2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

andyb 2019-01-08 21:09:53 UTC #121

Who is talking about $450 million other than you? Kind of changing the goalposts when we are talking about $350 million/$35 million AAV type deals. There is little indication that the talks are going beyond that at this point. BTW the last 5 years would be age 31-35. And the luxury line will probably be $250 million 6-10 years from now. No matter how much you say this might be a Howard contract it simply is not. Younger players with more defensive value are different than one dimensional, older sluggers.

These are more like Miguel Cabrera in terms of aging. Cabrera was a better hitter but had less defensive value. He was great through his age 33 year. If we get a good player for 8 years out of this, the last 2 is the cost of doing business.

andyb 2019-01-08 22:28:35 UTC #122

Here is an article from yesterday speculating that the Yankees have not even offered Machado $200 million yet (maybe something like 5/180). If the competition is the White Sox and the Yankees at $200 million then I imagine the Phillies should have a decent chance at Machado. And at getting him for less than 10/350.

Now if this is the realistic market I doubt Machado is going to sign soon. Let the Harper market drive prices up a bit first. Then let teams get a little more desperate.

zambonir 2019-01-08 22:54:32 UTC #123

It's be really funny if, after all this belly-aching that the Phillies might strike out (or people saying they'd be happy if so), they went out and got both of them, but it seems very unlikely. I think they really are waiting for Trout in that sense, thus the reluctance to even give three years to Happ or Miller.

andyb 2019-01-08 23:02:22 UTC #124

Not expecting both. Kind of hoping the market for Machado is softer than expected because the Yankees are hesitant. Getting Machado for less than $350 million would be a huge win. Plus no draft pick compensation all winter. Trade Franco for prospects or outfield depth and I'd call it a pretty good winter even without getting a top starter.

With Machado I would be fine assessing our rotation with the deeper bullpen for a half season to determine if we needed a left-handed starter. I also would be fine giving Herrera, Williams, Quinn, and even Altherr a half season to prove we don't need an OF upgrade.

zambonir 2019-01-08 23:16:28 UTC #125

Absolutely. I know we'd be short on lefty power but no reason to give up on Williams or Herrera for Nick Markakis or some bench bat. And I do think the search for a rotation upgrade is over unless/until they don't get one of the big bats.

tom81 2019-01-08 23:38:07 UTC #126

I have come round to preferring Machado too but if we don’t land him but get Harper I would be fine assessing our rotation with the deeper bullpen for a half season to determine if we needed a left-handed starter. I also would be fine giving a half season to Franco or Kingery to prove we don't need an 3B upgrade. Getting either one moves the needle and would make it a tremendous offseason for Klentak, etc. So far it has been a very good offseason for the team. I’d be disappointed if we don’t land one but I will still be optimistic of our team’s chances going forward.

Slinging_Southpaw 2019-01-09 10:56:26 UTC #127

The Ryan Howard contract was bad, but if you look at it by what other teams were doing back then, it was a bargain. Amaro jumped the gun, because of what was expected of the Pujols and Feilder contracts. Compared to the GM's that signed those two, Amaro looks like a genius.

Florida_Sunshine 2019-01-09 15:24:42 UTC #128

Article on nbcsportsphilly has us at 157 mil.

zambonir 2019-01-09 15:51:14 UTC #129

But Howard was signed in April of 2010, two years before he would have hit free agency. The Phillies didn't get much of a discount given that. Would the Phillies have been dumb enough to pay Howard that kind of money on the open market in 2012 when Pujols and Fielder were also free agents? I suppose, though of course if that alternate reality had played out exactly the same, he would have been an injured player. They were afraid the Cardinals would sign him. And Middleton and Monty simply didn't want to lose their favorite player.

But it would have been a bargain contract if Howard had been 26, that's for sure.

andyb 2019-01-09 16:12:09 UTC #130

That might be correct. Looks like they are adding another $2 million for 40-man salaries which was not on the Baseball Reference page and then the difference in AAV to salary on some contracts is a bit larger. We still have $50 million to play with and a couple of easy salary trades like Franco if we sign Machado. Getting both Machado and Harper was always going to be challenging though I guess getting both might mean trading a couple of salaries. Cot's spreadsheet below has the more specific AAV math.

zambonir 2019-01-09 16:45:05 UTC #131

It will certainly be easy to move Franco but I feel like the market for him will be a lot smaller, as will the Phillies' leverage, by the time they're ready to do it.

They're also likely to delete $8-10 million in the form of a reliever.

And you just brought up signing both Machado and Harper again, clearly it is still in the back of your mind!

andyb 2019-01-09 17:04:42 UTC #132

The whole point of the AAV post was to speculate on whether we could actually do that! If I were GM I would only do one as I do have long term luxury tax concerns. We diminished some of our flexibility with the McCutchen and Segura deals (though obviously we made the best of the Santana money taking Nicasio). Once we added $50 million in salary for those players plus relievers we kind of robbed ourselves of the flexibility of adding 2 deals totaling $70 million in AAV.

Now my goal is really to get Machado for a $30 million AAV rather than $35 million. I just hope that is where the market is trending and we can take advantage of that. It could be wishful thinking of course.

andyb 2019-01-09 17:26:39 UTC #133

Bowden on Harper and Machado. Bowden thinks his November projection on Harper (10/320) is going to be about right but that his Machado projection (10/310) is a little high. These signings could take a while if true because I imagine both agents really want that $35 million AAV record (Grienke).

fish 2019-01-09 17:50:05 UTC #134

They'll have to eat most of that though.

fish 2019-01-09 17:55:18 UTC #135

andyb:

Bowden on Harper and Machado. Bowden thinks his November projection on Harper (10/320) is going to be about right but that his Machado projection (10/310) is a little high. These signings could take a while if true because I imagine both agents really want that $35 million AAV record (Grienke).
theathletic.com
Bowden: Only four teams are seriously in on Harper or...

The chance to add players of this caliber, at this age, is exceedingly rare. Teams that aren't making any effort to pursue them are likely to regret it.

MLB teams absolutely have plenty of money to spend, but no one can fault them for not wanting to commit 1/4 of their payroll to one player. I want a Tesla, it doesn't mean I can afford to get one.

zambonir 2019-01-09 18:02:00 UTC #136

I don't think so. Maybe a couple of mill tops, but it also depends on the return. If the goal is to shed salary you just take less. And if you trade Neshek he actually only makes $5.75. Presumably Hunter is worth more than Nicasio because he's looked better over the past two years but they both have value. Depends what kind of team (financially) might want 'em.

mdougherty12 2019-01-09 20:32:51 UTC #137

Another article on the 2018 Phillies defense and its varying effects on the starting pitchers:

LoneStarPhan 2019-01-09 20:33:07 UTC #138

Listening to Mad Dog on XM in my car a little while ago and heard him say that Yankee fans are coming out strongly against Machado. I would have to think that his perceived unpopularity with Yankee fans would cool the interest the Yankees have in signing him.

tom81 2019-01-09 20:55:00 UTC #139

The final deal may sort of satisfy both if he gets the $35 million AAV in the first few years with an opt out while the back end years get you at or below the 10/310 if he doesn't opt out..

Philsmania 2019-01-10 00:44:01 UTC #140

If Seidman is correct, the Machado derby is in the final stretch.

And, the Yankees don't seem to be in the thick of the race at this point.