2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[zambonir]

Well, I don't want to choose! Why not both?

But also, if you win and sell more tickets (and increase other revenue streams) because of a star you can afford to spend more money (whether on luxury taxes or player development or front office stuff). Of course if you go to the WS eventually you sell the place out regardless. And non-stars become stars.

I don't think the difference between Machado and Harper is going to be big enough for it to matter. They are close as players and I think they will still be close $-wise. I think they should sign the best player, not the second-best player because he's cheaper (but also not the second-best player because he has more star power). In this case there's no wrong answer. (Heck, I don't even like Harper. Which is another kind of star power.)

[Florida_Sunshine]

No, I don’t think that’s it. Right or wrong, there have been a couple articles saying that MM and then Harper did not want to be here. It doesn’t matter whether true, false, or made up, that creates impressions. This will all be over soon. I doubt we get either one.

[David_Criss]

I am starting to wonder if the 10/300 million deal from the Nats has been pulled. If it were still on the table, why wouldn't he jump at that at this stage of the game?

[David_Criss]

No, I don’t think that’s it. Right or wrong, there have been a couple articles saying that MM and then Harper did not want to be here. It doesn’t matter whether true, false, or made up, that creates impressions. This will all be over soon. I doubt we get either one

Williams and Franco aren't the worse players to play regularly. Next year Rendon and Arnando are available. I'd take Rendon.

[zambonir]

Harper rejected that $300 million offer in October. I would not assume it remained on the table after that. It was then reported he met with ownership and they made another offer in January but who knows if that's even true (or if it was a better offer).

Seems like some people here just don't want them and some people here have the Philly phan inferiority complex (plus years of damage from our cheap owners) and therefore assume we can't get them. Me, I want one of them and say we're still the frontrunner for both (not that we'll sign both, but we can have one or the other).

I don't think Arenado or Rendon are going to hit free agency. And given what a drag free agency is for the players, why would they want to? Rockies sound close on their guy and if the Nats don't get Harper back they'll probably lock up Rendon pretty easily.

[zambonir]

From today's Philly.com newsletter

Hey Phillies fans, spring training is finally here | Extra Innings

The Phillies traded for catcher J.T. Realmuto, and their projection improved to 86-76. The Phillies remained in third place, but Realmuto was enough to put them in the hunt for the second wild-card spot. A superstar, Baseball Prospectus projects, would be enough to push the Phillies past Washington’s 89 wins for the division lead and the second-best mark in the National League.

Harper, Baseball Prospectus projects, would be worth 4.6 wins. Machado would be worth 3.8. Nick Williams, who Harper would replace in the lineup, and Maikel Franco, who Machado would replace, are both projected to be worth less than one win. The Phillies still expect to enter the season with Machado or Harper, yet nothing seems imminent as spring training nears. But the upgrades are obvious.

[BostonRoss]

Well neither one of us has to choose! Or gets to choose!

I don't particularly like either one of them, but I want to win. I don think Machado is better, partly because of his position (either one), partly because of his defense, and partly because Harper had one super year that inflates his performance average over the past several. I think consistency implies a better likelihood of sustained greatness.

I do think that Machado will end up getting a lot less than Harper, but we will see.

[allentown]

And they won't lose a draft choice and they save a place for Trout.

[bigegypt0417]

what about machado's defense do you not like?

[BostonRoss]

what about machado's defense do you not like?

I do like Machado's defense; he is much better than Harper. I see there was a typo in my post; "don" should have been "do."

[el-pietro]

I've been very much in the Manny over Harper camp all off season and still am. Because I value his better defence and positional value over Harpers better bat. But given the likelihood that Universal DH is on its way sooner rather than later, I'm less worried about that gap. Harpers left handed bat is another thing in his favour, though handedness shouldn't be a key element in a 7+ year deal.

I do think the lineup looks a lot more balanced with Harper in it than Machado.

A lineup headed by McCutchen (R), Harper (L), Hoskins (R) and Realmuto (R) looks very promising. That same lineup with Machado is very right handed, you probably end up with Cesar or Odúbel in there somewhere to break up the righties.

I'd still prefer Manny but right now I just want one of them, either of them, to sign and end this torturous off-season!

[allentown]

Cesar or Odubel should be near the top of the order for OBP and speed.

[el-pietro]

In a lineup with Harper or Machado Cesar has the 3rd highest 2018 OBP (Harper .393, McCutchen .368, Machado .367, Hernandez .356, Hoskins .354).

If you build the lineup using just OBP then sure, but Hernandez has the lowest SLG of that group by a significant margin and while hes fast hes not exactly a massive base-stealing threat.

Despite his injury his raw 2018 numbers aren't that far below his career levels either (.356 vs .357 for OBP and .362 vs .372 for SLG).

Odúbel had the lowest OBP (.310) of any of our 2019 projected lineup with or without Harper/Machado, though his career (.336) is more reasonably middle of the pack and is actually almost identical to Mannys career (.335).

I realise this is very basic stuff but I don't think Cesar deserves a place near the top of the order on merit assuming we see one of the two big bats come in.

I would suggest Harper, Machado, Hoskins, McCutchen, Realmuto and Segura are all better hitters than both Odúbel and Cesar. I love OBP but it doesn't tell us much on its own. Someone who walks 35% of the time but never gets on base any other time isn't more valuable than someone who hits a HR 10% of the time. At least not in a vacuum.

I wanted to check this so took a look at Baseball References Projected Plate Appearances, Total Bases, Walks, Hit By Pitches and Stolen Bases-Caught Stealing for each player for 2019 and Cesar ranks 10th in Total bases + Walks + HBP + SB -CS per Plate Appearance behind only Maikel Franco. Using this very crude metric to build an "ideal" lineup gives us the following:

Harper .583 Base Per Plate Appearance
McCutchen .578
Hoskins .574
Machado .563
Realmuto .501
(Williams.485 if no Harper - this surprised me)
Segura .480
Herrea .479
Hernandez .471
(Franco .469 if no Machado)

If we use this metric and assume BRefs projections are accurate and that everyone gets the exact same number of PAss then the best offensive lineup possible is unsurprisingly the one with both Harper and Machado, followed by Harper and Franco marginally ahead of Manny and Williams. Science. Using this clearly brilliant metric the gap between them is so marginal that defence should be used to prioritise who to sign.
So we should sign Manny. I've come full circle.

Edit: In case it's not obvious I'm currently bored at work and killing time.

[bigegypt0417]

so Harper has communicated he isn't interested or looking at short term deals.

[julio]

so Harper has communicated he isn't interested or looking at short term deals.

Why would he? He already has long-term offers in hand, or strong indications of such long-term offers. Boras is just playing a waiting game, to see how high the bidders will go before the gavel comes down...and the gavel doesn't have to come down for several more weeks.

[zambonir]

I would not use Cesar or Odubel's 2018 as their true measures, but I also agree that with McCutchen and Segura on board, either of them could end up hitting 6-9 (if pitcher hits 8) instead of 1-2 and it really doesn't make a difference. McCutchen and Cesar are both high OBP guys and Segura and Herrera are both guys whose OBP comes from BA. Not really sure how they all compare in terms of a running game. Cesar stole the most bases, but he also gets caught. Odubel didn't run at all. McCutchen has presumably slowed a lot. Of course SBs are likely not a priority for our manager either.

I think the beat writers tend to know a little bit about internal thinking (just like they all know the Phillies are still aggressively still after Harper or MM). This was Scott Lauber's attempt at a line-up though I still think we'll see McCutchen 1 or 2 more often. He's actually been a 3 hitter most of his career but those days are presumably over.

What the Phillies’ lineup might look like with J.T. Realmuto — and maybe Bryce...

If the Phillies sign Harper:

SS Segura (righty)

C Realmuto (righty)

RF Harper (lefty)

1B Hoskins (righty)

LF McCutchen (righty)

CF Herrera (lefty)

3B Franco (righty)

2B Hernandez (switch)

If the Phillies sign Machado:

SS Segura (righty)

3B Machado (righty)

CF Herrera (lefty)

1B Hoskins (righty)

C Realmuto (righty)

RF Williams (lefty)

LF McCutchen (righty)

2B Hernandez (switch)

[andyb]

Looking at all these lineups I really wanted a LH bat on the bench with some power. Now if they sign Harper and keep Williams we would have that. But in the Machado scenario we don't. There is a job for Mitch Walding if he can take a step forward (and maybe if the Phillies go with a 5-man bench as opposed to a 4-man bench.

C - Knapp/Other
MI - Kingery
OF - Quinn/Altherr
Franco/Williams?

[zambonir]

That seems like a lot to ask of Walding. I wouldn't be surprised if they pick up another veteran type (a la Daniel Nava or Ryan Flaherty) once they actually know what the hole is. Maybe even trade a reliever for someone, or get someone included in a Franco deal. Sean Rodriguez is also a RHB.

I wonder if the catcher contest is basically Knapp and Butera or if there will be someone else in the mix. Knapp certainly can be useful with the bat and short bench, if they are willing to use him.

[andyb]

I would not be shocked to see the backup catcher added in the last week of the season as teams figure out which Spring Training invite to keep. The job could still be Knapp's if he has a good Spring, but one has to imagine we can do better than Butera. Knapp does have a little advantage as a switch hitter on a team with few left-handed bats. Of course he needs to hit more like 2 years ago than last year.

[David_Criss]

I bet Walding sees some time in the outfield and at first base this Spring.