2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[Jazzhead]

Here's a question, If you knew you weren't getting either Machado or Harper, would you have traded Alfaro and Sixto for Realmuto?

Yes, because this team (despite the September swoon) improved significantly last year notwithstanding obvious flaws. The Realmuto deal was part of a series of transactions that addressed most of these flaws - poor up the middle and outfield defense, mediocre offense including a catcher who couldn't block pitches and struck out about 40% of the time. To my mind, what was the point of signing Cutch to an above-market contract if not to compete and win now? Once that step was taken (and Crawford traded for Segura) the die was cast. Realmuto's arrival excites me far more than would Harper's. Harper will almost by definition be overpaid, for the next decade, during most of which time he'll likely be a DH.

Far from being failure, the Phils' offseason appears to me to be a resounding success. Of course, that assumes that we eventually sign Realmuto to an extension, but if we do that then the loss of Sixto will be well worth it. That's what prospects are for, for clubs seeking to contend - as chips to get proven players.

[Jazzhead]

No. That does not mean I would not look to trade Sixto for an improvement elsewhere. Just 2 years of Realmuto on a team that may not be quite good enough is just a bad long term move

But that's not the deal - the plan is for Realmuto to significantly upgrade our catching and be signed to a long term deal. That's exactly the sort of move that unproven prospects are for. Let's stop fetishizing prospects. Heck, let's bundle up some more and trade 'em for Trout.

[bigegypt0417]

Andy Martino on Twitter

[Florida_Sunshine]

Was landing MM or Harper part of the Phillies strategy or ours?

Think carefully now. Haven’t the Phillies, and Klentak, always said there are many ways to improve the club?

I think the fans and media have made acquiring one or both the strategy.

[Philsmania]

Just a feel thing, but I feel like Harper is going to San Fran.

I do know this though: if the Phillies are outbid for Harper (as opposed to him eschewing the Phillies' offer if it's the highest), they will have a PR disaster of epic proportions on their hands. And they will have deserved it.

I'm not so sure of that. A month ago, I would have agreed but on all the Phillies social media sites that I follow, the phans have pretty strongly turned against Harper. Of course, they will forget all about this saga if he signs here but I think their anger will be more at him than the Phillies if he does not.

[julio]

Was landing MM or Harper part of the Phillies strategy or ours?

Think carefully now. Haven’t the Phillies, and Klentak, always said there are many ways to improve the club?

I think the fans and media have made acquiring one or both the strategy.

Given the effort they've put in to the pursuit, I think we have to acknowledge that trying to sign one of these two was part of the strategy - again, assuming the strategy is "get better players."

Where I think we go off the rails is in assuming that the overall strategy is utterly dependent on obtaining one of these two - in assuming that, if the Phils don't sign one of these two, that there's no path forward, that there are no other alternatives that produce a contender, etc.

Part of what's going on here is that many fans, and much of the media, evaluates player value and talent based on name recognition, rather than on analysis. So we have to get one of the biggest names, or the off-season is a failure. (It will be interesting to see how positions shift if the club does fail to land Harper, and somehow still winds up in the post-season.) This is why we see so many in the media (and presumably a lot of fans) arguing that if we don't land Harper, we need to go after Craig Kimbrel or Dallas Keuchel. How would that be equivalent, or even a reasonable "consolation prize"? How? Only because those are familiar "names."

And then there's the A.J. Pollock thought. What would he add? An old centerfielder with a mediocre bat, who would displace a younger player who might well be a better player in 2019, and who would sit on our roster for four years, declining. Again, why? Because he's a familiar name.

[andyb]

But that's not the deal - the plan is for Realmuto to significantly upgrade our catching and be signed to a long term deal. That's exactly the sort of move that unproven prospects are for. Let's stop fetishizing prospects. Heck, let's bundle up some more and trade 'em for Trout.

The ability to re-sign Realmuto after 2 years means absolutely nothing. How many (not sure it was you) on this board argued that there was no extra value in trading for Machado last year? This deal needs to be evaluated as a 2-year deal. Any other offers to Realmuto would also be offers to a 30-year-old catcher and those are the types of deals that are typically not productive as well.

Nobody is feteshizing prospects or whatever that means. Sixto was our best pitching prospect in 15 years and the prospect of another 1/2 starter are real with him even if there is injury risk. Alfaro was already a competent catcher. We gave up a lot for 2 years in which it is very possible the rest of our team is not good enough to win. In essence that is wasting prospect value because the Realmuto move did not make us good enough.

[EDmuch]

I am seeing that the Phils and Harper are "significantly" apart on dollars and that Harper wants to beat Stanton's deal??? This is news? Harper wants to beat Stanton's numbers ???? That must be the worst kept secret in all of baseball. Middleton did all this talking about getting a little crazy with money but was not really prepared to do what would have to be done to get Harper, i.e., agree to the Stanton number ????? That would anger me. I can live without Harper. But it did impress me that Middleton was so brazen about doing what was necessary to get Harper or Stanton and then it turns out they were unwilling to go to $300 million for MM and how they won't do the $330 million to get Harper ???? There really seems to be a gigantic gap between what Middleton has said and what the FO is actually doing.

[andyb]

Was landing MM or Harper part of the Phillies strategy or ours?

Think carefully now. Haven’t the Phillies, and Klentak, always said there are many ways to improve the club?

I think the fans and media have made acquiring one or both the strategy

It is pretty clear that landing a big free agent this winter was part of their long term strategy. Who knows exactly what Klentak's plan was, but it is not as if Middleton was hiding his wishes. It was all very public and the team took a lot of public heat for having a low payroll at a time they were clearing huge profits and not winning.

If the Phillies fail to execute this transaction it is a significant strike against them. A big part of this offseason has also been making up for the huge unforced error of last offseason (signing Santana and moving Hoskins). It is nice they realized that error, but the whole world kind of saw that one coming.

[andyb]

Zips projections for 2019 have us at 83 wins. BP now at 85 (as other team moves took us down from 86).
https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

[allentown]

I wouldn't have done the Realmuto deal without MM or Harper. I agree that Realmuto improves us at catcher and makes us better, but he doesn't make us good enough to advance in the playoffs, which needs to be the goal. I'm higher on Alfaro than many, so don't see Realmuto as a big upgrade. And, it is just 2 years. If we can resign him, it will be for big money and years. My goal has not been to simply get better. I agree that they have done it. My goal is to advance in the playoffs, so I ask what gives us the best chance to do that over the next several years. Sixto has ace potential, and if he achieves it we have far greater odds to reach WS. I think only 25-30% chance he makes that and probably only 40-50% chance he's a solid #3, because of injury concerns. But if he's healthy, he gives us the 6 years to seriously contend. I don't think adding Realmuto does that -- he's likely gone after 2 years and Alfaro might very well surpass him after 2 years. Alfaro improved a lot last year and he is an athletic guy, who is young enough as a catcher to continue improving.

I am especially concerned that the Phillies still don't understand baseball's current market valuation. Spending 'stupid money' turned into drawing a firm line on MM/Harper at $300 million. Unfortunately, I think I over-estimated Middleton's seriousness and resolve. There are still paths forward to serious contention, although I think not this year, but the path forward has narrowed considerably. There are no obvious stars moving up on the farm.

With Aranado off the market, next year's class doesn't look as good and more teams, especially Yankees, will be in a position to compete against us. Whether it is next FA class or whether it is Trout, as long as our 'valuation' stays the same and we draw limits where we did this year, we should not expect to ever sign a primo FA. That puts Middleton/MacPhail/Klentak behind the recent ownership/upper management teams who brought us Thome and Lee. So much for the assurances that he was willing to spend whatever it took to win and this off season to spend 'stupid money'. Middleton has proven himself to be all talk.

[zambonir]

Give me Realmuto any day over a guy who will DH as soon as the NL adopts the rule.

Haha that's gonna be Realmuto too.

[Philsmania]

They way I look at it, it's all about building up the pharm system. Without doing that, my fear is that we will basically have what the Mariners had until this offseason, a good team but not one that is good enough to crack the postseason and not good enough to compete with an ascendant Astros team in their own division or compete against powerhouse teams in the East for a wildcard. They had their "Machado/Harper" signing in Cano and that still didn't make much of a difference in the end. So, they blew things up and started over again this offseason. Regardless of whether or not we sign Harper, will we find ourselves at the same juncture in two or three years due to our mediocre farm system?

[zambonir]

I am seeing that the Phils and Harper are "significantly" apart on dollars and that Harper wants to beat Stanton's deal??? This is news? Harper wants to beat Stanton's numbers ???? That must be the worst kept secret in all of baseball. Middleton did all this talking about getting a little crazy with money but was not really prepared to do what would have to be done to get Harper, i.e., agree to the Stanton number ????? That would anger me. I can live without Harper. But it did impress me that Middleton was so brazen about doing what was necessary to get Harper or Stanton and then it turns out they were unwilling to go to $300 million for MM and how they won't do the $330 million to get Harper ???? There really seems to be a gigantic gap between what Middleton has said and what the FO is actually doing.

I basically agree. If that's how this is all really going it seems like the Phillies are either stubbornly sticking to their "valuation" after all, and/or they really thought that because of the leaguewide trend, they'd be able to get one of these guys without going higher, and that Boras had no prayer of getting there from anyone else.

I agree with very little Jazzhead says but I think the part about the NL West arms race is correct. The Padres are now a real threat to the Dodgers going forward and the Giants are the Dodgers rival. If they don't get him it's looking like the Dodgers will end up being the team that got used here though - both to drive the Phillies out and to drive the Giants' offer up.

I will definitely be disappointed if Harper signs somewhere for $330 or even $350 and we hear the Phillies did not get close. But I sure don't blame him for wanting the combo of the big $ and the West Coast. If these two teams had been associated with him for the last three months (and the Dodgers hadn't signed Pollock) we never would have expected to get him, though we certainly still expected the Phillies to try to outbid them.

Interesting Mariners comparison Philsmania, since DiPoto and Klentak are so close.

[allentown]

it seems like the Phillies are either stubbornly sticking to their "valuation" after all, and/or they really thought that because of the leaguewide trend, they'd be able to get one of these guys without going higher, and that Boras had no prayer of getting there from anyone else.

The 'offers are going to be lower than expected' school of thought wasn't voiced anywhere I saw, until long after Middleton made his 'stupid money' statement. At that time, the thinking was at least $350 million to sign either of these guys. MM came in well under the expected cost at the time Middleton made his bs boast. I guess the team held the charade together long enough to sell some season tickets. That trick isn't going to work a second time.

[zambonir]

According to Nightengale's sources the Phillies are completely in. They just won't get him if another team is right there with them.

Agent Scott Boras, starting to receive the offers he envisioned when Bryce Harper’s free agency began 117 days ago, has begun circling back with other teams in recent days, three people with direct knowledge of the negotiations told USA TODAY Sports, seeing if they are in or out in the final hand of this high-stakes poker game.

These people, who declined to speak publicly since talks are on-going, have been told the Dodgers, Giants and Phillies have vowed to provide Harper with either the biggest overall free-agent contract in North American sports history, or the largest average annual salary anyone has ever received in the sport.

Would you go to $375? $40 million AAV for six years? I probably wouldn't, and that's where the disappointment goes back to Manny, since they could have had him for $325 and no draft pick. Unlike Harper he didn't particularly want to be on the West Coast.

It does seem to me that once they saw what the market for Manny was and that no other team had even gone higher than $250 or $275, they thought they could get Harper for just a hair more than Manny, rather than for $350, because there was no indication at that point than any other team would go there either. Now somebody has raised the pot. Problem is the West Coast thing is the best hand too.

[Philsmania]

Many people seem to forget that Middleton's "stupid money" comment came with the caveat "We would just not prefer to be completely stupid."

[Philsmania]

According to Nightengale's sources the Phillies are completely in. They just won't get him if another team is right there with them.

Agent Scott Boras, starting to receive the offers he envisioned when Bryce Harper’s free agency began 117 days ago, has begun circling back with other teams in recent days, three people with direct knowledge of the negotiations told USA TODAY Sports, seeing if they are in or out in the final hand of this high-stakes poker game.

These people, who declined to speak publicly since talks are on-going, have been told the Dodgers, Giants and Phillies have vowed to provide Harper with either the biggest overall free-agent contract in North American sports history, or the largest average annual salary anyone has ever received in the sport.

Would you go to $375? $40 million AAV for six years? I probably wouldn't, and that's where the disappointment goes back to Manny, since they could have had him for $325 and no draft pick. Unlike Harper he didn't particularly want to be on the West Coast.

It does seem to me that once they saw what the market for Manny was and that no other team had even gone higher than $250 or $275, they thought they could get Harper for just a hair more than Manny, rather than for $350, because there was no indication at that point than any other team would go there either. Now somebody has raised the pot. Problem is the West Coast thing is the best hand too.

I do agree that the tactical mistake was concentrating on Harper at the expense of Machado. I always thought Harper would be the tougher of the two to sign. Perhaps the marketability concerns had something to do with it or perhaps it was something else. However, it does appear that once we got to January, Harper, not Machado, was the apple of their eyes...or, perhaps, Middleton's eyes. Did the "Johnny Hustle" stuff or Machado's explanations for them rub the big boss the wrong way? We can only speculate, I guess.

If Klentak was telling the truth about Machado's offer from the Padres exceeding their valuation of him, it could be that properly valuing players is a blind spot for him. I keep thinking back to his rookie season as a GM when, in hindsight, he appeared to be the only GM in baseball who thought Hellickson was worth a first round pick (nobody would offer him value for one at the deadline and nobody offered Hellickson anything with the QO comp pick attached to him forcing him to take the QO).

[Taudawg]

Done!

[EastFallowfield]

Hearing Harper to Phils breaking news, off to a new thread.