2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

Austinfan 2019-01-10 01:22:04 UTC #141

If the cost drops significantly, Phillies could make out like bandits, another reason to be patient in the free agency market.
There are only a dozen teams or so with the cash flow to spend up to the cap on a regular basis, and many have already committed a big chunk of cap room (Phillies could fast that in two years when Trout hits the market).

It's not about spending money, it's about avoiding gross overspends that kill your cap down the road.
$30M a year for a 4-5 WAR player, even if the last 2-3 years are risky, is palatable, $40M is hard to swallow.

julio 2019-01-10 18:27:58 UTC #142

9 posts were split to a new topic: Reserve System/ Player Salares (non-Phillies discussion)

tom81 2019-01-10 02:52:14 UTC #145

I think Harper and Machado are playing chicken with each other. The first one who blinks and takes the money will get the most IMO. I think that they both did well by waiting to this point but I think it will change soon.

tom81 2019-01-10 09:15:51 UTC #148

The Grandal contract is telling. He got a higher AAV than the earlier offers he rejected but only on a one year deal. The same may happen to these two. They may end up like the free agents last year. Maybe signing a creative contract like Arrieta but not for nearly what they thought going into the offseason.

zambonir 2019-01-10 17:06:26 UTC #152

They may get less than they thought but they're not gonna drop as far as Arrieta or Grandal did. More in the J.D. Martinez/Darvish category. Darvish didn't sign until February 13. Martinez February 19.

I wonder what the Phillies are doing to do about catcher, still can't see them going with Knapp even if they aren't interested in pushing Alfaro to back-up temporarily (as Grandal would have).

Patchmk88 2019-01-10 17:16:00 UTC #153

Bring back Chooch

bigegypt0417 2019-01-10 17:23:35 UTC #154

ok...again...this should be taken with a grain of salt but in the article below it seems like the video game, MLB the show 2019 will have Bryce Harper on the cover and the unveiling with the uniform is supposed to be Saturday...

EDmuch 2019-01-10 18:53:45 UTC #155

I think the UFA situation is beginning to suggest that Manny and Bryce may do better going with the shorter term, higher annual pay (say $40-45 million per year for five years) and then sign another contract at age 31 that will be a smaller amount over the next five years. They could still windup with over $300 million for ten years.

bkox 2019-01-10 19:02:52 UTC #156

julio 2019-01-10 19:38:36 UTC #157

Excellent. One down, eight to go...

zambonir 2019-01-10 20:52:50 UTC #158

Recent Heyman gossip has been that Machado still wants to beat Stanton and that no team, including the Phillies, has exceeded even $300 million. So really the teams are the ones slow-playing this. If the Phillies really wanted either player badly enough they could hit the number and be done with it, but why spend $30-50 million you don't have to if no other team has beat your current offer yet?

andyb 2019-01-10 21:00:02 UTC #159

Might be good to explore deferred money for a lower AAV if the Stanton number is the holdup. In the end the market will prevail of course but it sure looks like Machado may not exceed a $30M AAV.

EastFallowfield 2019-01-10 21:34:50 UTC #160

Austinfan 2019-01-10 22:20:20 UTC #161

I think teams aren't lowballing free agents, rather, with the experience of the last decade, they're valuing free agents more accurately.

The presumption of a lot of the projections is zero injury risk, but on a ten year deal, injury risk is signifiicant, even for durable players at 26, much less players with any sort of injury risk approaching 30. So if you model as a decision tree, you have one outcome of 10 years at high performance with Probability Pa, a second won with 5 years of production then erratic production and a lost season or two with Probability Pb, and so on. You can use the universe of top players at their age 26 season to develop the probabilities of different outcomes.

A five year contract presents a much smaller risk and therefore merits a higher AAV.

For a team, it's not just expected value, but risk aversion, getting stuck with 5 out years at $30+M a year for 1-2 WAR per year is a disaster with a semi-firm salary cap.

Florida_Sunshine 2019-01-11 00:58:11 UTC #162

AF,

Regardless, this really puts the onus on the Phils to sign Machado. He is there to be had it appears.

And if the opportunity is there to get both on shorter deals, we should seriously consider that.

allentown 2019-01-11 02:19:58 UTC #163

At $10 million/WAR it takes a cumulative 30 WAR over a 10 year contract to be cost effective. If a guy averages 4 WAR in first 5 years then 2 WAR in last 5 years, he performs to contract. Actually it will be a win for the team, because WAR in first 5 years is more valuable and cost/WAR will increase significantly over a 10-year period.

Austinfan 2019-01-11 03:21:39 UTC #164

$10M per WAR is a gross overpay, it's what teams pay for the incremental player who might put them over the top.
If you're paying that just to rebuild, you'll soon run out of money (20 WAR at $10M just ate your entire payroll).

allentown 2019-01-11 04:04:06 UTC #165

I don't plan to rebuild the team at $10 mill/WAR. That's for the available, young star the Phillies need. Most of the team will be young guys not that far from the minimum. We can well afford to pay $10 million/WAR to add a star.

LoneStarPhan 2019-01-11 05:09:53 UTC #166

zambonir 2019-01-11 05:19:54 UTC #167

It's like college basketball all of a sudden. So who's the 1B coach and who is in charge of baserunning?