2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[Lawman]

Jon Heyman (JonHeyman)

[zambonir]

Hilarious. Literally no new information other than the inevitable/obvious fact that it is February 17 and the pace was going to pick up regardless.

Heyman has always been Boras's top guy though. So for him to say the Phillies are in the lead is just as likely an attempt to get another team to change that as a piece of objective news.

[allentown]

I am expecting a comeback from Herrera. He started last season so strong and then it all fell apart and he never recovered. I believe some players can get so messed up mentally that only winter can end their slump. We saw that with Pat Burrell. To trade now is to sell very low out of one season of frustration, really 2/3 of a season of frustration. He has been positive dWAR until last season, although his dWAR had been slipping. I don't think we have another full time CF candidate. Quinn's durability is a big question. Harper or Altherr or Williams aren't more than brief fill-in CF candidates. Altherr is a year older than Quinn and trajectory has been down. I'm not going to ding Quinn too much on one poor defensive season, when he was funked much of that season, had an awful defensive LF and the Phillies were tinkering with their approach to OF positioning. I'd risk losing Altherr and carry 5 OFs if we sign Harper.

[David_Criss]

IF Harper signs with the Phillies that takes them out of the running for Machado, right? That can't be good news for MM - how many teams are left with long term deals???? Wonder if these rumors would get MM to quickly decide to call Philly. Whatever will be will be.

[zambonir]

For sure, directly or indirectly the Phillies could be signalling to MM that he needs to sign with them this week (and for less $ than he'd like, though more than the White Sox or Padres have offered) or they'll just go with Harper.

I don't think Machado is going to be left with nothing though. In addition to those two teams, if you take the Phillies out of the equation, the Yankees could try to sneak back in.

Saw some nobody tweet that the Cubs have been told they'll be offered one chance to outbid whoever Harper plans to sign with, ha.

[Lawman]

I think Herrera should speak with Ruoz about the benefits of obtaining a doctor's Rx for Adderall or Ritalin.

[Austinfan]

We just struggled through a year with bad defense and you want McCutchen and Harper in CF? Gag.
Kingery could handle CF in a pinch, but to play well he'd need time to develop better instincts.

The point of this season's moves was to strengthen, not weaken, the defense.
If Herrera is in shape he's a plus CF, and Quinn has plus plus potential.
If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
And Herrera has more offensive potential than Williams, when he's hot, he's really hot, just has to learn to sustain it.

[zambonir]

I prefer Herrera, but last year he was bad enough that you can't assume he's an upgrade over McCutchen or Harper in CF... and those two guys would only play there if Quinn was hurt. If Quinn were to be hurt long-term you'd have to go looking for another CF.

I would argue that if they sign Harper, they have not truly improved the OF defense, except in LF. where anyone would be better and McCutchen is basically slumming (but is not good enough to play the other two spots). Herrera and Harper are both coming off negative seasons. It is broke, that's why they're trying to fix it!

It's just like any theoretical trade - what best addresses short and long-term needs, both on the team and in a trade return. If you give up on Herrera it has to be because he gets you more in return than Williams does. But that's not necessariy the case for now.

[tom81]

We are in win now mode, no time to trade Herrera for anything other than a possible 3b upgrade or ace/lefty pitcher.

[zambonir]

Which I think could have happened if they'd wanted to trade for a pitcher badly enough.

But even in win-now mode, if Williams gets you one prospect and Herrera gets you two, I'd take the two, because you'll need prospects for the July deals.

Kind of interesting that there's been so much attention on Franco/Kingery and Machado, and on Herrera/Quinn but I haven't seen anyone ask Nick Williams how he might feel about being odd man out. If they do sign Harper instead of Machado, the hindsight will be more about whether they should have signed McCutchen, even if his main attributes (leadership and OBP) are not provided by Williams or Herrera.

[nycphils]

I’d expect they will let Altherr go - they need Odubel to backup Quinn if he doesn’t win the CF job, and he’s under a reasonable contract and has a much better track record than Altherr. Williams will have value as a bench player and a trade chip.

[andyb]

But conversely, he was a good defensive player for the two seasons before that, so why wouldn't it be fixable? He's too young to have just lost it physically.

I am not sure about that with Herrera. The statcast running numbers were really bad this year. His stolen bases decline a lot in 2017 and further in 2018. For whatever reason he has lost some athleticism. At the plate he compensated with more power, but I am not sure that approach is sustainable as his last 2/3 of the season were pretty mediocre.

One can't just assume regression to the mean. Tools matter too and if Herrera's athletic tools have declined then I might bet on the younger and cheaper Williams as the one to improve, especially as Herrera is more expensive yet still has trade value.

[zambonir]

Well, if we do think it is physical I guess we also have to assume the Phillies knew what they were talking about when they called out his conditioning and demanded he get in better shape. One way or another they are hoping he either improves his trade value or his value to the Phillies.

One would have to guess that, as with Hernandez, they fielded offers for him and didn't find anything they liked. Because even w/o Harper they could have done it if they really wanted to.

Altherr seems like a candidate for the old nothing-in-return PTBNL trade. Though it might be better for him if he was released before salary gets guaranteed (not financially, but in terms of the chance to pick his own team, and maybe catch on with more teams who'd be interested at lower salary).

[allentown]

I haven't seen anyone ask Nick Williams how he might feel about being odd man out.

Nick Williams was very bad defensively last year = dWAR of -2.4, almost a full game fall-off from 2017. This is another reason I want to see what Odubel can do defensively this year. It is beyond strange that Williams in his second MLB season at age 24 and Odubel at age 26 both got markedly worse defensively in the same year the Phillies were stashing Hoskins in LF and, probably more importantly, changing their OF defensive positioning. It's just too much to be purely coincidental and purely on the players. Our whole OF defense stank last season and was far worse than in 2017. Williams also declined offensively last season. To move him is to sell cheap -- I want to see what he can do this season.

[zambonir]

To move him is to sell cheap -- I want to see what he can do this season.

Sure, but that is not actually possible on a team with Bryce Harper and a RH-hitting LF who will start 140 games, which is the only scenario in which we're talking about these potential trades. If his future is to stay on the Phillies and be a 5th OF and bench bat (certainly there would be plenty of opportunities to PH for the entire infield when playing late-game match-ups) so be it, but I don't think we'd learn anything new about him, or up his trade value.

I tend to think Williams was just overachieving slightly in 2017 and shouldn't be in RF but given they did indeed fail all three OFs (even Hoskins, they obviously didn't expect him to be that bad) we shall see I guess.

[EDmuch]

Frankly, my choice for CF is Quinn. It is annoying that the FO suggests there is a battle at 3b between Kingery who has done nothing to be elevated to a potential starter versus Franco while Quinn, who has done well when given a chance is not considered to be a competitor to Herrera.

[bigegypt0417]

Oh no...is kingery your next dom brown/jp Crawford?

Kingerys book already closed?

[andyb]

Kingery's problem is his best position is 2B. Arm is not great for the other side of the infield and the offense is not as well suited for 3B. He is probably a really good utility infielder no matter what happens. We just won't know much more about him until he plays 2B. A guy whose offense might be worth 1-2 wins is not that valuable at a position where his defense is a negative or neutral. Put him at 2B where his range is good and arm is fine - then you have a valuable player.

Like it or not, the Phillies are hedging on Kingery because they are not sure he is as good as Cesar. Today that is probably true so it is the right call.

[EDmuch]

Silly boy, BE. The next target is Herrea,

[el-pietro]

I think that Kapler has also said that CF is a competition between Herrera and Quinn, though I can't find an exact quote.

Odubel Herrera will have to fight for Phillies' starting center field job