2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[Jazzhead]

From what I am hearing Harper to the Dodgers seems more likely. I have a serious question for all you CBA experts out there.....could the Dodgers trade A.J. Pollock right now? I'm guessing not.

I'd think they could unless Pollock's deal includes a no trade clause. Pollock's the guy I wanted us to sign all along.

Other than a reflexive reaction to an NL West arms race, I still can't see why the Dodgers want Harper. They have one of the best and deepest outfields in the league - Pollock, Bellinger, Peterson, Verdugo, Taylor. The Giants are the team with the need, and for which a Harper deal would jump-start their rebuild. That's why I think the Giants will sign him to a deal comparable to Machado/Arenado.

What the Phillies offer that the Giants do not is a team on the come, Realmuto, Segura, Cutch, Hoskins - Harper fits perfectly in our lineup and the Phils with him would be poised to soar. But those sorts of concerns don't appear to animate the man.

It's time to move on.

[julio]

If it walks and quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck. The evidence tells me that Harper and Boras are playing us to set the market, and not negotiating in good faith. Angelo this morning used the word "disrespect".

IMHO, your citing "Angelo" (Cataldi?) doesn't buttress your argument. When your "evidence" comes from talk radio hosts...

[Squire]

Thank you. Very very helpful. I mean the Dodgers are just in an odd spot because their post-Pollock pursuit of Harper doesn't make much sense. They already have Joc Pederson-A.J. Pollock-Cody Bellinger- Alex Verdugo -Kike Hernandez with Max Muncy at 1B. I'd think they'd LOVE to get out of the Pollock deal if they are adding Harper. I'd make them eat like 1/4 of the Pollock deal (pay Pollock another 5-8million for him to agree to a trade). They'd save 3/4 of the contract plus tax. I'd offer like Cole Irvin or Drew Anderson

[allentown]

That really depends on timing -- a fast deal now is worth more to them, since it helps them compete with SF. If we want Pollock, the big advantage is we aren't the one losing a draft pick to get him. I don't care as much about getting that much money back, especially since LA's goal is to get $ relief. Give them less than Irvin and possibly demand a prospect back and we don't get $.

[Squire]

Zero problem with this. I actually think its a creative good outcome for both teams. But I'm not optimistic that Pollock would be that interested...even for money.

[bigegypt0417]

Zolecki said he thought that harper would announce yesterday but now believes it will be the Giants that he signs with.

[Jazzhead]

IMHO, your citing "Angelo" (Cataldi?) doesn't buttress your argument. When your "evidence" comes from talk radio hosts...

I admit to being tickled to hear Angelo this morning make the same assertion that Harper/Boras aren't exhibiting good faith that I made on this board several days ago. And he's right - it amounts to disrespect - of both the team and the phan base. The Phillies have been working hard to make this deal happen, and Harper/Boras are just playing with us.

Disagree all you want with me - it won't be the first time. But I can see with my own eyes what's going on here. As long as he's out of the division, may he live long and prosper.

[fish]

And he's right - it amounts to disrespect - of both the team and the phan base.

Maybe as a player/agent observing what’s going on with other players in the league in free agency getting squeezed this winter there is no sympathy to putting the squeeze on a couple of billionaires.

The end result is that the fans here will hait him if he signs elsewhere, but he doesn’t owe us anything when making decisions about his livelihood.

...and yes, I’d bring the family out to boo him.

[julio]

Thank you. Very very helpful. I mean the Dodgers are just in an odd spot because their post-Pollock pursuit of Harper doesn't make much sense. They already have Joc Pederson-A.J. Pollock-Cody Bellinger- Alex Verdugo -Kike Hernandez with Max Muncy at 1B. I'd think they'd LOVE to get out of the Pollock deal if they are adding Harper. I'd make them eat like 1/4 of the Pollock deal (pay Pollock another 5-8million for him to agree to a trade). They'd save 3/4 of the contract plus tax. I'd offer like Cole Irvin or Drew Anderson

They would have to structure some kind of complex deal. The section I cited above limits the amount of cash that the Phils could offer the Dodgers (to $50k) as part of a trade for Pollock. They could offer players; if they arranged some kind of multi-player swap they might be able to incorporate a more substantial cash exchange (putatively for another player), but such a trade would, I would think, require signoff from the Commissioner's Office.

I don't know that it would make a lot of sense. Pollock's a center fielder, which is worth something - but who does he displace? Herrera? If you pick up Pollock and push Herrera to a corner (Williams to the bench)... you've added another right-handed bat, a hitter whose OPS+ the past two seasons was 103 - basically average. Nick Williams' OPS+ the past two seasons was 105.... so it looks like this move would hinge purely on the improvement in outfield defense, and you'd make the roster even more right-handed than it is now. You'd take on at least most of Pollock's contract to do this, and you'd be adding a guy who's 31 years old.

[andyb]

Pederson seems more of a target for the Phillies if the Dodgers signed Harper. Better off in a corner defensively, but also the high OBP that this regime craves.

[Squire]

Perhaps....but he'll cost real value in trade since he offers no salary/tax relief to the Dodgers.

[Lawman]

Assuming recent reports are to be believed, Jim Duquette is saying Phillies currently in 3rd place. They are at $300 MM range and that's not enough.

SPORTSRADIO 94WIP (SportsRadioWIP)

[Lawman]

Here's a question, If you knew you weren't getting either Machado or Harper, would you have traded Alfaro and Sixto for Realmuto?

[David_Criss]

Yes because you added a top flight catcher for at least the next two years.The Phillies are much improved over last year regardless of not adding a MM or Harper.

[fish]

Here's a question, If you knew you weren't getting either Machado or Harper, would you have traded Alfaro and Sixto for Realmuto?

Yes yes yes. There is no wave of prospects coming to get this team over the top, no big free agent “next year” worth waiting for. Every move should be about winning the next 3 years. Harper or not, every move should continue to be with that goal in mind.

[el-pietro]

I wouldn't. I'd save Sixto for a bigger move, if you can't get one of these guys in a FA deal I'd be looking at a trade for a player of similar talent.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

Me either, I'm thinking more long term. Catcher wasn't a priority for me with Alfaro already in the fold.

[julio]

Here's a question, If you knew you weren't getting either Machado or Harper, would you have traded Alfaro and Sixto for Realmuto?

Yes - and I think the Phils would answer the same way. The Realmuto deal wasn't part of some pre-planned strategy that assumed Machado/Harper. The Phils have had interest in Realmuto for a while, but he wasn't considered available. When he became available, they moved to acquire him.

If you define their overall strategy as "get better," then identifying Realmuto as desirable, and acting to get him when the Marlins made him available, was part of that strategy. Pursuing Machado/Harper is also part of that strategy. But I would like to think that the strategic approach has been developed to not be dependent on every pursuit of improvement being successful - because almost by definition, they're not all going to be successful.

I guess that's why I'm not particularly interested in helping the Dodgers by taking Pollock off their hands. He's not good enough to be a significant improvement...and the Phils already made a better move this winter to improve the outfield, in signing Andrew McCutchen, who is only one year older than Pollock.

[andyb]

No. That does not mean I would not look to trade Sixto for an improvement elsewhere. Just 2 years of Realmuto on a team that may not be quite good enough is just a bad long term move. Alfaro is likely going to be a league average catcher for 5 years and that is a better risk for a team that still needs to improve in several ways.

The biggest move they have done this winter is getting Hoskins out of the outfield. Everything else has been small improvements that made the team older and cost small pieces of the future.

[schooldoc]

Just a feel thing, but I feel like Harper is going to San Fran.

I do know this though: if the Phillies are outbid for Harper (as opposed to him eschewing the Phillies' offer if it's the highest), they will have a PR disaster of epic proportions on their hands. And they will have deserved it.