2018-19 Phillies Off-Season News/Notes/Discussion

[bigegypt0417]

Why would Britton be worth a bidding war for the Phillies?
It's not like the bullpen is a black hole or we lack depth.
If you're gonna overspend, do it where you get the most benefit (replacing your worst players).

Because he's quality left handed pitcher who still has gas in the tank...the bullpen wasn't a strength last year...if you thought it was I'm not exactly sure what you were watching.

[Austinfan]

The pitching staff was solid last year, behind an average defense it would have been more than solid, that was an historically bad defense, which hurt pitching more than just "runs avoided," because there are synergistic effects (more outs in an inning, more pitches thrown, more opportunities for bad luck with runners on base).

Sure they could use Britton, but not enough to justify an overpay.

[allentown]

Whomever they replace have close to 0 WAR.

[Austinfan]

Britton has 0.7 WAR total (FG) the past two years combined.
His only good seasons, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016
So gamble on a veteran comeback or a young pitcher emerging?

Scary thing with Britton is he's a one pitch pitcher, when the sinker is on he's good, but he rarely throws a curve and has nothing else.

This is not the player you overspend for, he's basically a gamble, in that sense no different than Neris, who has shown he can be dominant for stretches. Sure he'd be a good addition, but he's not a sure thing.

[California_Dreamin]

AF...I will tell you why signing MM and Britton is important. Because the Phillies have been telling their phans that they would be signing guys like these two this off season and have asked phans to patiently wait for precisely this moment. It's as much about the credibility of their word as it is the players that they sign that matters, and it does.

My gosh, we probably have been teaching our youngsters how to spell the names Machado and Britton we have heard their names mentioned so often its surprising that they aren't already selling Machado and Britton jerseys at the local sporting goods stores.

It does matter, it just does. And goodness gracious, a day doesn't go by that one of the teams from the NL East doesn't add another player to their roster while, truth be told, the Phillies almost seem stuck in neutral as far as adding to their still flawed roster.

Big Egypt is correct, teams can't just suddenly decide one winter that they are going to spend money and expect players to flock to their organization, it doesn't work that way. The Phillie teams of the 70's and from 2005-2011 had credibility with players and agents. This group...not so much.

Signing MM signifies that the Phils are serious about winning, putting fannies in the seats at CBP, and keeping their word to a frustrated phan base.

Right now the Phils look to me like a 4th place team. For all the talk I have been reading about Trout leaving the Angels in 2 years if they don't start winning, a good case can be made that right now the Angel roster still looks better than the Phillies. Signing these guys matters...and unfortunately for the Phils, both Lozano and Boras know this.

[EDmuch]

Why not "overpay" if it improves this team. Are you paying an excise tax to Middleton or something? Your embrace of mediocrity is repetitive.

[EDmuch]

CD, I agree. Right now 4th place seems about right.

[zambonir]

Winning in May definitely put people in the seats. Winning in September will. Winning in October will.

But the Rosenthal column is right. The real issue here is the Phillies don't have good enough players. What happened in the early aughts worked because they had the players. So much so that they ended up dumping the free agent they signed to try and make a splash.

I actually do think the bullpen was pretty good last year, and they added three arms (well, two plus the Garcia for Alvarez swap) already this year. Even in this age of increased reliever importance/talent, they are the most variable and unreliable commodity in the game (just look at Ken Giles). An effective Neris could easily put up as much WAR as Britton. I'm not saying they couldn't use another proven late-inning guy but if they are going to trade Neshek, Hunter or Nicasio the upgrade won't be that pronounced if MIller or Britton get hurt again or aren't what they were.

It did seem like they really wanted Miller though and his contract wasn't big at all (the third year is a vesting option) so they either had doubts, like Britton that much better (in which case it doesnt matter if they have to pay him more) or are actually getting Minor (and as a reliever).

Current roster/depth chart projected to go 79-83, incidentally. 4th place, indeed.

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

[bigegypt0417]

Britton has 0.7 WAR total (FG) the past two years combined.
His only good seasons, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016
So gamble on a veteran comeback or a young pitcher emerging?

Scary thing with Britton is he's a one pitch pitcher, when the sinker is on he's good, but he rarely throws a curve and has nothing else.

This is not the player you overspend for, he's basically a gamble, in that sense no different than Neris, who has shown he can be dominant for stretches. Sure he'd be a good addition, but he's not a sure thing.

That's such a bad take...he's been essentially hurt during that time.

If you look at his numbers after becoming a yankee, you see a guy who started to get stronger.

[andyb]

Current roster/depth chart projected to go 79-83, incidentally. 4th place, indeed.

If you look at the ZIPS projections one of the big drops from last year is Nola. Basically he was off the charts 10 WAR good last year and any projection is going to have him more in the 4-5 WAR good range. Even the moves we have made that have improved defense are not enough to add the 5 wins we lose through regression to the mean among our one outlier from last year.

Adding Machado as a 3B probably adds close to 5 more wins to our projections. Then maybe a starter and left-handed reliever could add 2-3 more wins. I think it is probably hard to see a winter that ends with us getting more than 85-87 wins in any projections, though that range is the place where improvement from young players or Nola repeating last year could make us a plausible division contender.

[zambonir]

I'd have rather overpaid for a starter than a reliever but at some point you've got to spend this money. The players deserve it (meaning, teams are making tons of money) and it's not going to hobble the future indefinitely. Miller was meant to be cheaper/shorter than Britton though, if he wants Kimbrel money that's a problem.

[David_Criss]

Guys and Gals, Here me when I say I want Machado in Phillies red and would love Britton, too. But I don't plan to immediately distrust the team I love. They are already much improved over last year. McCutchen in left solves a lot of defensive issues the Phillies had last year in the outfield. Sequer is way better than Crawford/Kingery at SS and Hoskins I bet will be a little more comfortable not trying to learn a new position at the Major League level.

Machado and Harper will get paid stupid money wherever they sign. At this point it is out of our hands and their hands. I think we can all agree that the Phillies will make a very strong stupid money offer to either or both of those stars. If Harper truly wants to play in LA and Machado truly wants to play in NY they can do that and still make stupid money. I can't see the dollar amounts being vastly different.

Reading between the lines that Machado is probably weighing the Phillies v. the Yankees. With the Yankees he can play SS. With the Phillies he will play 3B. He knows the AL East. So if he signs with the evil empire it wont be because the Phillies didn't go all out.

[allentown]

Segura-2018 is way better than Crawford/Kingery-2018. I don't expect as large a difference in 2019 and by 2020/21 the difference may very well favor Crawford/Kingery.

I am agnostic on Britton. I think him unlikely to be 2019's version of Lidge-2008.

I think it vital that we sign Machado. I prefer him to Harper and see failure to sign either as leading to future turmoil in Phillies management and a severely negative fan reaction. If we don't sign one of Machado/Harper, then the team had better have a significantly improved W-L record in 2019 or I think Klentak and/or MacPhail are gone. Their timidity and willingness/desire to keep pushing contention farther into the future are just too great a contrast to Middleton. We are in danger of being lapped by the Braves.

Klentak has muffed on Santana, muffed the deadline trades last summer. He can ill-afford to muff this off-season.

[zambonir]

The projections are obviously subject to change and also never truly predictive, but the fact remains that the Mets are at 85 wins.

I don't think MacPhail is going anywhere. He's an owner. He'll last as long as Monty and Giles did. Unless he and Middleton truly aren't on the same page (Middleton being the guy who pushed out both the others). But he gets to hire more than one GM. What they put on the field in 2019 will play a big part in whether Klentak or Kapler gets blamed, should things not go well.

That said, 90% of the free agents still haven't signed. Trades are still in play. The rebuild did proceed as it should have (last year's disappointments aside). Agreed they have to to seriously touch 90 wins this year - even more so if they don't nab one of the stars.

[Patchmk88]

Looks like it will be Machado or nothing now with the Dodgers clearing space for Harper.

[zambonir]

They were always gonna do it. Doesn't mean they'll give Harper what he wants. Doesn't mean we will either of course.

[bigegypt0417]

Keep in mind the dodgers may be clearing space for some starting pitching and they have been connected to AJ Pollack.

[frylock]

Machado or bust... the Dodgers trade probably seals the deal for Harper to LA. Wish we signed Miller, as an O's fan as well, want no part of Britton. I think spending big $$ on him ends in disaster, though if it happens, I obviously hope I'm wrong. Still think Machado ends up with NYY, although I do think we'll make the best offer. Not very optimistic X_X

[Austinfan]

Unless Klentak is a fool, he has a reservation price on both Machado and Harper.

Now that price should have an overpay built into it, but you have to be disciplined, just because another owner goes full stupid, doesn't mean you have to go dumb and dumber on him.

In a sense, you have overpays on any FA where you think the value to the team justifies the risk, it's not just the value of the player, but the marginal value to the team. McCutchen had a lot of value to the Phillies b/c of the paucity of alternatives and his track record of durability, Brantley might out perform him for 100 games, but who would play the other 60?

[andyb]

Unless Klentak is a fool, he has a reservation price on both Machado and Harper.

Of course he does. Every GM does. That does not mean his price is not greater than every single other team. The common thread in just about all of Klentak's free agent signings except Arrieta is that he has paid above the predicted price for the free agent he wants. We paid above market for McCutchen. Also for Santana and arguably the 2 relievers last year (Neshek and Hunter).

The fact is that this is one winter where the Phillies do not have to be as disciplined as the other teams since they have the ability to spend more than other teams. That means their price may be different than other organizations' price. Sometimes you overpay to get your man. Klentak has done it before (and very recently with Cutch). If that is what it takes to get Machado he needs to do that.