2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

zambonir 2019-02-17 03:38:46 UTC #671

Well, if Boras is feeding Bowden that should actually mean he's trying to elicit a better bid from a second team - or put pressure on the Phillies to meet a price (be it money, years, opt-outs or otherwise) that they haven't yet. This could still be weeks away if so.

Again, grain of salt, but every report about SF has said they would only offer a short-term deal and are not really on him unless that changes.

And it doesn't seem characteristic for Kapler and Klentak to care about "fire and desire." Or his star power. Middleton maybe. But Klentak and the rest of the front office have been Manny guys since their Orioles days.

If we get him Harper will be divisive, just like Schilling was. Always a fine line between competitive fire and selfishness. But if they win with him it won't matter. It will always matter in DC because they did not. The Nats can get away with not re-signing him because sure, he's a big star, but they never won anything, and it's just as easy to blame the dysfunction and parade of managers on a guy like him than the owner or GM. Probably truth to both.

bigegypt0417 2019-02-17 03:47:36 UTC #672

Exactly...every team that isn't signing him will make it seem like that was the plan.

Austinfan 2019-02-17 03:55:35 UTC #673

The problem for Boras has already become apparent, teams that don't think they have a shot go sign other players, ensuring they can't bid. As this process continues, there are fewer legitimate buyers and less pressure on Klentak to overpay.

If Klentak gets either player at a price below our expectations in October, we may have to start calling him "cool hand" Klentak, after last off season and this one.

zambonir 2019-02-17 04:09:42 UTC #674

Boswell's a bit of a fuddy-duddy at this point but when he says Harper hasn't been in the Nats' plans for months that's probably accurate as far as it goes. They - definitely the GM and probably the younger Lerner - were ready to move on once he didn't take the offer. That they circled back was either due diligence or the influence of the elder Lerner.

I do think it's funny that anyone would say Harper is preferable to Machado because of the "hustle" thing. As Boswell writes:

When the most famous player on the team can’t go 10 days without failing to run out a groundball or overthrowing a cutoff man by 15 feet or throwing to the wrong base or being caught unprepared in the outfield or on the bases, it’s hard to demand total alertness from the other 24.

I think you put up with it from either of them and the Phillies have two players (Herrera and Williams) who carry the same kind of rep. But it could go bad for Harper just as easily as for Machado. Harper will have more of a honeymoon because he's a bigger star and a white guy who somehow comes off as being blue-collar when he's anything but (love Boswell's dis of the hair flips too). But there'd be less pressure on Manny I think.

bigegypt0417 2019-02-17 15:37:16 UTC #675

Harper has offers on the table at this point and the money hasn't changed all that much....every agent in baseball knows the Phillies want to sign Harper or Machado.

andyb 2019-02-17 17:15:42 UTC #676

If the Phillies sign Harper, they will have McCutchen and Harper in the 2 corner spots. The Inquirer talks about open competition for Herrera in CF already with Quinn, Altherr, and Williams. At the very least we would have 6 OF with Harper so the roster options would be:

Waive Altherr - Out of options, injury prone, coming off a bad year (though his offensive history is better)
Trade Williams - No real position as he is not a good CF. Some value in a trade
Trade Herrera - Decent value with affordable contract and options. Selling low though. Supposedly in better shape this year.
Trade Quinn - Can't count on him to be 150-game CF. Should have trade value. But low cost option for a few years that has decent upside and is our best defensive CF and baserunner

My choice would be to trade Herrera. Williams is more of a pure power bat and I would love to keep him around and get him several starts a week plus pinch hitting and injury insurance. Trading Herrera has some risk of exposing Quinn, but I also think the team can live with the other CF options (Altherr, Williams, Harper, McCutchen) for some period of time and maybe Haseley will be another option by midseason. Acceptable risk to me and would lessen the mid-term payroll concerns a bit.

The more conventional decision would be to trade Williams. I just worry a bit that he has some improvement left because of his age and his better plate discipline last year. Whether his defense will improve is another question, but he certainly has the tools to improve there. If we do get the DH in a few years it would also be nice to have extra power bats on the team.

Trading Herrera has a cost, but it would not be the worst thing to add a couple more decent prospects after recent trades. They might even think of a creative way to trade for a LH starter.

zambonir 2019-02-17 17:25:49 UTC #677

I think this is right but I'm still not sure there is a path for Altherr to make the 25. I mean, in theory there already isn't one now, so if you get Harper and trade Herrera the math is the same. Not carrying a better bench bat or infield player as the 4th bench guy gets you there but if Quinn is your CF he's no longer really that additional SS option. Anyway, just saying it is a lot more appealing to keep him if Quinn is your CF.

And having Williams as a power bat and bench bat just doesn't seem as important if you have Harper.

I guess I still don't really believe Harper is our guy. The LHB thing is not insignificant, but overall, they just don't need an OF nearly as much (and I still think they are more done with Franco than they are with Williams or Herrera). There is also the question of defense.

Austinfan 2019-02-17 17:42:39 UTC #678

Can't trade Herrera, there are only two CFs on the roster, and Quinn is an injury waiting to happen.
Kingery could probably move there, but I'd want him to play the spot in winter ball before making that move.
Altherr can play there but lacks CF range.

Williams becomes redundant if they sign Harper, with Haseley and Moniak on the way. So he's the obvious trade bait.

Lawman 2019-02-17 17:56:48 UTC #679

zambonir 2019-02-17 18:07:06 UTC #680

I saw that rumor yesterday from what was obviously a super-dubious (if not fake) Twitter account. Stay tuned I guess?

It's true that if you trade Herrera you weaken CF, but it's not true that you don't have anyone to play the position. As Andy noted McCutchen and Harper could both do it in a pinch. Altherr too. And I think Kingery would have played a lot more OF last year if he hadn't become the SS. You could put him there. Heck, Herrera was a 2B too (even if he did play winter ball).

I think it's just harder to trade Herrera, market will be smaller for him and harder to get a fair return coming off last season. Whereas Williams' floor and ceiling are both pretty known and you can probably get fair value.

tom81 2019-02-17 18:41:19 UTC #681

Andy you did leave out one option, I’m sure a very unlikely one, but nonetheless an option. Go with 5 of’s Quinn being the backup SS, and optioning Williams to AAA. This affords the team time to reestablish Altherr’s value and gives the team insurance until Haseley is ready.

David_Criss 2019-02-17 18:43:08 UTC #682

I think you waive Altherr or Y. Rios if Harper is signed.Cozens is also around, too, so you can trade Williams with a Tommy Hunter in the near future, hopefully after a good Spring to get maximum return.

zambonir 2019-02-17 18:59:53 UTC #683

You don't have to waive a reliever to make room for an OF. There can always be room on the 40. It's the 25 that's the problem (as long as there's no indication this team wants a five-man bench).

Quinn still have options? Obviously Kingery does, but...

andyb 2019-02-17 19:10:13 UTC #684

While one could technically do that, I find it hard to believe that they would keep Altherr and option Williams when Williams has been by far the better player. Plus you have the prospect of a legitimately unhappy player being optioned even though he needs no minor league seasoning. That could also be a waste of Williams' trade value and to little benefit (i..e gaming the roster).

I want the team to think out of the box. I am disappointed by Herrera's regression last year and think we have CF options beyond Quinn. I am just never convinced by a player that has a bad year and then supposedly gets in good shape for the next season. Something was off defensively with Herrera last year and I worry that it is not easily fixable.

BTW I am fine with Quinn being the extra backup IF if we keep 5 OF. Walding is really our 26th man and he'll probably be up and down from AAA all season unless we need the 40-man spot for something else (in which case he has a good chance of being claimed by another team).

tom81 2019-02-17 19:10:47 UTC #685

Quinn and Altherr are out of options, Williams isn’t.

David_Criss 2019-02-17 19:11:45 UTC #686

Actually the 40-man roster stands at 39 right now, so no-one has to be waived. Regarding Rios - how many relievers are out of options?
If they sign Keuchel you can add Velasquez with Williams. I like the team where they are now. I like the possibility of adding a Keuchel or Harper and having two decent trade chips for now or in July.

Squire 2019-02-17 19:20:12 UTC #687

Weekend update:
Bowden says Phililes and Harper are close
Heyman says Harper contract talks have intensified and the Phillies are the current favorite.
Former Marlins Exec David Samson says the rumor is 10 years/310 million from Phillies to Harper but I think most people believe Samson is basing this info off a fake twitter account

Lawman 2019-02-17 19:20:57 UTC #688

zambonir 2019-02-17 19:37:10 UTC #689

But conversely, he was a good defensive player for the two seasons before that, so why wouldn't it be fixable? He's too young to have just lost it physically. And if it's mental, well, he wasn't exactly the sharpest knife in the OF drawer during the years he played well either. If it was the coaching or analytics then I guess you'd say either they did a bad job or he's a bad fit for their system.

I mean, I think all the same stuff about Franco. He was where Herrera was last year, except he was coming off two disappointing years, not one. So I'm not convinced by his comeback (yet). And I'm pretty sure Herrera will end up back at his usual .780 OPS (which was also Franco's 'comeback'). So it really does turn on the defense.

The other problem is all your reservations about Herrera are the same reservations an opposing GM would have, and he's a long-term, not inexpensive commitment.

zambonir 2019-02-17 19:38:23 UTC #690

So, to review: Friday some radio guy says it will be done "today" and he thinks it's the Giants. Saturday Bowden says the Phillies have "rounded third" with him. Sunday Heyman says they are merely the favorite.

Phillies or not it will be fascinating if Harper goes first.

(oops didn't see Squire's post but you left out the DC radio guy. More from that one here:

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