2018-19 Phillies Off-Season News/Notes/Discussion

[zambonir]

I just don't put much stock in anybody's public statements. Klentak likes to play things close to the vest. Middleton also put him in a dumb position with the "little bit stupid" comment. But they know that preparing the fan base in advance for failure won't actually work, just like statements in the media won't actually affect negotiations tangibly (Scott Boras: "oh, Matt Klentak says he doesn't want to go crazy, I guess I'll take his lowball offer and assume
he won't go higher"). It just doesn't really tell us what's going on.

And while I do think an owner should let their president and GM do their jobs, he's still the owner, he's going to be directly involved in negotiations at this level, and if MacPhail and Klentak are too conservative for his taste he will likely overrule them. Which he arguably already did with Arrieta even if the market came to them.

If the gulf between the Yankees and Phillies really is 30-50 million, or if Machado suddenly decides he wants to play with his brother-in-law badly enough to take a lower offer from the White Sox, well, at least we didn't trade for him last deadline. At that point, of course, you have to be willing to go bigger on Harper.

As leak-happy as this business is we haven't heard news of a single tangible $ offer to either player, from any team. Everything is speculative.

[fish]

I think they've gotten signals that preferred locations are offering enough they'd have to offer stupid money to sign Machado or Harper, say $50M more than the Yankees

Buttt, didn’t we all know that already? That shouldn’t have been a surprise. All $$ being equal, who would choose philly over NY or LA? The difference maker was always going to be the extra cash, and at the $300, the scale is quite different to determine how much more swings the pendulum.

[Austinfan]

Well, when I said that, they piled on.

It's the reason I'm focused on the farm system, 2nd tier FAs, and following the Houston model, think small market but spend like big market - that is, forget the premium FAs, they rarely come to places like Philly (Trout is an obvious exception in two years), and spread the money around, but wisely. Use that cash to sweeten trades, pick up international money, etc., by helping GMs who spent their way into a hole by taking some bad contracts off their hands.

[zambonir]

The Houston model is great but we didn't draft or develop like they did. Adding a Josh Reddick there or a Charlie Morton here or a Ken Giles or Verlander to put you over the top requires a better starting base. Something the Royals, Cubs and Dodgers had too. I'm not sure there's any place on the Internet that's in love with building from within and the farm system more than this board. But the guys that had the system well-ranked for the past 2-4 years have shaken out and nobody's in AAA or AA to fill that in yet.

This year's Phillies are going to be more like the Brewers, with money.

I still think Machado and Harper are going to sign the best offer, period. Will the Phillies make it? Will it be closer to 350 or closer to 400? Nobody knows that yet.

[zambonir]

Rangers weigh possibly dealing Minor to Phils

"One source said the Rangers would be willing to trade Minor if the Phillies are willing to give up at least a couple of their better young pitching prospects."

The Phillies are deep in young pitching -- including left-handers Ranger Suarez and Cole Irvin, plus right-handers Enyel De Los Santos and Drew Anderson. All were at Triple-A at the end of last season.

Some of the Phillies' best pitching prospects are in the lower levels of the Minors. Right-handers Sixto Sanchez and Adonis Medina, and left-handers David Parkinson and Kyle Young were in Class A, while left-hander JoJo Romero was at Double-A.

[Patchmk88]

Two good pitching prospects for Minor? No thank you!

[phillychuck]

Not a chance I'm trading two of any kind of prospect for Minor. One lottery ticket, maybe...

[zambonir]

I mean, what's a fair price for two years of a cheap pitcher who put up 3.8 WAR last year and could also be an elite reliever (he put up 2.9 doing that in 2017). You don't get that for nothing. That's worth more than a closer (i.e. Giles) to me.

Now, you can get Gio Gonzalez for nothing. Or just go with Eflin for nothing. Or acquire Sonny Gray for a lot less (I think?). But this is not a salary dump for Texas. They could still keep him on the team but it's smarter for them to get a pitcher who might help them past 2020. Whereas the Phillies need someone who can help them now.

Let's say it's De Los Santos and one guy in Single A (but not Sixto or Medina). Is that about half as good a package as James Paxton fetched?

[nycphils]

Personally I wouldn’t. Would I do Suarez and Parkinson? Maybe.

[Austinfan]

Minor 3.8 WAR? There's something wrong at BR, because his 2018 season wasn't much better than Eickhoff's 2017 season, and worse than his 2016 season.
28 starts, 157 IP, 4.18 ERA, 4.36 FIP
Eickhoff 2017
24 starts, 128 IP, 4.71 ERA, 4.30 FIP
Eickhoff 2016
33 starts 197 IP, 3.65 ERA, 4.19 FIP

[tom81]

BR’s pitching WAR is screwy IMO, I think Fangraphs is much better. Fangraphs has Minor at 2.2, the same as Eflin and worse than both Pivitta and Valesquez. Adding him to the rotation sounds like a downgrade to me.

[LoneStarPhan]

Don't see Minor as a major upgrade.

[zambonir]

Well, this will be a fun test then. Because presumably if the Phillies really want him, they have their own data. Kind of surprised about BBRef because I thought they overated IPs, and it's not like Minor ate innings.

Sure would be nice to have 2016 Eickhoff again.

[andyb]

Let's say it's De Los Santos and one guy in Single A (but not Sixto or Medina). Is that about half as good a package as James Paxton fetched?

I would definitely do De Los Santos and maybe someone like Parkinson or Young from A ball. Someone like Eflin has much more value because they have at least some decent minor league track record.

Would this deal be the number one priority? No. But I'd consider it if the other LHPs fell through. Still hoping they get in on Kikuchi for instance.

[andyb]

FIP is not league or park adjusted. Texas is the number one hitters' park. The AL also has the DH. Minor was pretty good last year and has more of a track record than our young pitchers (and I would not count on Eickhoff for any certain role given he got lucky the first time around the league and has been hurt or pitching with lesser stuff since then). Bad comparison. Minor is much better than Eickhoff.

[Austinfan]

Minor to me has the most value as a LH RP and spot starter.'
But not nearly enough value to justify taking the place of the three young SPs.

[zambonir]

But they're not likely to have the luck or health they did last year. Last year they only needed six pitchers; this year they might need 8. You add a vet and push Eflin to AAA he'll get his chance just as easily as he did last year. So will Eickhoff if he's still around after ST. The only real question is whether they might trade one of the young pitchers (either in a deal for the replacement or in a deal for something else having acquired the replacement).

I still think De Los Santos is going to end up a relief pitcher this season if he's on the Phillies so that's another good reason for him to be at the top of the trade list (though they would also value his options).

If they trade for Minor but still intend to sign Miller I'd try to make Texas take one of the excess lefty relievers, they have value (and could be flipped by the Rangers in July if not before).

[nycphils]

I think de los Santos is going to have a big role in the pen as a 6/7th inning guy who can go two innings and has options...would I give Irvin or Suarez and Parkinson, I definitely would.

[zambonir]

I don't see how De Los Santos comes close to making the 25 out of spring training, but a lot of wheels still spinning at the moment. Certainly, if he is in Allentown, he will end up pitching in the Phillies bullpen eventually.

[schooldoc]

Machado scheduled to meet with Yankees on Wednesday (per NY Post) and Thursday with the Phillies (per Jim Salisbury).