve any one of Franco, Herrera, Hernandez and Williams.

EDmuch 2018-12-22 21:14:31 UTC #1434

Herrera consistency ????????? You mean the guy who thinks a 95 mph fastball at eye level is a good pitch to hit ??? That Herrera ????? Let's see what happens this year. But I think Herrera is doomed. Every pitcher now knows that you can get him out without throwing a strike. He consistently swings at pitcher at eye level or 12 inches outside. He refuses to take a walk. Herrera has always been inconsistent, hot streaks and cold streaks but no consistent productivity. And this past year, with the absence of Galvis riding him, he showed his complete lack of professionalism with an abominable August & September all while proclaiming how happy he is to be free to be "himself".

zambonir 2018-12-22 21:41:23 UTC #1435

I said Hernandez was consistent. You called him "pretty mediocre" but I don't think that's the case, especially when you take away his broken foot.

But since you brought it up - year-by-year Herrera is easily the more consistent and better player than Franco, even when he's streaky. To me it's much easier to think Herrera will bounce back (especialy in the field) from the first erratic season of his career than to think that Franco will put together his first non-erratic season since 2015. But I think we already both posted about this way up-thread (or in another thread).

EDmuch 2018-12-22 22:42:12 UTC #1436

Sorry, my mistake.

allentown 2018-12-23 01:07:22 UTC #1437

Franco had his OPS back up to .780 last season, which is reasonably good. Most hitters are erratic. In general, I think whole year stats are the best comparator. Herrera is very streaky within a season, but has been remarkably consistent on a year-to-year basis. Last year was clearly Odubel's worst as an MLB player, but I can readily believe he will snap back to his normal next season. The Phillies have been at least a decent defensive team. Lat year they stank defensively. I point the finger at management for that. I can't believe that so many Phillies suddenly forgot how to play defense and did so in a year in which management decided to change virtually everything defensive.

zambonir 2018-12-23 01:35:11 UTC #1438

For sure he had a respectable season, and his power and lack of strikeouts have some value, but he's still got a career OBP of .303 and a career OPS of .738. I just tend to think that's about who he is. If you throw out his best year and his worst year you get around .755.

It's hard to know what to do with him until the other FA pieces fall into play.

But how 'bout this thought exercise? Would you rather have Franco/Machado/Segura (putting Manny at SS) or Machado/Segura/Hernandez?

Hard to know where the team's head is at, they were ready to make Crawford the 3B last year and they were ready to make Santana the 3B (sort of) this year, so it's still hard for me to imagine seeing Maikel there on Opening Day, even if it's Kingery (assuming they get Harper) or Moustakas (if they don't) or Marwin Gonzalez or someone we haven't thought of.

el-pietro 2018-12-23 01:41:30 UTC #1439

I don't think I saw anything about the new minor league hitting coordinator.
The Phillies have hired Jason Ochart who was a college coach and worked/works with Driveline.
His expertise seems to be around biomechanics and improving swing planes.

zambonir 2018-12-23 02:07:12 UTC #1440

I'm not a huge Bowden fan but he's optimistic about the Phillies' chances at, well... just about everybody. Thinks they can still make the biggest offer to Harper (along with Chicago, but Chicago is not a contender) and that the front office's history with Manny counts.

In the end, if they don't get Manny, dealing with Boras may be a plus rather than a minus, since he also has a bunch of pitchers he needs to get signed (and Moustakas too).

andyb 2018-12-23 13:48:58 UTC #1441

Latest moves seem to be centering on relievers with the Phillies being involved in Britton and Robertson. The Robertson interest seems to be growing. Right-handed, but he does fit the mold of multi-inning reliever like Miller did (and more than Britton).

kmc1019 2018-12-23 15:11:12 UTC #1442

I would be glad to have Britton or Robertson or both. Funny thing: although both have very good stats, their splits over past 3 years are the opposite of most: Britton has lower OPS against righties than lefties, and Robertson has lower OPS against lefties than righties.

andyb 2018-12-23 16:13:15 UTC #1443

Question to ponder: What should the Phillies do if they actually get Machado? Seeing the Dodger moves around Harper and the reality that the Phillies ARE the best fit for Machado since the White Sox can't offer as much money and the Yankees may not want to get in a bidding war - it seems at least 50-50 that Machado will be a Phillies.

Our lineup becomes REALLY right-handed with Machado.

CF - Herrera/Quinn (LH/Switch)
SS - Segura (RH)
3B - Machado (RH)
1B - Hoskins (RH)
RF - McCutcheon (RH)
2B - Hernandez/Kingery (Switch/RH)
LF - Williams (LH)
C - Alfaro (RH)

We clearly need a LH bat in a corner spot. Is Williams good enough? Do we rotate and get 2 LH bats in the OF against most RH pitching with Herrera? Or do we need a better LH bat since our 2-5 hitters in that above lineup are all RH. Obviously one would not construct the lineup exactly that way, but we are pretty weak in the middle against RHP. I guess we might lead off Segura and put Herrera or Williams somewhere in the middle, but it is not an ideal lineup.

I might be OK with this though since one could play Quinn and have an all left-handed OF for the 20 games you rest Cutch. And Quinn can double-switch in the middle of games aggressively against the right matchups. One could see how this works for half a season and adjust at the trade deadline if necessary, knowing more about Haseley at that point as well.